On November 27th, ICBC, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, Bank of Communications and other banks successively issued announcements stating that new customers of personal precious metal accounts will be suspended from opening trading accounts.
Many banks collectively announce the same operations at almost the same time, and unified actions are relatively rare.
Pay attention to the risks!
Many domestic banks have suspended new accounts for precious metals transactions
Regarding the reasons for suspending the account opening of new customers, the reasons given by the bank in the announcement all mentioned that the recent international precious metal market prices have been volatile, and the risks of investment transactions have increased.
ICBC also reminded that due to complex factors such as the epidemic, the current precious metals market is relatively risky. It reminds you to reasonably control the size of your positions, make trading arrangements, improve risk prevention awareness, and pay attention to risk control.
Currently, the time of suspension of new account opening varies among banks.
Since November 30, CCB has suspended the contractual account opening process for precious metals in CCB accounts (including two-way transactions) and the precious metals trading business of the individual securities exchange.
From 12:00 on November 28, 2020 Beijing time, the Bank of Communications has suspended the Bank of Communications’ book-entry precious metals, postponed transactions of personal precious metals agents and account opening of new customers of the Jinbao business.
From 24:00 on November 28, 2020 Beijing time, ICBC has suspended the opening of trading accounts for new customers of personal gold and silver accounts of ICBC’s various channels (including counter, mobile banking, online banking, and ICBC e-investment). The normal transactions of account opening customers will not be affected. From 9:00 on November 28, 2020 Beijing time, all channels of the Bank of Science and Technology (including counter, mobile banking, online banking, "ICBC Gold Banker" applet" and external cooperation will be suspended Institutions and other channels) newly opened an application for the precious metal bidding transaction business of agent individual customers.
The Agricultural Bank of China is scheduled to suspend the precious metal trading business of the bank’s account and act as an agent for the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s personal precious metal trading customers to sign and open accounts. The normal transactions of customers who have opened accounts will not be affected.
Ping An Bank announced that it will suspend the new account opening function of this business after the market closes on December 1, and the business processing of existing customers will not be affected temporarily.
China Merchants Bank stated that since November 28, it will suspend all channels (including counters, mobile banking, online banking, CMB Huijin App, etc.) two-way paper gold and silver, firm paper gold and silver, and Zhaocai gold business (as agent for Shanghai gold trading) New customers of the business) apply for opening a trading account, and the normal transactions of customers who have opened an account will not be affected.
Different from other big banks, the Bank of China adjusted the trading time of precious metals account and two-way account precious metal products.
The Bank of China stated in the announcement that due to international holidays, the Bank of China account precious metals and two-way account precious metals business will suspend quotations from 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on November 28, 2020, and at 7 a.m. Beijing time on November 30, 2020 (Monday). ：Resume quotation from 00:00.
What happened to precious metals?
Since the beginning of this year, the prices of gold and silver have fluctuated significantly.
Affected by the epidemic and global quantitative easing, the price of gold has entered a period of rapid rise, reaching a high of US$2075 per ounce.
In the past two weeks, international gold prices have fallen sharply, falling back to around US$1,800. Spot gold fell below the US$1,800 mark on the evening of the 24th, the first time since July 17 this year.
As of press time, reported 1807 US dollars / ounce.
Zong Liang, chief researcher at Bank of China, believes that as a safe-haven product, gold's decline is closely related to the international situation.
The current global situation is slowly stabilizing, and the US general election situation is basically determined. In addition, the price of gold has gone through a stage of rapid rise this year and it will take some time to consolidate.
Guotai Junan International stated that the market looked forward to a strong economic recovery to stimulate demand and push US stocks to new highs, while gold, a traditional hedging tool, fell.
Judging from the current trend, the recent epidemic in Europe has once again widened the interest rate differential between the United States and Europe, which will support the US dollar and bear gold in the short term.
Zhou Maohua, an analyst at China Everbright Bank, said that the recent sharp fall in gold is mainly due to the frequent spread of good news about vaccines, superimposed on the landing of the US general election, investors set prices for economic recovery next year in advance, and US stocks hit a record high.
In addition, this round of gold market has accumulated huge profits, and it is not ruled out that some investors will leave the market with profits during holidays and the end of the year.
Is it time to "buy the bottom"?
Lin Caiyi, deputy dean of the China Chief Economist Forum Research Institute, analyzed that the price of gold is not at a low level. The future direction of the price of gold depends on two factors: one factor is whether the dollar index will continue to fall sharply in the future, and the second factor is international Will fierce conflicts occur in the geopolitical situation?
Maike Futures said that the negative sentiment mainly comes from the important progress news of the vaccine and the expected economic recovery in the United States. These negative factors have not changed in the short-term. It is necessary to pay attention to the emergency use authorization of the vaccine approved by the United States on December 10. Formed further negative.
Therefore, before the new stimulus policy is expected in the United States, the price of precious metals will remain low and fluctuate as a whole. From a morphological point of view, it is expected that the weak situation will be difficult to change before the U.S. gold breaks upwards at 1,850 U.S. dollars per ounce.
However, the short-term rapid decline has caused the price to rebound from oversold.
Silver's early performance was relatively strong, and attention should be paid to whether there is a short-term demand for compensation.
Operationally, the short-term holdings after the reduction, pay attention to the support near the $1,800/ounce.
The report released by Goldman Sachs in mid-November maintained its optimistic view on the target price of gold and silver. Gold was bullish to US$2,300 per ounce and silver was bullish to US$30 per ounce.
Goldman Sachs believes that there is room for inflation in the near term, and the increase in solar installations is expected to support silver demand.
Bank of America’s analyst team lowered its expectations for spot gold prices. Currently, international gold prices are expected to fall to US$1,775 by the end of 2020 and then rebound at the end of 2021.
ANZ Bank set a 12-month target price for international spot gold prices at US$2,100 per ounce.
The agency believes that with the advent of the new crown virus vaccine, the possibility of a strong global economic recovery and rising risk assets will continue to increase, which may weaken the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven tool. However, the main driving factor of gold and the real interest rate will be in the future. Provide support for one year. According to the Fed's forecast of interest rates and inflation, real interest rates should continue to enter a negative range, and the strong global growth pulse should further weaken the dollar.
The agency believes that the price of gold should be traded at around US$2100 next year, but there is resistance in the short term. As the stock market continues to strengthen, investors may further withdraw from the gold ETF and turn to the stock market, and then lower the 0-3 month target to 1900 US dollars, but still keep the 12-month target price at 2100 US dollars.
Author: Zhang Yu