The economy and people’s livelihood continues to improve, and the market is expected to improve steadily-economic figures analyze the main economic data in the third quarter
In the first three quarters of this year, my country’s economic situation has steadily improved, the order of production and life has gradually improved, economic growth has turned from negative to positive, and employment, exports, and new consumption have performed well.
However, it should also be noted that the current global epidemic is still spreading, and the international development environment still has many unstable and uncertain factors; the employment situation has improved significantly, but employment pressure is still relatively large; the consumer market has accelerated recovery, but demand is still weak... …This requires further strengthening of policy support for key areas and weak links in order to better fulfill the goals and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year.
Wen Bin, Chief Researcher of China Minsheng Bank:
my country's economy has the foundation for sustained recovery
On October 19, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the main economic data for the first three quarters of 2020.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that in the first three quarters, in the face of the unprecedented impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the complex and changeable domestic and foreign environment, my country has coordinated the promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and solidly performed the "six stability". Work, fully implement the "six guarantees" task, accelerate the restoration of production and living order, and achieve positive results in economic recovery.
In the third quarter, my country's GDP grew by 4.9% year-on-year, and the cumulative increase in the first three quarters was 0.7%. The main characteristics can be roughly summarized as follows:
One is the acceleration of GDP growth.
In the third quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of my country's GDP rose by 1.7 percentage points from the second quarter to 4.9%. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate rose by 2.3 percentage points from the 1.6% decline in the first half of the year, reaching an increase of 0.7%, reversing the decline since the outbreak of the epidemic.
The second is the optimization of GDP structure.
Final consumption expenditure’s contribution to GDP increased from a negative 2.3 percentage points in the second quarter to a positive 1.7 percentage point; gross capital formation’s contribution to GDP fell from a positive 5 percentage point to 2.6 percentage points; net exports of goods and services were positively driven 0.5 percentage point rebounded to 0.6 percentage point.
It can be seen that the accelerated recovery of consumption has promoted the role of the economy as a "ballast stone", and it is not easy for net exports to increase steadily and slightly.
The third is the increasing number of positive factors.
The recovery of major economic indicators has accelerated, and more and more indicators have turned positive.
On the production side, the cumulative growth rate of industrial added value turned positive; on the demand side, the cumulative growth rate of investment and total import and export of goods turned positive.
Production demand has gradually picked up, and the confidence of market entities has continued to increase, which has promoted continuous improvement in employment and people's livelihood.
Wen Bin believes that from the current domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, economic recovery performance, market vitality and confidence, my country's economy has the conditions and foundation for continued recovery in the next stage, and GDP is expected to grow by about 2% throughout the year.
However, we must also be aware that the current global epidemic is still spreading, and the international development environment still has many unstable and uncertain factors. We need to be prepared to meet challenges at any time, consolidate the foundation for continuous recovery and improve, and further increase the focus on key areas. We will work hard to accomplish the goals and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year.
Wen Bin suggested that in terms of fiscal policy, we should continue to implement policies such as tax reduction and fee reduction to reduce the burden on enterprises.
Further speed up the use of local government special debt funds.
In terms of monetary policy, it is necessary to continue to play the role of structural policies, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity through a variety of policy combinations, increase medium and long-term credit support for manufacturing, small and medium-sized enterprises, and promote a further decline in actual loan interest rates to ensure completion of the entire year. The target mission of 1.5 trillion yuan in profit.
(Economic Daily-China Economic Net reporter Peng Jiang)
Chen Li, Chief Economist of Chuancai Securities:
New infrastructure drives investment recovery
The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in the first three quarters of this year, new infrastructure such as 5G construction and rail transit performed well.
Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities, said that the current domestic new crown pneumonia epidemic is gradually stable, but the international epidemic situation is still severe.
Under the influence of the epidemic, economic growth is seriously lacking in demand momentum, and new infrastructure investment is expected to further stimulate the production side, lead the economy out of difficulties, and achieve new growth.
In September, the year-on-year growth rate of the computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries achieved rapid growth, and the high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries grew rapidly. The supporting role of infrastructure to domestic demand drove the continuous recovery of industrial product demand.
Under the impact of the epidemic, the driving force for industrial transformation and development has accelerated significantly. New momentum represented by the Internet economy has grown against the trend, and has played a very active role in helping epidemic prevention and control, protecting residents' lives, and promoting economic growth.
