Bruno Le Maire has revised downwards the French growth forecasts for the year 2021. The maintenance of health rules in the coming months will weigh on the French economy.
However, the Minister of the Economy hopes for a return to pre-crisis activity by the end of 2022.
The government anticipates a weaker than expected rebound in the economy in 2021, at + 6% against + 8% previously.
These forecasts are in particular due to the maintenance of binding health protocols for part of next year, said the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire on Tuesday.
This new forecast will be incorporated into the finance bill for 2021, currently under discussion in Parliament.
Bruno Le Maire once again defended his "complementary" strategy between the recovery and the protective measures against the coronavirus taken in recent months and still existing in the budget for 2021.
Forecasts based on three factors
This hypothesis is based on three health elements: "a slowdown in economic activity of around 12%" in November with the re-containment, "the maintenance of health rules in the coming months to prevent the resumption of the epidemic" , and "no third confinement in France in 2021", he detailed during a telephone press conference.
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Faced with a weaker-than-expected economic recovery and the maintenance of health protocols beyond deconfinement and over time, certain sectors are likely to suffer the consequences of the crisis for a long time, such as hotels and restaurants or sports clubs.
The government had already worsened its recession forecast for 2020 to -11% at the end of October.
Extension of support for businesses
If the minister did not open the horizon of these professionals by evoking a reopening date, he assured that the government would extend support to these companies.
In addition to more resources for partial unemployment or exemptions from charges, he referred to a modification of the solidarity fund which could allow companies to choose "support for operating losses" according to "a percentage which remains to be determined. ", rather than the 10,000 euros currently offered.
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The support system for companies' equity, considered insufficient by many economists, could also be strengthened.
The same goes for aid to the most destitute, whose difficulties are accentuated by the crisis: "we will do what is necessary", wanted to reassure the minister, citing for example the increasing expenses for the RSA.
These measures will worsen the deficit and the debt for 2021, warned Bruno Le Maire, but the new government forecasts will not be known until early December.
The minister hopes to return by "the end of 2022" to the level of activity before the crisis.