Chinanews Client Beijing, November 10 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) On the 10th, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October.

Many agencies predict that as pork prices fall sharply, the year-on-year increase in CPI may narrow to less than 1%.

CPI growth chart.

From the National Bureau of Statistics

CPI year-on-year increase or less than 1%

  With the weak rise of the "Second Brothers", the CPI increase in September fell sharply to 1.7% year-on-year, returning to the "1 Era" after a lapse of 18 months.

  What is the trend of pork prices in October?

How will the increase in CPI change?

  According to the monitoring of the National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in October, the average wholesale price of pork (the average wholesale price of white strips of pork) was 42.50 yuan/kg, a decrease of 10.3% from the previous month, and a decrease of 4.7% year-on-year. .

  "As of the 4th week of October, pork prices have fallen for 8 consecutive weeks compared to the previous month, and have declined since the second week of October." The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs conducted fixed-point monitoring of the country's 500 county fairs.

  "Food prices have been significantly weaker since October, and the weekly price index of edible agricultural products has dropped from the previous month." Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications, said that the price of pork has dropped significantly from the previous month, and the prices of beef and mutton have dropped. The month-on-month negative price growth will affect the CPI significantly.


  "It is expected that the year-on-year increase of CPI in October will be significantly narrowed, and may be between 0.5-0.9%, which is the median value of 0.7%." Liu Xuezhi said.

Yinhe Securities macro analyst Xu Dongshi predicts that the CPI will increase by 0.8% year-on-year in October. “Considering some of the new price increases, it is difficult to make an accurate estimate, and the fluctuation range is 0.7%-0.9%.”

  "Affected by the drop in pig prices, which significantly lowered the CPI, the year-on-year growth rate of the CPI in October is expected to drop to around 0.5% from 1.7% in the previous month, and it may go down further in November." The CICC macro team believes.

  According to Flush ifind statistics, 25 institutions have an average forecast of 0.87% for the October CPI year-on-year increase.

If the above average forecast is fulfilled, the year-on-year increase in CPI in October will drop significantly from September, and it will return to below 1% in 42 months after March 2017.

The picture shows the pork section in a supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing.

Photo by Xie Yiguan, China News Network reporter

Pork fell below 20 yuan a catty, will the downward trend of CPI continue?

  Are pork prices continuing to fall?

Will the CPI increase continue to fall?

It has become a concern of many netizens.

  According to the “National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System” monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from October 29 to November 5, the price of pork was 39.22 yuan per kilogram, successfully falling below the 40 yuan mark, down 2.1% month-on-month and 24.8% year-on-year.

  "In the first three quarters, 12,500 large-scale pig farms were newly built and put into production, and 13,400 vacant-scale pig farms were re-bred. By the end of September, the national live pig stock reached 370 million, which was restored to 84% of the end of 2017; the stock of capable sows Reached 38.22 million heads, returning to 86% at the end of 2017." Wei Baigang, Chief Economist of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs introduced.

  Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, revealed that the pork supply situation will get better and better in the coming period, and he is confident that the annual pig production capacity will be basically restored to near normal levels.

  "The recovery process of live pig production capacity is accelerating, and the high base effect is superimposed on the increase in supply. The price of pork will continue to fall in the future, and it will drive the year-on-year increase of food prices. In addition, seasonal factors and climate factors will cause the price of vegetables and fresh fruits to rise. Continue.” China Merchants Bank Research Institute believes.

  "In terms of non-food, the domestic'wide credit' policy will provide a boost to non-food prices. Although the gradual recovery in consumption has driven prices in some industries, but under the restrictions of normalized epidemic prevention and control requirements, it is difficult for the non-food item of CPI to increase year-on-year. A sharp rebound.” China Merchants Bank Research Institute pointed out that the downward trend in CPI growth during the year will continue.