Chen Li said that in the short term, my country's fixed asset investment continued to pick up in the third quarter, and the rapid development of new infrastructure cannot be ignored.
On the one hand, the local special bonds have been relatively large in scale and issued quickly this year.
The acceleration of local special bond issuance will drive infrastructure investment, and new infrastructure investment accounts for an increasing proportion of infrastructure investment.
On the other hand, new types of infrastructure can also play a pulling role on traditional infrastructure.
At present, all parts of the country are intensively formulating new infrastructure investment plans, but they cannot do without the support of traditional infrastructure.
In the long run, the development of new infrastructure is also in line with the national strategic development plan.
Under the influence of the epidemic this year, along with counter-cyclical adjustment policies, new infrastructure has also entered a stage of rapid development.
In April of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission clarified the scope of implementation of new infrastructure at a press conference.
New types of infrastructure such as photovoltaics, energy storage, power grids, and third-generation semiconductors are expected to be included in the "14th Five-Year Plan". By then, policy support will provide a guarantee for the development of new infrastructure.
The new type of infrastructure is the infrastructure support for the new economy, new technology, and new industry in the future, and guides the development direction of my country's science and technology industry.
For the new type of infrastructure, we should not only focus on the short-term economic stimulus from the scale of short-term investment, but also focus on the long-term layout.
The current new type of infrastructure is mainly divided into three categories: one is the communication network infrastructure represented by 5G, Internet of Things, industrial Internet, etc.; the second is new technology infrastructure represented by artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and blockchain; It is a computing power infrastructure represented by data centers and intelligent computing centers.
From the field of science and technology to the field of people's livelihood, new infrastructure is closely related to everyone's life. The development of new infrastructure is expected to promote the transformation and upgrading of Chinese society in the direction of digitalization, informatization and intelligence.
(Economic Daily-China Economic Net reporter Wen Jicong)
Liu Feng, Chief Economist of China Galaxy Securities:
The employment situation improves but the pressure still exists
In the first three quarters of this year, 8.98 million new jobs were created in cities and towns. In September, the nationwide surveyed unemployment rate in cities and towns fell from a high of 6.2% at the beginning of the year to 5.4%.
"The employment situation has improved significantly, and the employment of key groups has improved." Liu Feng, chief economist of China Galaxy Securities, said in an interview with reporters. In the third quarter, my country's economy has continued to recover and various economic indicators have improved significantly, laying an important foundation for employment stability. .
Since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, in the face of unprecedented employment pressure, the first item of the "six stability" requirements put forward by the central government is "stabilizing employment."
All regions and departments fully implemented the employment priority policy, and continued to increase investment in people's livelihood, resulting in a marked improvement in the employment situation.
Liu Feng believes that although the employment situation has improved significantly, employment pressure is still relatively high.
The employment issue, which reflects the relationship between supply and demand in the labor market, still needs to be focused on and should not be underestimated.
First, the recovery of employment in labor-intensive industries has been slow.
The epidemic has severely impacted some industries, especially the tertiary industry.
At the end of the third quarter, there were 179 million rural migrant workers, an increase of 2 million from the end of the second quarter, but the total at the end of the third quarter was 3.84 million fewer than the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%.
Although the unemployment rate in the national urban survey in September fell by 0.2 percentage points from August, it only represents the average level.
Due to the different characteristics of various industries, especially labor-intensive industries such as catering, tourism, transportation, etc., employment recovery is still slow.
Second, the employment pressure of graduates still needs to be eased.
In September, although the surveyed unemployment rate for persons aged 20 to 24 with college degree and above dropped by 2.4 points from the previous month, it was up by 4 percentage points from the same period last year.
In September, the employment pressure of domestic college graduates was still great.
Affected by the epidemic, many companies have suspended recruitment, and overseas graduates are also facing severe employment conditions.
Third, affected by various factors such as the epidemic, small and medium-sized enterprises are facing the greatest impact and cannot solve the expected labor employment problem in the future.
Therefore, it is necessary to continue to relieve employment pressure through measures such as helping enterprises to relieve difficulties and encouraging flexible employment.
Fourth, the current focus of stabilizing employment is to work hard to eliminate the impact and impact of the epidemic, work hard to restore employment, and provide relief and resettlement for the unemployed.
Liu Feng said that many new industries and formats have begun to emerge in our country, which requires a large number of new knowledge-based labor force, and must increase the scale and intensity of vocational education and training for in-service personnel.
