(Financial World) The "rising" of the epidemic intensifies the pressure of tourism recovery in emerging market countries
China News Service, Beijing, November 10 (Liu Liang) As the new crown pneumonia epidemic has "rised" again in many countries around the world recently, the recovery of tourism in emerging market countries is facing severe external pressure.
The International Finance Association (IIF) predicts that the sharp drop in tourism revenue inflows will affect the balance of payments of countries that rely on tourism.
Affected by the extensive lockdown measures against the epidemic, the number of tourists in most emerging market countries remained at a low level in the first half of this year.
According to a report released by the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the number of international tourist arrivals in the first half of the year plummeted by 65% year-on-year, which translates to an estimated loss of US$460 billion in export revenue.
At the beginning of the second half of the year, as the epidemic situation eased and many countries restarted their economies, the tourism industry temporarily ushered in a short-term recovery. However, the recent severe rebound of the epidemic in many countries has once again cast a shadow over the prospects for the tourism industry's recovery.
Research data from IIF in recent months shows that the relaxation of summer travel restrictions in Europe has resulted in short-term growth in tourism revenue. However, under the new round of epidemic, major European countries have implemented blockade measures and the tourism industry is struggling to recover.
In Asia, as tourist attractions in many countries continue to maintain consistent strict measures, there has been no real recovery in recent months.
IIF predicts that during this epidemic, the inflow of tourism revenue will further significantly affect the GDP growth of emerging market countries, especially for countries and regions that rely heavily on tourism.
Among them, Cambodia, Georgia, Croatia, Lebanon and Thailand are expected to be the most affected.
In addition, the foreign exchange reserves of these countries are also under tremendous pressure.
IIF predicts that the decline in tourism revenue will exacerbate the balance of payments imbalances in emerging market countries.
Small economies that rely on tourism are the most affected, and larger emerging market economies such as Thailand, South Africa, Malaysia and Egypt are also unavoidable.
Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist of IIF, pointed out that the collapse of the tourism industry has exacerbated the external pressure brought about by the sharp decline in commodity exports.
At present, the global economic downturn has continued to depress external demand, and the prices of commodities have also been affected. This has also put pressure on emerging market countries that rely on commodities.
In view of the risk aversion in global financial markets under the epidemic, the IIF predicts that some countries may experience net capital outflows, which will further increase the need for balance of payments adjustments in these countries.
In the IIF's view, although the commodity balance of many emerging market countries has improved, the service industry's balance of payments has deteriorated sharply or aggravated the loss of foreign exchange reserves. It is expected that Turkey, Tunisia and Qatar will be significantly affected.
The epidemic has not only severely hit the tourism industry, but its impact has also spread to the aviation and transportation industry.
Affected by the severe shrinkage of flight traffic, the International Air Transport Association predicts that the economic losses of global airlines this year will reach 84 billion U.S. dollars, and this year's revenue is expected to be 419 billion U.S. dollars, only half of last year.
IIF expects major international shipping centers such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to be greatly affected.
At present, the epidemic in many European countries and the United States is still spreading.
IIF pessimistically predicts that the tourism industry may not fully recover in 2021.
The continued spread of the epidemic will intensify external pressure on emerging market countries, and will further challenge the balance of payments of countries that rely on tourism.
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