Chinanews, November 16th, how to evaluate the trend of consumption recovery?
The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, Fu Linghui, pointed out on the 16th that there may be three main reasons for the recovery of consumption: first, the consumption environment is improving; second, the consumption ability is improving; third, the consumption policy is exerting force.
Data map: People buy pork in supermarkets.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Jiang Qiming
The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the 16th to introduce the operation of the national economy in October 2020.
At the meeting, a reporter asked a question that although the consumption data for the month of October increased by 1 percentage point year-on-year compared with September, we also saw the forecasts of some market institutions, which were generally lower than market expectations.
And from the cumulative data of the first 10 months, it is a year-on-year decline.
How to evaluate the trend of consumption recovery, and when will consumption be expected to return to normal growth?
In this regard, Fu Linghui pointed out that consumption has played an important role in China's economic growth in recent years.
Under the impact of the epidemic this year, domestic consumption growth has indeed been affected to a certain extent. However, as the domestic epidemic prevention and control and the overall promotion of economic and social development have achieved positive results, the trend of consumption recovery continues to increase.
Fu Linghui said that from the consumption situation in October, there are several obvious characteristics:
First, the scope of consumption is expanding.
Among the 18 major categories of retail sales of commodities above designated size, 17 have maintained growth, and 9 of them have maintained double-digit growth. This aspect is expanding.
Second, while the retail sales of goods continued to improve, service consumption also continued to improve.
The retail sales of goods in October increased by 4.8% year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.
From the perspective of service consumption, this month's catering revenue increased by 0.8% year-on-year, turning positive for the first time this year.
Judging from the consumption situation during the Mid-Autumn Festival this year, the number of domestic tourists, tourism income, and box office have all recovered significantly, which shows that everyone’s consumer confidence is increasing.
Third, while online consumption maintains rapid growth, offline consumption is also recovering.
In the first 10 months, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 16% year-on-year, continuing to maintain rapid growth, which is faster than that from January to September.
Offline consumption has also shown significant improvement, with the retail sales of supermarkets above designated size achieving a 3% growth in the first 10 months.
The decline in retail sales in department stores and specialty stores has significantly narrowed, indicating that offline consumption is also recovering.
Fourth, in terms of basic living consumption, whether it is food, clothing, or use, both maintained double-digit growth. At the same time, upgraded consumption and consumption of bulk commodities have rebounded significantly.
In October, the growth of cosmetics, gold, silver and jewelry remained at double digits, and the retail sales of automobiles increased by 12%, maintaining double digits for four consecutive months.
"These conditions indicate that the recovery of consumption is good." Fu Linghui said that there may be three main reasons for the recovery of consumption: First, the consumption environment is improving, and the domestic epidemic prevention and control results are obvious, everyone. The confidence of going out to consume is increasing, which creates good conditions for the recovery of consumption.
Second, the ability to consume is improving.
As the economy recovers, employment increases, and residents' income is growing, which is conducive to improving residents' spending power.
Third, the consumption policy is exerting force.
"Since the beginning of this year, we have continued to introduce policies to promote automobile consumption and service consumption, which have strengthened the driving role of related industries and related consumption. There is also a very important feature this month. Under the influence of Hainan's outlying island tax exemption policy, 10 The monthly retail sales of duty-free shops in Hainan increased by more than two times year-on-year, indicating that the consumption policy is increasing the driving effect of consumption."
"But we must also see that the current external situation is still more complicated, the international epidemic is still spreading, and the pressure on domestic and international anti-import and internal anti-rebound is still relatively large." Fu Linghui emphasized that further promotion of consumption recovery still needs to pay. Huge efforts must continue to coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development to create good conditions for the recovery of consumption, while stabilizing employment, promoting economic recovery, enhancing consumption capacity, implementing relevant consumption policies, and promoting sustained and stable consumption. Resume development.