With both the apartment sales and jeonse markets showing strong strength this year, it is predicted that the unrest will continue next year due to the low interest rate environment and decrease in occupancy.
Jikbang, a real estate information company, analyzed this year's apartment sales and charter market with the same content today (7th) and presented a forecast for next year.
Jikbang introduced that Sejong had the highest rate of change in apartment sales price by province this year (January-November) based on the Korea Appraisal Board survey, with 43.64%.
Daejeon (16.01%), Gyeonggi (11.10%), and Incheon (8.80%) followed.
Jikbang analyzed that "in the case of Sejong, the second water relocation issue occurred and the increase in demand in the region increased, and small apartment transactions in Daejeon became active as internal demand increased."
This year, the nationwide apartment transaction volume reached 738,000 until October, the highest ever.
Apartment transactions, which increased from the second half of last year, slowed down in the aftermath of Corona 19 in April and May this year, but increased significantly to more than 100,000 in June and July, raising the total transaction volume.
This year, the resale of concessions fell sharply as the government adopted measures to curb short-term investment transactions.
Jikbang explained that the proportion of resale of pre-sale rights in the total transaction was 7.46% (96,752 cases), the lowest since 2016.
On the other hand, gifts have increased significantly.
Gifts accounted for 5.72% (72,349 cases) of all transactions, the highest ever.
The demand for outsiders in cities, counties, and districts was 47.49%, which was also the highest ever.
Jikbang analyzed that the nationwide apartment rental price, which turned to an increase in October last year, declined from April to May due to the aftermath of Corona 19 this year, and then the increase has been steep.
Sejong City also showed the highest rate of increase in the total price at 49.34%.
This was followed by Ulsan (12.97%), Daejeon (12.18%), Gyeonggi (8.27%), and Incheon (7.86%).
In Jeju, the rental price fell 1.29% this year.
The chartered transaction volume (as of the date of confirmation) until October was 445,000 this year, which was analyzed to be the highest since the actual transaction in 2011.
By region, the capital area (275,000 cases), the five metropolitan cities (71,000 cases), and other regions (99,000 cases) were the largest.
However, from the second half of this year, the chartered transaction volume is showing a sharp decline.
It seems that the enforcement of the Second Lease Act has also affected the volume of charter transactions.
Jikbang introduced that the number of occupants this year reached 270,996 households (410 complexes), but the results of its own survey were found to be only 22,836 households, which is about 16% less than that in next year.
By region, it was surveyed that the metropolitan area decreased from 144,000 households this year to 128,000,993 households next year, and from 126,000,410 households in the region to 98,000,843 households during the same period.
Next year, the number of occupants in Seoul is expected to be 27,18 households, 86,000,648 households in Gyeonggi, and 15,327 households in Incheon.
Jikbang said, "Next year, new apartments will be supplied in Gangnam 3 districts in Seoul, and half of the 42 complexes are reconstruction and redevelopment completed projects." I introduced it.
Jikbang cited abundant liquidity due to lower interest rates and increased money supply as the reason for the strength of the apartment sales and jeonse market this year.
At the same time, it is predicted that the market for trading and jeonse will continue to remain in general next year.
As for next year's real estate market variables, Jikbang cited stimulus measures and low interest rates due to Corona 19, reduced occupancy of new apartments, demand for remote areas that avoided regulations in the metropolitan area, extended jeonse contract period, and the effect of government real estate policies.
(Photo = provided by Jikbang, Yonhap News)