At the same time, colleges and universities and other full-time secondary and technical colleges must keep pace with the times, constantly adjust and improve teaching content and methods, and provide society with more and better human resources.
(Economic Daily-China Economic Net reporter Zhu Huichun)
Ma Tao, Chief Strategy Analyst of Bank of Communications Schroder Fund:
Manufacturing is performing better than expected
In the third quarter, my country's GDP growth rate rebounded to 4.9%, compared with the 3.2% level in the second quarter, and continued to repair. The cumulative growth rate in the first three quarters has turned positive.
Among them, the single-quarter growth rate of the primary and secondary industries has been restored to the level before the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and the tertiary industry is still under pressure.
In an interview with reporters, Ma Tao, chief strategist of the Bank of Communications Schroder Fund, said that one of the highlights of the economic data in the first three quarters was that the resilience of imports and exports drove the manufacturing industry to perform better than expected.
In the first three quarters, my country's total imports and exports of goods increased by 0.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate during the year has turned from negative to positive. In September, total imports and exports increased by 10.0%, exports by 8.7%, and imports by 11.6%.
Foreign trade imports and exports are picking up quarter by season, exports of mechanical and electrical products and anti-epidemic materials have maintained rapid growth, and imports of major commodities and key agricultural products have maintained rapid growth, showing the characteristics of both imports and exports.
Net exports of goods and services drove my country's GDP growth by 0.6% in the third quarter, reaching a historically high level.
The import and export boom drove the increase in industrial added value in September to 6.9%, the highest level since 2018. The added value of high-tech industries increased by 7.8% year-on-year, electrical machinery and equipment increased by 15.9% year-on-year, and the manufacturing of electronic equipment and general equipment increased year-on-year. 8% and 12.5%; in the third quarter, the industrial capacity utilization rate rebounded to 76.7%, and the manufacturing capacity utilization rate reached 77.2%, returning to a historically high level; manufacturing investment continued to recover, high-tech industry investment, enterprise automation transformation, and equipment investment The prosperity is relatively high. The cumulative growth rate of the industrial added value of general equipment and special equipment reached 2.6% and 5.1% respectively, and the cumulative increase of industrial robot output was 18.2%.
In the first three quarters, my country’s trade surplus reached 2305.4 billion yuan. The accumulation of trade surplus and the reduction of service deficit brought significant accumulation of current account surplus, which promoted the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and increased the scale of foreign exchange assets in the commercial banking system.
As my country is the first to control the epidemic, complete industrial sectors and industrial chains, and the world's leading progress in resuming work and production, under the global epidemic, imports and exports have bucked the trend and the global share of trade has continued to increase, supporting the recovery of the real economy.
Ma Tao predicts that the economic data in the fourth quarter is expected to remain stable and improve, and China is expected to become the only economy in the world that has achieved positive growth due to the impact of the epidemic.
In the fourth quarter, imports and exports remained an important driving force for the economy, driving industrial production, related employment, and manufacturing investment to maintain repair. The solid fundamentals are to continue to maintain a normalized and stable monetary policy, accelerate the conversion of old and new kinetic energy, and resolve financial risks. Created good conditions.
(Economic Daily-China Economic Net reporter Zhou Lin)
Hua Changchun, Global Chief Economist of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute:
New consumption stimulates economic growth momentum
In the first three quarters of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 2,73324 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 4.2 percentage points from the first half of the year. Among them, the third quarter increased by 0.9%, and the quarterly growth rate turned positive for the first time this year.
In the view of Hua Changchun, global chief economist at Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute, residents' income and consumption willingness have contributed to a boost in consumer demand.
With the major strategic results achieved in the prevention and control of the epidemic, the income and consumption willingness of Chinese residents have continued to rise, becoming the main driving force for economic recovery in the third quarter.
In September, consumption of food and beverages, textiles and clothing, and new-type consumption rose sharply.
It should be pointed out that the main short-term factors, such as oil and products, and some communication equipment, which dragged down social retail sales in September, were affected by prices while the latter were affected by product upgrades.
Therefore, if these short-term factors are excluded, the recovery of consumption momentum will be more significant.
It is worth noting that new business formats, new models, and new products have driven rapid growth in new consumption.
Hua Changchun said that new consumption mainly refers to the combination of new business formats and new products, so sub-sectors such as catering, transportation, education, consumer electronics, leisure and entertainment can also involve new consumption content.
If you look at the proportion of retail sales of online physical and non-physical objects to the total retail sales, new consumption accounts for approximately 25%.
