Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, November 12 (Zhang Yanzheng) During the "Double 11" carnival, e-commerce platforms such as Alibaba and JD.com continued to set transaction records, but in the secondary market, stock prices plunged for two consecutive days.
The market believes that this is related to the draft anti-monopoly guidelines on the platform economy issued by the State Administration for Market Regulation on the 10th.
The market value of Internet giants evaporates trillions of Hong Kong dollars
As of the close of Hong Kong stocks on November 11, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 6.23%.
Among them, Alibaba fell 9.8%, Meituan fell 9.67%, Jingdong fell 9.2%, and Tencent Holdings fell 7.39%.
In addition, the ETF "China Probably Internet", which tracks technology stocks listed overseas, fell 5.21%.
Specifically, Alibaba recorded a new high of 307.4 Hong Kong dollars on October 28, and has now fallen back to 248.4 Hong Kong dollars. It has fallen 14% in two days on the 10th and 11th; Meituan’s stock price reached as high as 338 on November 9th. In Hong Kong dollars, the stock price has fallen to 271 Hong Kong dollars on the 11th, and the stock price has fallen by nearly 20% in the past two days; Jingdong Group quoted 300 Hong Kong dollars per share on the 11th, and the stock price has fallen by 17% in the past two days.
In addition, Tencent Holdings just rose to HK$633 on November 9th, which was at its historical high. It fell back to HK$551 on the 11th, and its share price fell 11% in the past two days.
Based on this calculation, the four Internet giants have evaporated 2.05 trillion Hong Kong dollars in two days.
Source of Hang Seng Technology Index on November 11: Wind
On November 10, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement stating that in order to prevent and stop monopolistic activities in the platform economy, guide operators in the platform economy to operate in compliance with laws and regulations, and promote the sustainable and healthy development of the online economy, the State Administration for Market Regulation drafted the "Regarding Platform The Anti-monopoly Guidelines in the Economic Field (Draft for Solicitation of Comments)" (hereinafter referred to as the Anti-Monopoly Guidelines), and openly solicit opinions from the public.
Hu Gang, deputy secretary-general of the Rule of Law Committee of the Internet Society of China, said in an interview with the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, "I have never seen an Internet-related law produce such a large fluctuation in the stock price of the industry. However, this can also explain this. The importance of policies.” He said that the promulgation of antitrust guidelines is an important part of the nation’s Internet governance series, which also means that antitrust laws have taken a historic step from abstract to concrete.
In Hu Gang's view, in the past ten years, China's top Internet platforms have grown bigger and bigger, and many small and medium-sized Internet platforms have lost their living space under monopolistic terms such as "choose one out of two".
"In a normal and diverse ecosystem, there are not only big trees but also many small trees and bushes. In the current Internet industry system, only big trees are seen, but small trees are not seen. This is very abnormal. phenomenon."
The special researcher of the E-commerce Research Center of the Net Economics and the lawyer Dong Yizhi of Shanghai Zhengce Law Firm said that the anti-monopoly issue of Chinese Internet companies has indeed reached a critical time point, and the regulatory authorities have to make a choice.
During the “Double 11” promotion period, the guideline may be more targeted, and it is also a “warning” to the platform, not to do “excessive” things, and not to act arbitrarily. It is also necessary to consider the fairness and justice of the entire society and create a good market. Competitive order.
The platform economy's anti-monopoly hammer "big data kills familiarity"
In fact, as early as the release of the draft anti-monopoly guidelines, on November 6, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the Central Cyberspace Administration of China, and the State Administration of Taxation jointly convened a guidance meeting to regulate the administration of online economic order, and 27 companies were Major Internet platform companies have put forward regulatory requirements.
For example, it must not abuse its dominant market position to exclude and restrict competition; it must not abuse its dominant market position, monopolistic agreements, and illegally conduct operator concentration; it must not abuse its dominant position to force merchants to "choose one of two" and choose the platform for operators on the platform. The behavior imposes unreasonable restrictions or imposes unreasonable conditions.
The draft of the "Anti-Monopoly Guidelines" for comments even made clear provisions on issues such as platform "choose one", big data completion, low-price dumping, and bundling.
Taking "big data to kill familiarity" as an example, the draft for comments clearly stated that operators in the platform economy field with market dominance have no justifiable reason to deal with counterparties with the same trading conditions, based on big data and algorithms, according to the payment of counterparties Ability, consumption preferences, usage habits, etc., the implementation of differential transaction prices or other transaction conditions, or the implementation of differential transaction prices or other transaction conditions for new and old counterparties, is the implementation of differential treatment, which excludes or restricts market competition.
Hu Gang pointed out that problems such as big data maturity and low-price dumping are essentially privacy protection issues.
"Originally, from the production end to the consumer end, it may have to go through the first-level and second-level links of wholesalers and retailers. Now, the intermediary link has become an Internet platform. The platform controls the bargaining power of suppliers through data, including entering Fees, transaction commissions, etc. In addition, the platform can also use technical means to determine which prices consumers can see."
"When an Internet company grows into a giant involving all walks of life, the platform will use the collected information to quickly open new areas. For consumers and businesses, this process involves great risks, such as accurate push Lending information, consumption-inducing information, etc. After the anti-monopoly guidelines are officially issued, they will effectively protect the right of SME operators and consumers to choose platforms." Hu Gang said.
Is it worth buying the bottom of the stock price?
For the Internet giant's stock price decline in the past few days, some investors are happy and some are worried.
Some investors said that they "rush, buy the bottom", some said that "there will be a big rise after a big drop", and some people are on the sidelines.
Guotai Junan analyzed that the release of this draft of opinions indicates that companies with monopoly status in the Internet platform economy will begin to be supervised by relevant departments. In the long run, it will be beneficial to the continued operation and healthy development of businesses on the platform. New entrants It is expected to stimulate market vitality and promote the industry to further develop technology and explore new economic models.
However, in the short term, the profitability and industry barriers of related companies will be impaired. The valuation of companies with platform economy as the main business model, such as Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com, will be frustrated, and the overall Internet sector will also be affected accordingly.
Hu Gang pointed out that many platforms have previously hyped the concept of sharing economy and digital economy, and corporate valuations have obtained a high premium. In fact, there are a lot of bubbles in the middle.
"The capital market serves the real economy. What good products or services the platform provides for users can determine its actual value."
Well-known economist Song Qinghui analyzed the client of Sino-Singapore Jingwei that the Internet industry relies heavily on the expansion of the customer base, and there is great uncertainty in valuation and bubbles are prone to occur.
As the industry gradually becomes more formal and investors become more rational, the "bubble" of high valuations of Internet giants may be squeezed.
After the promulgation of the anti-monopoly law on the platform economy, the negative impact on its earnings expectations has also been significant.
In the short term, the earnings of related companies are expected to be affected to a certain extent.
"From a mid-to-long-term perspective, the above-mentioned technology stocks have a certain investment value, but the specific value remains to be seen. Now, it is not worth investors to buy the bottom. Only after the bubble is squeezed can it be expected to release a certain value space." Song Qinghui said.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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