From K-shaped to V-shaped: How does the world economic recovery seek the "greatest common divisor"?

(Financial World) From K-shaped to V-shaped: How does the world economic recovery seek the "greatest common divisor"?

　　China News Service, Beijing, November 14 (Liu Liang) The new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought huge trauma to the world economy.

In response to this crisis, many countries have taken unprecedented measures to "rescue the market."

But at present, the V-shaped rapid recovery of the world economy has not appeared. What is presented to all countries is the K-shaped unbalanced recovery of the world economy.

　　The 2020 China Development Forum was held here recently. Many well-known economists and entrepreneurs made the above statement when discussing the topic of "how the world economy will recover from K-shaped to V-shaped".

　　Li Yang, member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the epidemic has aggravated the deep recession of the world economy.

In response to the impact of the epidemic, major global economies have launched fiscal and monetary stimulus policies on an unprecedented scale. The debt levels of some economies have broken through historical highs. The rise in global debt levels has not only increased the risks of the future financial system, but also caused the vast number of non-profit organizations. Countries that issue reserve currencies, especially developing countries, suffer from excessive liquidity.

　　Under the epidemic, the recovery of the world economy is also intensified.

Wang Yiming, vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, pointed out that developing economies are more affected by the epidemic due to financial and medical constraints.

As the epidemic continues to spread, its economic outlook has also deteriorated further.

Within advanced economies, different countries have different policies in response to the epidemic, and their economic performance is also different. For example, the economic contraction of Spain and Italy is significantly higher than the average level of advanced economies.

　　Wang Yiming said that the structural differences in the world economic recovery also caused some concerns.

For example, the epidemic has caused a greater impact on low-income groups. Loose monetary policies have pushed up financial asset prices, pushed up the wealth of high-income groups, or widened the income gap between the rich and the poor.

At the same time, the characteristics of the K-shaped recovery have also exacerbated the contradictions of social inequality and may encourage protectionism.

　　Participants believe that at present, the research and development of the new crown vaccine has not been completed, and mass production may be difficult in the short term.

With the rebound of the epidemic in many countries, the road to world economic recovery is still full of challenges and uncertainties.

Therefore, to promote the recovery of the world economy from K-shaped to V-shaped, it is necessary to seek the "greatest common divisor".

　　Strengthening dialogue and international anti-epidemic cooperation is the key to finding the "greatest common divisor."

Harvard University professor Jason Foreman pointed out that in response to the crisis, countries need to further strengthen coordination and cooperation, and give full play to the effectiveness of resource allocation in different regions and economies.

Wang Yiming also said that more than ever, the world economy needs strong international cooperation to deal with the epidemic and the challenges of global economic governance, so as to push the world economy into a stable recovery track.

　　In the process of promoting the recovery of the world economy, China and the United States, as the two most important economies in the world, cannot be ignored.

Su Shimin, chairman of the Blackstone Group, said that the current world economy urgently needs the two to work together for global leadership and coordination, especially on issues such as vaccine development and distribution. The cooperation between China and the United States will give many developing countries unable to independently develop vaccines. The country brings the gospel.

　　To promote the V-shaped recovery of the world economy, it is necessary to further cultivate emerging economic formats.

Lawrence Fink, chairman of the BlackRock Group, said that many innovative and economically resilient industries emerged during the epidemic, such as medical technology, online education, remote office, and digital sales.

As the epidemic enters a stage of normalization, cultivating these emerging economic formats can inject more vitality into future economic development.

　　Temasek International Chief Executive Di Lan believes that the epidemic provides an important window for promoting green transformation. Some countries and regions, such as China and the European Union, have targeted green development as an important development strategy.

In the future, increasing green investment and using financial technology and green finance to develop better financial products and services to meet the needs of the real economy will add new momentum to the recovery of the world economy.

　　"In order to promote world economic growth, we also need to take effective restraint measures against the uncontrolled expansion of global debt." In Li Yang's view, if countries continue to uncontrollably "amplify water" to stimulate the economy, it will lead to global debt inflation and increase global debt. Debt risk.

Therefore, countries should strengthen effective international coordination on monetary and fiscal policies to prepare for the world’s long-term debt reduction.

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