Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, November 5 (Wang Yongle) 24:00 on the 5th, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will be opened.
Many agencies predict that domestic oil prices will fall in this price adjustment cycle.
If the reduction is realized, the domestic retail price of refined oil will usher in the fifth drop this year.
Oil prices may fall for the fifth time this year
Recently, international oil prices rebounded slightly after hitting a new low since June.
According to the data monitoring model of Zhuo Chuang Information, as of the close of November 3, the rate of change of crude oil on the 9th working day of this cycle closed at -4.23%, corresponding to the portion above the floor price or a reduction of 165 yuan/ton.
New longitude and latitude in the data map
Meng Peng, a refined oil analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, pointed out that this round of reduction in the retail price limit of refined oil has been “fixed.
Meng Peng analyzed that this pricing cycle was affected by factors such as the increasing epidemic in Europe and the United States and the increase in Libyan crude oil production, and the international crude oil price once showed a continuous sharp decline.
Although at the end of the cycle, due to the impact of OPEC and its production reduction allies or the postponement of the implementation of the relaxation of production restrictions, international oil prices rebounded, but the rate of change of crude oil was still deeply negative, so at 24:00 on November 5, the domestic retail price of refined oil was lowered It is irreversible.
Jin Lianchuang refined oil analyst Zou Xuelian also believes that the current round of international oil prices fell below 40 US dollars per barrel, and domestic refined oil price adjustments once again opened the "floor price" mechanism, but the corresponding decline above 40 US dollars per barrel will still be realized.
According to Jinlianchuang's calculations, as of November 4, the average price of reference crude oil was 39.65 US dollars/barrel, with a rate of change of -6.20%, and the corresponding retail price of gasoline and diesel should be reduced by 180 yuan/ton.
The so-called "floor price" refers to the new "Petroleum Price Management Measures" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission at the beginning of 2016. When the price of crude oil in the international market is lower than 40 US dollars per barrel (inclusive), The processing profit rate calculates the price of refined oil.
Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client noticed that since this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 20 adjustments, including 12 strandings, 4 downward adjustments, and 4 upward adjustments. Gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by RMB 1,780/ton and RMB 1,720/ton respectively. .
Among them, six times failed to adjust due to triggering the "floor price" protection mechanism.
If this round of lowering expectations is fulfilled, then domestic oil prices will be lowered for the fifth time this year.
Variables remain in the next round of price adjustments
According to the Wall Street Journal's Chinese website on the 4th, oil officials and consultants from Saudi Arabia and other OPEC member states are considering further reductions in oil production due to the current increase in new crown cases in Western countries and the new economic blockade in Europe. , Which may further restrain oil demand.
According to Reuters' Chinese website, an OPEC source and a source familiar with Russian ideas said that OPEC and Russia are considering a more substantial production cut early next year in an effort to support the oil market.
Zou Xuelian believes that the severe form of the new crown epidemic in Europe and America, and the blockade of some countries again, will hinder the recovery of oil demand, and oil prices will remain under pressure.
Multiple factors affect the market, and the trend of international oil prices is quite variable. Therefore, it is still uncertain whether the next round of price adjustment window can be opened.
The lack of clear guidance on the news side makes it difficult to eliminate the wait-and-see atmosphere in the market.
Zhongyu Information analyst Meng Xiao also believes that there is still a lot of uncertainty in the crude oil market, and that international oil prices may still drop. The crude oil market continues to be under pressure in the short term.
Meng Xiao also pointed out that although the previous round of domestic refined oil price adjustments fulfilled their expectations, after entering a new round of pricing cycle, the low-season gasoline consumption market across the country continued to be weak, showing a weak trend.
Under the pressure of oversupply, the gasoline and diesel market in the latter two months will hardly be greatly boosted. After this round of zero price cuts for finished products is expected to be realized, the domestic refined oil market is expected to move forward with a heavy burden.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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