The government announced on Thursday evening new health measures including the extension of the curfew to more than 40 million French people.

While some economic indicators showed the beginning of renewed energy in the business community, these new announcements worry business leaders.

Will the extension of the curfew stifle the economy?

Since the start of the school year, the confidence of business leaders has turned around.

INSEE notes this through the business climate, which fell by 2 points in October when it had started to recover in September.

The evolution of the health situation gives rhythm to economic activity.

A few weeks ago, we could still hope to escape a second wave.

Today, it is present everywhere in Europe, with countries which are reconfiguring such as Ireland and perhaps tomorrow Belgium, and an epidemic which spares virtually no region, which was not the case during the first wave.

The extension of the curfew announced Thursday by the government will further weigh on activity.

We are also expecting a drop of around 1% in activity in the last quarter of this year, whereas we previously expected a simple stagnation.

Some sectors are doing well

The building and public works sector, for example, are more or less doing well thanks in particular to the stimulus measures that are being put in place.

Life is of course much more complicated in hotels, restaurants or transport.

Consider, for example, that at the time of writing, no SNCF TGV line is profitable when it was the group's cash cow.

Why ?

Because business customers no longer travel, or very little.

She does not fly either, but it is these high-end customers who ensure the margins of the companies.

Two figures to locate the extent of the damage: in normal times, there are approximately 250,000 planes which fly in the whole world in a period of 24 hours.

With the virus, we fell to 5,000!

There are therefore sectors which are very deeply affected.

When will the rebound be?

In France, activity is expected to rebound by 7 to 8% next year.

We will not make up for this year's losses for probably two years, but yes, we can count on a rebound scenario.

The recovery plan will also produce its full effects next year to support this recovery.

We also learned from the first wave and the measures we are taking in France and among our neighbors by targeting cities or regions prove it: we are more capable of targeting a particular region to fight against the epidemic, this which limits the consequences for the economy compared to national measures.

Another reason for hope, research on vaccines is advancing.

We have to look beyond this second wave that is hitting us right now.

Even if, as we know, it will cause considerable economic damage.