As the auditor of the Accounts Chamber Dmitry Zaitsev explained, the macro forecast was developed in two scenarios - neutral and risky, which differ in foreign economic conditions and expectations of the development of the situation with coronavirus in Russia and the world.
Based on the oil price and some other factors, in the neutral scenario, GDP in 2020 will contract by 4.2% and in the next three years its growth will not exceed 3%.
In the risk scenario, GDP contraction in 2020 will reach 4.8%, while economic growth will remain in the range of about 2% in 2021–2023.
According to the first scenario, the Russian economy will return to the level of the pre-crisis 2019 only in 2022, and according to the second - in 2023.
Earlier, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told how much the authorities will spend to support the Russian economy in 2020-2021.
He noted that Russia has moved from a budget surplus to a deficit one.
Now the authorities have to “find additional financial opportunities”.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, at a meeting with members of the board of the RUIE, said that the world economy may face new acute problems amid the coronavirus pandemic.
He stressed that the economic recovery processes are extremely unstable.