Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, November 4, 4th, data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center showed that the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar rose by 186 points to 6.6771.

The median price of the previous trading day was reported at 6.6957, the closing price of onshore RMB at 16:30 was reported at 6.6884, and the closing price at 23:30 was at 6.6770.

Source: China Foreign Exchange Trading Center website

　　In the past October, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has increased for five consecutive months.

Foreign media quoted analysts as saying that relatively good economic basic fabrics in the medium term still support the yuan to maintain a strong trend.

The central bank resets the risk reserve for distant purchases to zero and “fade out” the countercyclical factor. This is expected to further enhance the exchange rate flexibility of the RMB. However, as the impact of the general election is slowly digested, the volatility of RMB options will likely fluctuate and fall.

　　Zhang Wei, chief researcher of Kunlun Health Asset Management, told Xinhua Finance that, as there are still some variables in the results of the current US presidential election, the US dollar index is likely to rebound in the short term.

　　Zhang Wei said that since the beginning of this year, affected by the quantitative easing of the US dollar and the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet, the decline in the US dollar index has forced the appreciation of the yuan.

The United States must first solve the problem of high epidemics and also need to pass a large number of stimulus bills to repair the economy, but the source of funds needed to stimulate the economy mainly depends on the issuance of national debt, which will suppress the US dollar index.

The short-term dollar rebound is mainly due to market effects, not macroeconomic factors.

Therefore, affected by the "uncertainty expectations" factors, the US dollar index and the RMB against the US dollar may both reverse in the short term.

　　Regarding the follow-up RMB exchange rate trend, Ping An Securities believes that the current RMB appreciation is close to full, and the upper limit of appreciation may be around 6.5.

In the medium and long term, it cannot be concluded that the US dollar has entered a long-term weakening cycle, but if this is the case, the fluctuation center of the RMB exchange rate will appreciate.

From a policy perspective, China will still face the possibility of continued capital inflows, and there are still many supporting factors for the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate.

Therefore, it is necessary to make policy preparations for the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate, and increasing the flexibility of volatility rather than increasing unilateral expectations should be the top priority of the policy.

　　The Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Bank report believes that the volatility of the renminbi is expected to increase in November.

However, it is still expected that the renminbi will appreciate in the mid-term. By the end of the year, the renminbi is likely to fluctuate in the 6.6-6.9 range, but the renminbi may rise to 6.55 in the next year.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)