(Economic Observer) Interview with Wei Jianguo, Former Vice Minister of the Ministry of Commerce: The epidemic highlights China's economic advantages
China News Service, Beijing, October 23rd. Title: Interview with Wei Jianguo, Former Vice Minister of the Ministry of Commerce: The epidemic highlights China’s economic advantages
China News Agency reporter Li Xiaoyu
The global economy has not yet emerged from the shock wave of the epidemic, but China's consumption, exports, and foreign investment data in the third quarter are quite eye-catching.
Why can China achieve a "counterattack"?
What does this mean for the global economic and trade landscape?
In the context of the rebound of the epidemic in many countries, how long can China's "outstanding" continue?
Wei Jianguo, former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, recently said in an exclusive interview with a reporter from China News Agency that the epidemic has highlighted China's competitive advantage in the industrial supply chain.
China's exports will continue to grow at a high rate this year, and the scale of foreign investment is expected to rank first in the world.
Data map: The new tax exemption policy for Hainan's outlying islands has a significant effect, stimulating the accelerated recovery of the consumer market.
Photo by Wang Ziqian
Consumption growth climax is "on the road"
In the third quarter, the growth rate of China's total retail sales of consumer goods turned positive for the first time this year, but it is still not a small distance from before the epidemic, and it is also behind the recovery of exports and investment.
Is Chinese consumption hot or cold?
In Wei Jianguo's view, it is unnecessary to worry that China's consumption recovery is not as expected. The reasons are as follows:
First, some restrictive measures in the past will be further liberalized.
For example, the attendance rate of movie theaters has been raised from no more than 50% to no more than 75%, and inter-provincial tourism has also been opened, which soon promoted a significant increase in box office and tourism revenue.
It is expected that consumption will pick up faster in the future as restrictions are relaxed in more areas.
Second, the fourth quarter is the peak season for traditional Chinese consumption.
Now all regions are brewing more intensive measures to promote consumption. I hope that a sprint will happen at the end of the year, which will also help set off a new upsurge in consumption growth.
Third, China has proposed to build a new development pattern in which domestic and international cycles are the mainstay and the domestic and international dual cycles promote each other. This means that the status of consumption in China's economic structure will only increase, not decline. The momentum of a momentum will run through the 14th Five-Year Plan.
In addition, China is accelerating its reform and opening up, which will also help release consumption potential.
He said that last year's total consumption in China was about 6.3 trillion US dollars and the US was 6.9 trillion US dollars.
So far, the consumption scale of China and the United States has been relatively close, and it is expected that China's consumption scale is likely to become the world's largest this year.
The rebound of the epidemic will not drag down China's exports
In recent months, China's export growth rate has even been higher than before the outbreak.
However, as the epidemic in many countries rebounds, whether this high growth trend can continue has attracted much attention.
Wei Jianguo said that the fundamental reason for China's excellent export performance is that China was the first to control the epidemic, resume work and production, and lead the world in economic recovery.
When companies in other countries cannot start operations, China can still produce goods in quality and quantity with a complete industrial chain and supply chain, and can deliver goods on time. High export growth is inevitable.
"The epidemic has rebounded, and more export orders may go to China because China is reliable."
He predicts that China's foreign trade will achieve even higher growth this year based on the advantages of the industrial supply chain and the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce.
The strong increase in exports will enhance China's influence in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) and WTO, and will also help accelerate the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Area negotiations.
"For international trade, now is an era of'fast fish eat slow fish'", Wei Jianguo said. Whoever can control the epidemic as soon as possible and restart the economy as soon as possible on this basis will win the first place in international trade. Machine, take the initiative.
China's absorption of foreign capital this year may rank first in the world
In addition to exports, China's absorption of foreign capital is also better than expected.
According to official data, China's foreign investment in the third quarter increased by 20.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate in September was as high as 25.1%.
Wei Jianguo believes that the high growth of foreign investment is not a short-term phenomenon, but a long-term trend.
China's economic growth rate has taken the lead in the world from negative to positive, which has fundamentally stabilized the confidence of foreign companies in investing in China.
Many investors have regarded China as a "safe haven," and some companies that originally adjusted their industrial layout have begun to return investment to China.
In addition, the foreign investment law has come into effect, the pilot free trade zone has been continuously expanded, and the negative list of market access has become increasingly streamlined, which has further enhanced China's attractiveness to investors.
He said that China's absorption of foreign capital will continue to grow in the next few months, and this year may rank first in the world.
In Wei Jianguo's view, the epidemic is a stress test and a good opportunity to highlight China's comprehensive competitive advantages.
After the epidemic, China's advantages in the industrial chain and supply chain have not been lost, but have been further strengthened; China's share in the international market has not declined, but has increased significantly.
The strength and influence of China's economy have been amplified during the epidemic, which will have a profound impact on the future evolution of the world economic structure.
(Finish)