For the first time in 11 years, the year-on-year increase in CPI last month "turned negative". The
decline in food prices was the main reason for the decline in CPI
News from our newspaper (Reporter Zhang Qin) The latest national consumer price (CPI) data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday showed that my country’s CPI fell by 0.5% year-on-year last month.
Among them, the city fell by 0.4%, rural areas fell by 0.8%; food prices fell by 2.0%, and non-food prices fell by 0.1%.
It is reported that this is the first time that my country's monthly CPI has "turned negative" in the past 11 years.
When interpreting last month’s CPI data, Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician at the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, emphasized that “affected by a higher comparison base in the same period last year” was an important background for the year-on-year decline in CPI last month.
It is worth noting that last month's food prices changed from an increase of 2.2% in October to a decrease of 2.0%, which affected the CPI to drop by about 0.44 percentage points that month, which was the main reason for the CPI to change from rising to falling.
A reporter from Beijing Youth Daily noticed that among the food prices last month, pork prices fell by 12.5%, an increase of 9.7 percentage points from October, affecting CPI by about 0.60 percentage points; the prices of eggs, chicken, and duck fell by 19.1 points. %, 17.8% and 10.8%, the declines also expanded.
Although the price of fresh vegetables increased by 8.6% year-on-year, the increase was also 8.1 percentage points lower than that in October.
Fresh fruit is one of the few food categories whose prices have risen significantly last month, with prices rising 3.6% year-on-year, an increase of 3.2 percentage points over October.
"On the whole, with the continuous promotion of the'six stability and six guarantees' work in various regions and departments, the prices of important livelihood commodities such as pork continue to fall." According to Dong Lijuan's analysis, compared with October this year, the CPI also dropped last month 0.6%, of which food prices fell by 2.4%, affecting the CPI drop by about 0.53 percentage points.
According to analysis, with the continuous recovery of live pig production, pork prices continued to drop by 6.5% month-on-month last month; fresh vegetables and eggs were in sufficient supply, and prices fell 5.7% and 1.6% respectively.
In addition to the obvious drop in food prices, domestic non-food prices also changed from the same year-on-year level in October to a decline last month. The prices of gasoline and diesel fell by 17.9% and 19.6%, respectively.
Compared with October this year, last month, affected by the decrease in travel during the off-season, the prices of air tickets, tourism and hotel accommodation fell by 15.6%, 4.4% and 3.4% respectively.
Next year, the year-on-year increase of CPI is likely to be "U"
It is worth noting that in November, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, continued to remain stable, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, which has been the same for 5 consecutive months.
"This shows that the current price level in my country is generally stable, and the decline in CPI growth is mainly affected by the decline in pork prices." said Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank.
Lian Ping, chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum, believes that as the economy gradually enters a trending operation track, the high probability of price movement in 2021 is that the CPI will stabilize after the downward trend. There should be no suspense if the annual control is within 3%.
The overall level of prices will return to economic fundamentals, maintaining a pattern of moderate increases, and providing plenty of room for the flexible operation of monetary policy.
Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, said that this year's core CPI was high and then low compared to the same period last year, and the macroeconomic recovery next year is superimposed. It is expected that the core CPI will likely be low and high next year.
According to the year-on-year trend of pork CPI in the current month and the year-on-year trend of core CPI in the same month, it is expected that the year-on-year increase of CPI in the current month next year will show a "U"-shaped trend.
According to Xinhua News Agency/Yu Meiying