(Economic Observation) Three key words to see China's economic report card in October
China News Agency, Beijing, November 16 (Reporter Wang Enbo) Chinese officials announced on the 16th the operation of the national economy in October.
Looking at this report card, you can find that the three key words reflect the continuous and stable recovery of China's economy.
The first one is "balance".
As China's economy continues to pick up, some imbalances in the previous recovery have also continued to improve.
On the demand side, as consumption has been more affected by the epidemic, the previous feature of domestic demand driven by investment was more prominent.
Entering October, consumer demand gradually released, superimposed on the impact of increased consumer demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival. The total retail sales of consumer goods for the month increased by 1 percentage point over the previous month, and 17 of the 18 categories of retail sales of commodities above designated size achieved growth.
At the same time, investment has also picked up steadily, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8% in the first 10 months, 1 percentage point faster than that in the first nine months.
On the production side, the service industry is speeding up to catch up with the recovery of the industry.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, pointed out that the continuous improvement in domestic demand has accelerated the recovery of service industry production. In October, the national service industry production index increased by 7.4% year-on-year, an increase of 2 percentage points from September.
In the same month, the value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 6.9% year-on-year, which also exceeded expectations and was significantly higher than the level of the same period in previous years.
The second one is "active".
Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics of China, listed a series of upward pulsating figures as a footnote to the increasing activity of various production factors in the Chinese economy.
For example, during the "October" period this year, the number of Chinese tourists reached more than 70% of the same period last year, reflecting the continued recovery of the flow of people.
In terms of capital, China's broad money M2 increased by 10.5% year-on-year at the end of October, staying at more than double digits; the narrow money M1 increased by 9.1% year-on-year, and rebounded for four consecutive months.
Fu Linghui pointed out that M1 is closely related to market transactions, and its continued rebound in growth reflects the rising economic activity.
In addition, in October, the freight volume of China's entire society increased by 7.2% year-on-year, of which road freight increased by 8.9%, reflecting the continuous improvement of national highway operations.
As a "barometer" of economic operations, the growth of corporate electricity consumption was also accelerating that month.
The third one is "take over".
Part of the traditional development momentum has been suppressed under the epidemic, and new momentum has come forward to "take over" and provide strong support for China's sustained economic growth.
In terms of new industries, in the first 10 months, the added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 5.9% year-on-year, which was significantly faster than the growth of industries above designated size; investment in high-tech industries also continued to maintain a rapid growth of 9.7%.
In terms of new business formats, under the impact of the epidemic, some companies have accelerated their transformation and continued to shift to online and offline integration.
In the first 10 months, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 16% year-on-year. Driven by this, the express delivery industry grew at a rate close to 30% in the first 10 months.
At the same time, driven by market demand, some new products have grown rapidly. In the first 10 months, the output of industrial robots increased by more than 20% year-on-year, and smart watches and 3D printing equipment also maintained rapid growth.
Based on the above key words, Fu Linghui concluded that a series of changes showed that China's economy has strong resilience and good repair capabilities.
He also made a judgment that China's economic growth in the fourth quarter may accelerate further than the second and third quarters.
But after getting this warm report card, China's economy still has challenges to deal with.
Cheng Manjiang, chief economist of Bank of China International, reminded that in the fourth quarter, two points should be paid special attention to: First, the overseas epidemic has entered the second wave of outbreaks, and there are also risks of repeated epidemics in some parts of the country. Therefore, it is necessary to avoid disturbing the economic recovery process; The room for further relaxation of monetary policy is very limited, and it is necessary to think about how to support further economic recovery.
In this context, Wen Bin suggested that the next stage should continue to consolidate the positive trend of economic and social recovery, and further increase policy support for key areas and weak links, especially for small, medium and micro enterprises, manufacturing, and those affected by the epidemic. Service industries with more difficulties must increase structural policy support to accelerate the recovery of domestic demand.
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