The analysis believes that today’s intraday diving will not affect the market’s mid-term upward trend, and will have little impact on the short-term structural market. my country’s still repairing is basically facing A shares to form effective support, but liquidity is tightening and profits are closed. It also causes a certain amount of pressure.
On the last trading day of October, the three major A-share stock indexes opened higher and lowered, and their losses expanded in the afternoon.
The analysis believes that today’s intraday diving will not affect the market’s mid-term upward trend, and will have little impact on the short-term structural market. my country’s still repairing is basically facing A shares to form effective support, but liquidity is tightening and profits are closed. It also puts some pressure on the market.
In October, there was support but the upward momentum was insufficient
After experiencing a good start, the A-share market generally continued to fluctuate and pull back in October. There was support but the upward momentum was insufficient, and the structural market was relatively obvious.
In the 16 trading days, the Shanghai Composite Index rose for 8 days, during which the overall increase was 0.2%, the highest point was 3371.09 points, and the lowest point was 3199.42 points; the Shenzhen Component Index also rose for 8 days, with an overall increase of 2.55 during the period. %, the highest point is 13820.56 points, and the lowest point is 12922.59 points; the growth rate of the ChiNext index is 3.15%, the highest point is 2793.49 points, and the lowest point is 2553.32 points.
From the perspective of industry sectors, the ups and downs of various industries are clearly differentiated. Automobiles soared by 11.58%, leading the industry sectors, followed by household appliances, electrical equipment, and bank food and beverage sectors.
Leisure services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, real estate, national defense and military industry, and computers saw the largest declines.
In terms of individual stocks, the market has over-expected the performance of Whitehorse stocks. Over the past year, the whitehorse stocks have experienced a large increase. After the disclosure of the three quarterly reports, the white horse stocks whose performance fell short of expectations continued to decline.
Zhongneng Electric (monthly increase of 195%), Youde Precision (monthly increase of 113%), Yinsai Group (monthly increase of 109%) are among the top gainers; the top three decliners are China potential shares (monthly decrease of 39%), Guocheng Mining (monthly decrease of 37%), Zhongxin Tourism (monthly decrease of 35%).
In terms of funds, since October, northbound funds have still been in a situation of selling more and buying less, but ended two consecutive months of net outflows.
This month's total net inflow was 23 million yuan, of which the Shanghai Stock Connect net outflow was 1.609 billion yuan, and the Shenzhen Stock Connect net inflow was 1.632 billion yuan.
The "four quarter effect" has been repeatedly fulfilled in the past 20 years
In November, as the US general election ends, the impact of overseas events will gradually weaken, and risk appetite is expected to be restored.
However, due to the continued spread of overseas epidemics, global market concerns have risen again. European and American stock markets have fallen significantly recently, and gold and crude oil prices have also seen significant corrections.
Founder Securities Research Report believes that the three major uncertainties overseas after the end of October, the U.S. election, overseas epidemics, and the hard Brexit of the United Kingdom will gradually come to light. The three quarterly reports of domestic listed companies have also been disclosed, and the performance window has entered. The Fourth Five-Year Plan will clarify the medium and long-term development route and leading industries, which will support risk appetite.
On the whole, before the economy peaks and liquidity is completely tightened, the market bull market pattern will not change. Currently, it is in a performance-driven period, and it is arranged on dips to meet the main rise.
China Galaxy Securities believes that the A-share market is in a situation of support but insufficient upward momentum, and structural opportunities are still worthy of attention.
my country is still repairing the basic face of effective support for A-shares. Investors are not pessimistic about the stock market, but factors such as tight liquidity, high valuations, and profit settlement have also caused certain pressures. It is recommended to pay attention to high investment performance and benefit For sectors where demand is picking up quickly.
In addition, the Haitong Securities Strategy Research Team stated that from a statistical perspective, the "four quarter effect" has been repeatedly fulfilled in the past 20 years.
From 2000 to 2019, the Shanghai Composite Index's annual average growth rates from May to October and November to April of the following year were -1.5% and 11.3%, respectively. The Wind Quan A Index from May to October and November to April 4 The monthly averages of monthly gains were -0.8% and 15% respectively. It can be seen that the stock market returns from November to April of the following year were significantly better than those from May to October.
From the statistics of a single month, historically, the market has a high winning rate after November.
Looking back at the monthly gains of the Shanghai Composite Index from 2000 to 2019, we can find that the winning rates of the Shanghai Composite Index from November to February were all higher than 50%, namely 60%, 55%, 55%, and 80%, and these four months From the perspective of the growth rate, positive returns were also obtained. The median growth rates over the years were 1.7%, 1.3%, 2.7%, and 3.2%.
From the perspective of the bull-bear cycle, even if the bull market turns into a bear market, it is difficult for the fourth quarter to fall sharply.
Since 1991, A shares have gone through five cycles of "bull market-bear market-shock market".
Since the start of a new round of bull market in A shares in January 2019, the market is currently in the bull market's upward phase in the sixth round of the bull-bear cycle.
In terms of allocation, Chuancai Securities stated that it mainly started from the perspective of "internal circulation" and the 14th Five-Year Plan. From the perspective of domestic demand, it explored fundamental improvement and industry recovery. In the fourth quarter, there were stocks with stable performance support for selection.
It is recommended to pay attention to: First, the infrastructure sector. Fixed asset investment continued to pick up in the third quarter, of which infrastructure is the main driving force. It is expected that the “new infrastructure” in November is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth; the second is industries with low valuations and stable demand. Such as steel and coal; the third is the military industry. The current international situation is becoming more and more complicated, and the overall valuation of the sector is expected to increase.