The Accounts Chamber of Russia for the first time presented its own version of the forecast for the development of the national economy in the period until 2023.

The document was published on Wednesday, October 28, on the official website of the department. 

The auditors predicted two possible scenarios - neutral and risky.

The first assumes that the economy suffered the main blow against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic in the second quarter of 2020, so new severe restrictions on the government will no longer be introduced.

In this case, the country's GDP, according to the calculations of specialists, by the end of this year will decrease by 4.2%.

In 2021, the economy will show growth of 2.2%, and in the next two years it will add another 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. 

In the implementation of the risk scenario, it is assumed that the second wave of coronavirus infection will lead to new serious restrictions in a number of countries, including Russia.

Under these conditions, the country's GDP in 2020 runs the risk of shrinking by 4.8%.

Further, according to experts' forecasts, if the mass vaccination of citizens is postponed until spring-summer 2021, then the growth rate of the economy by the end of next year will be 1.3%.

In 2022, the indicator will add 2.4%, and in 2023 - about 1.7%. 

According to the first scenario, the Russian economy will return to the level of the pre-crisis 2019 only in 2022, and according to the second - in 2023, according to the auditors' report. 

Analysts interviewed by RT call the neutral version of the development of the Russian economy more realistic.

The outlined revival of business and consumer activity in the third quarter speaks in his favor.

Thus, the economy was supported by the easing of quarantine restrictions, the recovery of oil prices, as well as measures of state assistance to business and the population.

In particular, we are talking about providing credit vacations, direct payments to families with children, soft loans and tax breaks for companies and entrepreneurs.

“Thanks to the steps taken, as well as measures to support the industries most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, it was possible to stop the economic decline and create conditions for its return to the growth trajectory.

In addition, various regulatory initiatives, such as deferral of inspections and a moratorium on bankruptcy, had a positive impact, "Mikhail Dorofeev, chairman of the board of KPK Obnovlenie, said in an interview with RT. 

As Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin noted earlier, Russia has managed to maintain macroeconomic stability.

According to the head of the Cabinet of Ministers, the state went through a difficult period "better than a number of countries."

This state of affairs is partly due to the peculiarities of the structure of the national economy, experts explain. 

“During the pandemic, small and medium-sized enterprises, which are part of the consumer sector, have been hit hardest.

In Russia, this segment accounts for about 20% of GDP, in contrast to other European countries, in which this indicator often exceeds 50% of GDP.

For this reason, the country has managed to avoid a more serious recession, comparable to 2009, when GDP fell by almost 9%.

However, in the conditions of the second wave of coronavirus, additional measures of state support can accelerate the economic recovery, "Natalya Milchakova, deputy head of the Alpari information and analytical center, said in a conversation with RT. 

Recall that on September 25, the Russian government approved a nationwide plan for economic recovery.

The document provides for about 500 events, and the cost of implementing the adopted program in two years will be about 5 trillion rubles.

The economic recovery process will take place in two stages and will end in 2024.

Energy stimulus

According to analysts of the Accounts Chamber, the dynamics of world energy prices will continue to influence the rate of GDP recovery.

According to the neutral scenario, the cost of Urals oil at the end of 2020 is expected at $ 42 per barrel, and in 2022-2023 may rise to $ 55 per barrel.

Under the risk scenario in 2021-2023, experts predict that the trend towards a gradual increase in oil prices will continue, but the level of $ 55 per barrel will be reached only in 2023.

“There is no doubt that effective COVID-19 vaccines will soon be widely adopted.

This means that new blows of the pandemic in 2021 will be avoided, the world economy will begin to recover, and with it the demand for oil will grow.

Relatively high prices for energy raw materials will lead to an increase in the revenues of the Russian budget, which will allow the authorities to initiate new measures to support the population and business, ”Anton Grinstein, an expert at the Hamilton information and analytical center, suggested in an interview with RT. 

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At the same time, the auditors expect the strengthening of the national currency.

According to their calculations, in the neutral scenario, by the end of 2020, the dollar exchange rate will be 69.2 rubles, and the next one may drop to 68.7 rubles.

In 2022-2023, the indicator will be fixed at 68.4 rubles.

The stabilization of the ruble will be possible due to the soft monetary policy of the Central Bank.

Aleksey Korenev, an analyst at the FINAM Group of Companies, shares this opinion.

According to him, a decrease in the key rate from the current 4.25% to 4% may provide an additional incentive for investment inflows. 

“This state of affairs will somewhat accelerate consumer demand and support the banking sector. In addition, the pandemic and the forced transfer of some employees to a remote mode of work showed that Russia has much to strive for in terms of labor productivity. The growth of this indicator can also become one of the drivers of the accelerated recovery of the country's main macroeconomic indicators, ”the expert concluded.