PMI has been in the expansion zone for 8 consecutive months, and the economy has started steadily and positively in the fourth quarter
Manufacturing "Popular Red" Adds Color to China's Economic Recovery (International Forum)
With the continued efforts of various policies and measures to do a good job in the "six stability" work and implement the "six guarantees" task, China's economy continues to stabilize and recover.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 31, China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 51.4% in October, which has been continuously above the threshold since March, and the overall manufacturing industry has continued to pick up.
At present, the haze of the new crown pneumonia epidemic still looms over the global economy.
As the world’s second largest economy, China’s economy started steadily in the fourth quarter, sending positive signals and injecting confidence and hope into the recovery of the world economy.
Foreign media quickly caught the warm current of the economy and pushed this good news to the international public opinion field.
"The manufacturing industry is returning to its pre-epidemic level"
PMI is hailed as a barometer of economic changes, which is statistically weighted by five big data such as order volume, production, employees, distribution, and inventory.
The US "Business Insider Network" reported on November 2 that PMI is a common indicator for monitoring economic operations. It is generally considered that PMI is lower than 45% as an economic downturn, and during economic expansion, PMI is often above 50%.
China's official manufacturing PMI index for October was 51.4%, indicating that China's economy is developing in the direction of steady growth.
In addition to the official data, an October China PMI index released by a private organization has also attracted widespread attention from foreign media.
According to a Reuters report on November 2, the simultaneous improvement of supply and demand has driven the continued upturn of the Chinese economy.
According to data jointly released by Caixin and Markit on November 2, after seasonal adjustment, China’s PMI rose to 53.6 in October, which was higher than the median of 53 estimated by Reuters survey and set the highest level since February 2011. .
The new order index has increased significantly, and companies have a strong willingness to replenish inventory.
According to reports, as domestic demand continues to expand, China's economy is rapidly recovering from the negative impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
At the same time, the continuous expansion of PMI means that China's manufacturing industry is gradually returning to the level before the outbreak.
The US Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) analyzed that there is a certain gap between the two versions of the PMI index because in the official survey, large state-owned enterprises accounted for a large proportion, while the PMI index released by the private organization survey , Private SMEs account for a larger proportion.
This means that China's domestic manufacturing market is now more dynamic.
According to data released by Caixin, China's economy continues to improve in the industrial sector and has achieved positive growth for six consecutive months. Operators of various factories and mines have also doubled their confidence in the future production and operation of their enterprises, reaching the highest level in several years.
According to the website of the British "Independent", Bill Adams of the US PNC Financial Services Group said in a report: "The manufacturing industry is leading China's economic recovery."
"China is the biggest exception among the major global markets that have been hit by the epidemic this year." A report entitled "China Wins the Global Economic Game" published on the website of the Spanish newspaper "National" stated that China's GDP curve has achieved the long-awaited The V-shaped recovery is currently far ahead of the rest of the world.
"The key is to quickly control the epidemic"
A press release issued on November 2 by the Market Research Corporation of the United Kingdom pointed out that the increase in the PMI value is supported by the total number of new businesses. The overall growth of the new business during the month has accelerated significantly, setting the strongest growth rate since November 2010.
In addition, in order to meet the growing demand for production and operation, manufacturers have increased their purchases accordingly, a considerable increase.
Purchasing inventory has also risen accordingly. Although the growth rate is small, it is already the highest since July 2016.
On the other hand, due to the need to deliver orders to customers, finished goods inventory dropped slightly.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the support measures introduced by the Chinese government have boosted the manufacturing industry, and there has been a partial rebound in international market demand.
With the development of consumption promotion activities in various places, the eight-day National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays also further boosted national consumption expenditure.
The Spanish "Economist" website published an article on October 31 that the German Allianz Research Company pointed out that China's exports have unexpectedly increased this year, and the trade balance has obviously made a positive contribution to economic growth.
"Economic growth reflects the effectiveness of China's epidemic prevention and control through strict isolation measures and large-scale population tracking and testing. It is also the result of the Chinese government's multiple measures to restore sound economic performance." Spain According to the analysis on the website, the key to China's economic recovery lies in quickly controlling the epidemic.
After the outbreak, the Chinese government adopted strict prevention, control and isolation measures.
For other countries, this was unimaginable at the time.
In addition, in order to inject new vitality into the sluggish economy, the Chinese government has introduced a series of measures to support production.
Japan’s Kyodo News website published an article on November 2 that in the Pearl River Delta region of China, which is known as the “world factory,” including many Japanese companies, the operating methods of companies have undergone significant changes after experiencing the epidemic.
"All employees must wear masks." This is the unanimous reply from the heads of Japanese companies that set up factories in Guangzhou, Foshan, Shenzhen, Dongguan and other cities.
The report also pointed out that due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, many companies are unable to sustain their operations.
To this end, some local governments have provided subsidies to enterprises.
For example, an electronic parts manufacturer in Foshan received a "resumption subsidy" from the local government.
It is reported that the applicant enterprise can receive a one-time funding subsidy of RMB 50,000.
In addition, some local governments have also reduced or exempted companies’ utility bills.
Thanks to this measure, Guangzhou Matsushita Air Conditioning Co. has reduced operating costs by 5%-6%.
"Accelerate the process of world economic recovery"
The French newspaper Le Figaro reported that as the overall market conditions have improved strongly, Chinese manufacturers have increased their confidence in the output prospects in the next 12 months, and their optimism has risen to the highest point since August 2014. It is generally believed that the new crown pneumonia epidemic The negative impact on 2021 will be weakened, and the global economic environment will usher in an improvement.
Elliott Clark, senior economist at Westpac Bank of Australia, said: "The basic details show that the new growth stage that China is entering will be strong and resilient." Analysts at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia said: "In the consumption of major commodities Among the countries, China is still the only country whose industrial production is higher than the level before the epidemic."
The strong recovery of Chinese manufacturing has boosted global confidence.
"China's economic recovery is quite fast." said Julian Evans-Prichard, an analyst at Capital International Macroeconomics Consulting in the United Kingdom. "Due to the rapid development of the labor market, consumers have regained confidence and fiscal stimulus still exists. We believe that China’s GDP will return to the path before the epidemic at the end of the year, faster than any other large economy."
China's economic recovery has expanded from the industrial sector to the consumer sector, injecting greater impetus to boost the world's total demand.
According to the German "Business Daily" report, in the third quarter of this year, Mercedes-Benz's sales in China increased by more than 23% year-on-year, and profits accounted for more than one-third of the company's total profits; BMW sales in China increased by 30% year-on-year; Audi achieved a The best performance since entering the Chinese market.
According to Japan's "Yomiuri Shimbun" report, if China's economy continues to recover, not only will the performance of foreign companies entering the Chinese market improve, but it will also accelerate the recovery of the world economy.
According to the US Consumer News and Business Channel website, Southeast Asian countries are likely to benefit from China’s economic rebound because China accounts for the “largest share” of exports from the region.
Reuters reported that Asia is beginning to see signs of economic recovery thanks to China’s economic recovery.
The early recovery of the Chinese economy also gave Japan a sigh of relief.
As of September this year, Japan’s exports to China have soared by 14%, the largest increase in more than two years, driven by strong demand for China’s non-ferrous metals, chip manufacturing equipment and automobiles.
Quan Dejian, an economist at UOB Bank of Singapore, said: "The Chinese economy is returning to normal, which bodes well for investor confidence."