Unedic expects 420,000 job seekers to be compensated more at the end of 2020 compared to the end of 2019

Unédic, which manages the unemployment insurance scheme, provides for the compensation of 420,000 additional job seekers at the end of 2020 compared to the end of 2019, due to the destruction of 670,000 salaried jobs, she said on Wednesday. in a press release.

Due to "a fairly strong rebound in the economy and employment in the third quarter", its forecasts are a little less pessimistic than in June when Unédic expected 900,000 salaried jobs destroyed.

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A deficit of "unprecedented magnitude" of 18.7 billion euros in 2020

But, "in connection with the forecast for a decline in activity (..) salaried employment would decline again in the 4th quarter," she notes.

Next year, "the number of compensated job seekers would decrease by 270,000 thanks to new job creations", which would bring their number to around 2.9 million people by the end of 2021. Due to both the increase spending on allowances and lower revenue, Unédic would record a deficit of "unprecedented magnitude" of 18.7 billion euros in 2020, then 9.7 billion at the end of 2021.

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"Four times more affected by a crisis"

To measure the extent of the shock to its finances, the unemployment insurance scheme forecast in February, before confinement due to the health crisis linked to the Covid-19 epidemic, a deficit of 0.9 billion this year and even a surplus in 2021. The deficit would bring the debt to 55.5 billion at the end of 2020 (against 38.4 billion expected in February), then to 65.2 billion at the end of 2021. This increase in debt would be linked for 57% to the partial activity, of which Unédic finances a third, for 28% to the increase in expenditure on unemployment benefits and for 15% to the postponement of contributions and other lower resources linked to the decline in employment.

Unemployment insurance is indeed "four times more affected by a crisis" than other social protection schemes, "which are only affected on the revenue side", recalls Unédic.

Consequently, to secure the funding of the scheme, Unédic carried out four issues of "medium-term social bonds" (in May, June, July and October) which made it possible to raise 13 billion euros on the markets. .

The longer-term financing of the unemployment insurance scheme, as well as its governance, should be discussed from the end of the year between the social partners and the government.