The inflection point of the price rise of melons and fruits is relatively stable in the later stage
Our reporter Huang Junyi
"At present, the prices of melons and fruits are basically at the average level over the same period in history. As the weather turns cooler than in previous years, the inflection point of seasonal price increases comes slightly earlier." Researcher Zhao Junye from the Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences said in an interview.
As of October 16, the average monthly wholesale price of the six bulk melons and fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (Fuji apple, pear, Kyoho grape, watermelon, banana, and pineapple) was 5.43 yuan per kilogram, up 3.04% month-on-month and up year-on-year 4.96%, while the monthly average price of melons and fruits from January to September grew negative year-on-year.
After the National Day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the national melon and fruit prices have risen significantly. Zhao Junye believes that there are two main reasons: First, the price fluctuations of melons and fruits have seasonal laws.
After autumn, a variety of summer seasonal fruits will be withdrawn from the market. Apples, pears, grapes, and early-ripening citrus fruits will be listed in the autumn. Variety diversity is reduced compared with summer; some apples and pears will be stored in the cold storage for the anniversary Supply, sales pressure will decrease in the short term.
Therefore, the prices of melons and fruits have entered a seasonal upward channel.
Nevertheless, the current prices of melons and fruits are basically at the average level over the same period in history, and the fluctuations are in line with seasonal laws.
As the weather turned cold earlier than in previous years, the inflection point of price increases was slightly earlier.
Second, the recovery of market sentiment pushed up prices of melons and fruits.
Due to the better control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, domestic consumption, tourism, and catering have significantly recovered during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, which has promoted the consumption of melons and fruits and drove up the price of melons and fruits to a certain extent.
As the only domestic fresh fruit futures variety, the main apple futures contract has a daily limit on the first trading day after the National Day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. The main reason is that the results of the previous market research showed that apples were generally productive, which led to the low price of apple futures. During the National Day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday With the launch of late-ripening Fuji apples in Shaanxi and Gansu production areas and the unbagging and coloring of apples in Shandong production areas, the rate of apple quality is lower than expected, reflecting the rapid price increase in the futures market.
In terms of spot, as of mid-October, as the new season Fuji apples were harvested, listed and put into storage throughout the country, market sentiment was relatively stable, and the price remained stable at the historical average level.
In addition, the prices of Yap pears among the bulk of melons and fruits have risen significantly, mainly due to the loss of production in the main producing areas. The market expects higher prices of pears and higher prices for purchases and storage.
Compared with historical data, the prices of watermelon, Kyoho grapes, bananas and pineapples are relatively stable, and the price trends are generally in line with seasonal fluctuations.
What is the outlook for the national melon and fruit market?
Dr. Hou Yulu from the Institute of Agricultural Information of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences said: "It is expected that the supply and demand of the melon and fruit market will be relatively stable in the later period, and the price may continue to rise seasonally. The possibility of large fluctuations is unlikely."
Hou Yulu analyzed that from the perspective of supply, after the weather turned cooler, the proportion of watermelon and grapes in the fruit market continued to shrink, and the impact on the overall price of melons and fruit further declined.
In the fourth quarter, apples, pears, citrus, etc. occupy the mainstream of the fruit and melon market. Due to the relatively high yield of apples in the new season, the possibility of sharp price fluctuations is unlikely to stabilize the overall price of melons and fruits.
From the demand side, with the normalization of the prevention and control of the domestic new crown pneumonia epidemic and the economic recovery, the enthusiasm for fruit consumption has gradually recovered from the first half of the year, which will support the seasonal increase in the price of fruit in the later period.
Huang Junyi