Before 2025, my country's assisted driving and autonomous driving market will grow by over 30% annually
Our reporter Jinfeng
How long will it take for vehicle-road coordination? What is the future travel picture?
On the afternoon of November 6, at the "Fourth Industrial Revolution and Smart Travel Forum" at the CIIE, industry experts from Ford, Baidu, BMW, Qualcomm, and Xiaoma Zhixing focused on travel and imagined the future.
According to the research and analysis of JP Morgan Chase, from 2019 to 2025, China's L1 to L5 assisted driving and autonomous driving market will achieve an average annual growth rate of 33% and reach approximately US$7.1 billion in 2025.
The four elements of intelligent networked vehicles, namely sensors, algorithms, high-precision maps and three-electric systems, will be hot investment directions in the future.
Smart travel, the journey will be filled with parent-child time
On October 11, a "5G smart bus" loaded with "CRRC Electric 5G Autonomous Driving Mobility Platform" was put into trial operation in Tongguanyao Ancient Town, Changsha City; 10 days later, the country's first normalized 5G unmanned bus was in operation. The Suzhou High-speed Rail New City is officially in operation...Unmanned driving smart travel seems to be within reach.
What surprises will the future of smart travel bring us?
At the forum, experts have different opinions.
Nie Yuren, deputy general manager of Baidu's intelligent driving business group and strategic cooperation, imagines the future as one-stop, unmanned, and integration of vehicles and roads.
"There will definitely be a super APP. The common people enter their destinations on the APP and connect them in various ways. They can purchase tickets and automatically settle the tickets." According to Wang Qiong, vice president of R&D, Brose China, The relationship between people is similar to the evolutionary relationship between mobile phones and people. Mobile phones used to be just for making calls, but they are now part of our body.
Similarly, the car used to perform various functions, but in the future it may complete our actions. It knows human needs, can be personified, and provide various services according to human needs.
Xu Hao, head of R&D at Qualcomm China, said that in the future, driving can be done as a kind of entertainment. If autonomous driving can completely deliver you to your destination very effectively and safely, then your journey to the destination is both parent-child. The process of being together is also the process of entertaining with family and friends.
During the long commute to get off work, how to use the car as a kind of entertainment is a problem we need to solve.
Autonomous driving applications above L4 level may take more than 10 years
A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. For smart travel, vehicle-road collaboration and bicycle intelligence go hand in hand.
How far is it to achieve vehicle-road collaboration?
For this issue, the timetable given by the on-site experts is highly consistent.
Dong Zhigang, Senior Vice President of SAP China, Hou Xinhai, Vice President of Ford China, Head of Information Technology and Internet of Vehicles Technology, Yao Xiaorong, Vice President of Government Affairs of BMW Group Greater China, and Wang Qiong all believe that with government investment and infrastructure construction, the next 3 years —In about 5 years, vehicle-road synergy may be promoted.
"Beijing's Yizhuang is doing a car-road synergy test, and Guangzhou's Huangpu District is also doing it. It's just a matter of policy promotion to promote it in a large area. I personally think that it may be pushed out in a large area in about 3-5 years. Say.
The future of autonomous driving, which is accompanied by vehicle-road collaboration, is still a sea of stars.
"Autonomous driving still has technical difficulties. In most of the usage scenarios, it is difficult to make 100% mistakes. And during testing, you will find that it is easy to make equipment, but it is difficult to commercialize and make it cheap. In other words, it will take one or two years for each part from R&D to formulating mature standards, testing to commercialization. Therefore, it will take 3-5 years to make the public feel the feeling of autonomous driving. It may take 10 years or more to realize L4 and L5 level automatic driving." Xu Hao said.
Wang Qiong provided a different idea. He believes that the laws and regulations of autonomous driving are not yet perfect. For example, the responsible party is not clear. If the infrastructure and laws can be improved simultaneously, it will take about 10 years.
To discuss vehicle-road synergy, bicycle intelligence is the influencing factor.
Wang Haojun, vice president of Xiaoma Zhixing and general manager of the Shanghai company, believes that for L4 and L5 autonomous driving, vehicle-road collaboration and bicycle intelligence need to go hand in hand to achieve large-scale landing or operation.
As far as vehicle iterations are concerned, there are at least 2-3 generations of iterations, and the development cycle of each generation is 3-4 years.
Although autonomous driving has a long way to go, the beautiful imagination it brings to the future has also attracted the attention of capital.
Huang Jian, President of JP Morgan Global Corporate Bank China, said, “The four elements of intelligent connected cars, namely sensors, algorithms, high-precision maps and three-electric systems, will be hot investment directions in the future. At present, Chinese car companies are focusing on smart Connected cars have a certain leading edge. They have cooperated with domestic Internet giants to launch some popular models, and joint venture car companies are also actively catching up."