Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, October 22 (Dai Congfei) At 24:00 on the 22nd, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will be opened.
A number of agencies said that it is expected that domestic oil prices will rise in this price adjustment cycle.
Oil prices may increase for the fourth time this year
Recently, international oil prices have risen slightly.
Jin Lianchuang said that the current global new crown epidemic is spreading, and the market is still worried about global oil demand. With good news and factors restricting each other, the rise of international oil prices is weak.
In this cycle, the overall price fluctuations showed a downward trend, and the rate of change of crude oil recovered slightly, but it still met the conditions for adjusting the retail price of domestic refined oil.
New longitude and latitude in the data map
Zhuo Chuang Information pointed out that although demand is still a concern for the market, good news such as the strengthening of the US dollar and the forecast decline in US crude oil inventories have driven the market, and the overall international crude oil has shown a volatile upward trend.
Driven by this, the rate of change continues to rise within the positive range.
According to the principle of "one adjustment for ten working days".
Zhuo Chuang Information analysis believes that it has been the ninth working day, as the estimated range has far exceeded the adjustment red line of 50 yuan/ton, so this round of refined oil retail prices will face an upward adjustment.
Longzhong Information pointed out that the rate of change during the current price adjustment cycle basically showed positive fluctuations. It is expected that the domestic refined oil price adjustment on October 22 will correspond to a theoretical increase of about 100 yuan/ton.
Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client has noticed that since this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 19 adjustments, of which 12 have been stranded, 4 have been lowered, and 3 have been raised. Gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by RMB 1,860/ton and RMB 1,790/ton respectively. .
Among them, six times failed to adjust due to triggering the "floor price" protection mechanism.
If this round of increase is expected to be fulfilled, then domestic oil prices will be raised for the fourth time this year.
It is expected that the probability of the next round of price adjustments being stranded is greater
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the non-OPEC ministerial joint supervisory committee held a regular meeting on the 19th.
Analysts believe that the recent worsening of the new crown epidemic in many countries has caused the international crude oil market demand to weaken again. At the same time, Libyan crude oil production is rapidly recovering, leading to an increase in market supply.
In this context, major oil-producing countries may adjust production reduction policies to stabilize oil prices.
Liu Ting, an analyst at Longzhong Information, pointed out that in the winter, gasoline and diesel demand has entered a slow down stage, demand boost is weak, but gasoline and diesel prices still have strong support.
From the perspective of exports, the progress of refined oil exports in the first half of the year was relatively slow, and the pace of exports may be accelerated in the fourth quarter, which can relieve the pressure of excess domestic gasoline and diesel supply to a certain extent.
The next round of price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on November 5th. Li Yan, an analyst at Longzhong Information, believes that the recent international crude oil market has been affected by the intensified overseas epidemic, and the upward force is weak. .
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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