How does the constant rise of the RMB affect the money bag?
The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has appreciated by 8.8% since the end of May; experts say that the value of RMB asset investment has further highlighted
At the end of May, it would take about 72,000 yuan to change 10,000 US dollars, and now only about 66,000 yuan.
After 5 months, 6000 yuan was saved.
Behind this is a rapid appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar.
Wind data shows that on May 27, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar began to "counterattack" from the year low of 7.1954. As of 17:00 on November 9, it was reported at 6.5626, a cumulative increase of 6328 points, an increase of 8.8%.
In the past five months, the renminbi has fluctuated against the euro, yen, Hong Kong dollar and other currencies.
"Throughout the world, for the time being, only the mainland is out of the impact of the epidemic. Coupled with economic recycling policies, the mainland's economic growth will lead the world and will stimulate the renminbi to continue to strengthen." Hong Kong citizen Mr. Huang and his wife told reporters that they are optimistic about the next trend of the renminbi.
Industry insiders believe that the U.S. election will further weigh on the U.S. dollar. In the short term, the RMB exchange rate has room for appreciation, but the mid- to long-term exchange rate trend still faces many uncertainties.
Since the end of May, the RMB has appreciated by 8.8% against the U.S. dollar
From the Spring Festival to May this year, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated and devalued due to the economic impact of the epidemic.
On May 27, the offshore renminbi fell to a year low of 7.1954 against the US dollar.
However, as the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled and the resumption of work and production has accelerated, the yuan has started a round of rapid appreciation.
As of 17:00 on November 9, the offshore renminbi was quoted at 6.5626 against the US dollar, a cumulative increase of 6,328 points or 8.8% in about 5 months.
The offshore RMB against the US dollar has also returned to above the 6.6 mark again since June 2018.
It is worth mentioning that both the regulation and the market have paid attention to the strong momentum of the RMB and adjusted the use of some countercyclical tools.
First, on October 12, the Central Bank announced that it would lower the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales business to 0; on October 27, the China Foreign Exchange Trade System notified some recent quoting banks to take the initiative to change the quotation model of the central parity of RMB against the US dollar. "Countercyclic factor" fades out to use.
From the past, these two tools can have a certain stabilizing effect on the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate. However, the rare stalemate in the US general election further dragged down the US dollar index and boosted the offshore RMB against the US dollar.
Wind data shows that from the U.S. election day (November 3) to the last trading day of the week (November 6), the U.S. dollar index has fallen below the 94 and 93 marks one after another, and the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar has risen from 6.7 to 6.6. .
The increase in other currencies is slightly smaller, and the exchange experience is not obvious
However, during the five-month period, the renminbi did not have the same increase against other currencies.
"In June, the renminbi against the euro was about 7.77, and now it is 7.84. In August, the euro rose by a wave, reaching 8.26." The son of Beijing Min Wang graduated with a postgraduate degree in France this year. He has not yet returned to his country for an internship in France. The husband will also remit living expenses regularly.
He told the Shell Finance reporter that he purchases foreign exchange directly on mobile banking, remitting 1,000-1,500 euros at a time. Now, compared with June, for every 1,000 euros purchased, the difference is only about 100 yuan.
Since June, the exchange rate of the renminbi against the Australian dollar has fluctuated within a narrow range of 4.65-4.8.
Ms. Ge, who caught up with the previous round of appreciation of the Australian dollar, told Shell Finance reporters that in the first half of the year, she changed the Australian dollar equivalent to 10,000 yuan and planned to go out to play, but was affected by the epidemic and did not make it. When the renminbi, the Australian dollar appreciated by about 10%, unexpectedly made a difference of about 1,000 yuan.
"Later, it didn't go up or down again, and I didn't buy it again." Ms. Ge said.
Overseas residents are optimistic about the short-term investment return of RMB
“Foreign exchange exchange has indeed increased a lot in recent months, and friends around me have also had a lot of inquiries. Perhaps this year, Hong Kong’s new stocks are relatively active, but during the epidemic, the demand for investment has increased. On the other hand, the foreign exchange market should be volatile. It is relatively large. In just two weeks, the renminbi against the Hong Kong dollar can be priced from 880:1000 to almost 863:1000, attracting many investors who like foreign currency reserves to exchange.” Mr. Huang and his wife in Hong Kong believe that at least the second half of the year to next year In China, the renminbi will continue to strengthen.
Regarding the asset allocation strategy, Mr. Huang and his wife said that they would first hold RMB in the short-term, and there would still be relatively considerable returns in short-term investment. At the same time, considering the large volatility of the foreign exchange market, it is more ideal to be conservative in all-round asset allocation, such as taking advantage of the bargain price. Buy dollar savings for financial management.
In addition to holding foreign exchange, they also carry out asset decentralization by purchasing insurance and so on.
Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, said a few days ago that after long-term exchanges with overseas investors, they are basically optimistic about the exchange rate of the local currency, so they like to buy more risky assets.
Li Chao said that the appreciation of the renminbi is also beneficial to the bond market because overseas investors will also increase their allocation in this area.
It is worth mentioning that recently, a number of banks announced that they will lower the interest rates of some small deposits in foreign currencies in China.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, told the Beijing News Shell Finance reporter that in the next stage, foreign currency deposit rates will be in line with the international market, and the appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar will make domestic residents and foreign investors more and more willing to hold With RMB assets, the growth of foreign exchange deposits is expected to slow down in the next stage, and the value of RMB assets investment will be further highlighted.
The key to the exchange rate lies in national strength, technological development, etc.
Has the RMB exchange rate entered a new cycle of rising?
What disturbance factors are still facing?
Xie Yunliang, chief macro analyst at Minsheng Securities, believes that the continued stalemate in the US general election will have an impact on the RMB exchange rate.
However, in the long run, national technological development, core competitiveness and national strength are the keys behind the exchange rate.
Guan Tao, global chief economist at Bank of China Securities, believes that the recent appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is a normal volatility. Whether it can enter a new cycle in the future depends on whether the fundamentals can show obvious and sustainable improvement.
For example, can we smoothly transition to the new normal, from high-speed growth to high-quality development, the "dual cycle" new development pattern, and the initial establishment of new competitive advantages.
He also said that the factors affecting the appreciation and devaluation of the renminbi exist at the same time, but different factors prevail at different times.
In the process of appreciation and devaluation, there is a trade-off relationship, especially after the exchange rate tends to be managed in equilibrium, the RMB exchange rate may open and close and fluctuate greatly.
Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office in late October that under the combined effect of internal and external factors, the future RMB exchange rate is expected to maintain two-way fluctuations and basic stability at a reasonable and balanced level.
Cheng Weimiao, Shell Financial Reporter, Beijing News