From the perspective of new consumption patterns, e-commerce has shown a trend of growth against the trend.
In the first three quarters, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 15.3% year-on-year, accounting for 24.3% of the total retail sales of consumer goods.
In the process of epidemic prevention and control, online consumption has played an important role in protecting people's livelihood and even driving economic growth.
As people's consumption habits change, the penetration rate of e-commerce consumption is increasing, and the new consumption model still has a strong growth trend in the medium and long term.
The new kinetic energy represented by the Internet economy has grown against the trend. While helping to prevent and control the epidemic, protect the lives of residents, and promote economic growth, it also shows that the driving force for my country's industrial transformation and development has accelerated significantly.
New formats and models of online shopping and live delivery of goods continue to be hot, and emerging demands such as online office, remote consultation, and online education are very strong.
All these have promoted the increase of the proportion of physical goods online retail in the entire social retail.
In addition, the output of smart watches in September increased by more than 70%, and the output of new energy vehicles increased by more than 50%, indicating that the demand for new products is very strong.
Hua Changchun believes that after the epidemic prevention and control enters the stage of normalization, new consumption and new kinetic energy will lay the foundation for China's economic transformation and development.
New economies such as new consumption can help promote economic growth in the short-term, but their greater significance lies in the improvement of total factor productivity and long-term economic growth momentum.
The new economy has long-term significance for reducing costs, reducing energy consumption, and creating new wealth.
(Economic Daily-China Economic Net reporter Wen Jicong)
Tang Jianwei, Chief Researcher of the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications:
Trends in low prices are differentiated
Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics has successively released major economic data for the first three quarters.
Tang Jianwei, the chief researcher of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, said that the data in the third quarter showed that the current price trend showed differentiation, with CPI falling and PPI rising.
Tang Jianwei pointed out that in the first three quarters, CPI experienced a rapid decline after rising from the previous year.
The 5.4% increase in January became the highest point of the year. Since then, the year-on-year increase in CPI has declined month by month. Although there was a slight rebound in the middle of the year, the increase continued to fall. In September, the CPI rose by 1.7% year-on-year.
The significant reduction in food price increases was the main reason for the fall in CPI.
The year-on-year increase in food prices fell from the highest 21.9% in February to 7.9% in September, a 14% drop.
The year-on-year contribution of food prices to CPI fell from 4.84% in February to 2% in September, a drop of 2.84 percentage points.
The sharp drop in pork price increases is the main reason for the narrowing of food price increases.
With the steady recovery of live pig inventory and the relatively high base of pork prices in the second half of last year, the year-on-year increase in pork prices this year has fallen sharply from the peak of 135.2% in February to 25.5% in September.
The year-on-year pull of pork prices on CPI also dropped from 3.19% at its peak in February to 1% in September.
Tang Jianwei said that non-food prices and core CPI continue to remain low, indicating that consumer demand is still weak.
Excluding food prices, the price level continued to remain low. The year-on-year increase in non-food prices fell from 1.6% in January to 0% in September, which has been below 0.5% for six consecutive months.
The core CPI has remained at 0.5% for three consecutive months, indicating that consumer demand is still weak.
Tang Jianwei predicts that the CPI in the fourth quarter may remain in the "1 range" year-on-year.
First, pork prices are likely to enter a downward cycle; second, tail-lifting factors will decline significantly, with an average of 3.34% in the first half of the year, and 1.14% in the second half of the year, and only 0.13% in the fourth quarter.
Third, the core CPI has been operating at a low level, and insufficient demand will still curb price increases.
Tang Jianwei pointed out that since the beginning of this year, PPI has experienced a continuous decline in the first half of the year and began to slowly rise in the second half of the year. It is expected that the PPI will continue to rebound in the fourth quarter.
The reasons are: First, after the international epidemic improves, international oil prices and other commodity prices may rebound; second, the acceleration of domestic infrastructure to support PPI.
It is expected that the PPI will continue to rebound in the fourth quarter, but the probability of a positive year-on-year increase during the year is unlikely.
Tang Jianwei believes that overall, there was no obvious inflationary pressure during the year.
Although the fall in food prices has led to a decline in the CPI, as demand is gradually recovering, it is unlikely that the CPI will further fall to a negative value, and there is no obvious deflationary situation.
Prices will not become the main focus of macro policy during the year.
(Economic Daily-China Economic Net reporter Peng Jiang)