(Economic Observation) The growth rate in the first three quarters has turned from negative to positive, and China's economy is "outstanding"

　　China News Service, Beijing, October 19 (Reporter Wang Enbo) The International Monetary Fund has recently predicted that China will be the only major economy in the world to achieve positive growth this year. This judgment is confirmed in China's third-quarter economic data released in 1919.

　　The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced that China's GDP grew by 0.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year, and the cumulative growth rate has turned from negative to positive.

In quarterly terms, the first quarter fell 6.8% year-on-year, the second quarter increased 3.2%, and the third quarter increased 4.9%.

　　As the overall plan for epidemic prevention and development has achieved remarkable results, China's economy has shown a steady recovery since the second quarter, and has continued to "recover lost ground."

　　A series of leading indicators that have been disclosed before have been "spoiled".

For example, the PMI of China's manufacturing industry was 51.5% in September, which has been above the Kurong line for seven consecutive months.

As a "barometer" of economic operations, electricity data has gradually returned to normal levels.

From January to August, China's cumulative power generation growth rate and the total social cumulative power consumption growth rate both realized the first time that they turned from negative to positive.

　　Among the most recently announced major economic indicators for the third quarter, "regularity" continues to be the key word.

In particular, the two major domestic demand engines of investment and consumption have maintained a positive trend. Among them, the once lagging consumption repair is trying to catch up.

　　On the investment side, in the first three quarters, China's fixed asset investment increased by 0.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate changed from negative to positive for the first time during the year.

On the consumer side, in the third quarter, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year-on-year, and the quarterly growth rate turned positive for the first time this year.

　　Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, said that the above data shows that although the negative impact of the overseas epidemic on the global economy is developing in a long-term and structured manner, the total amount of China's economic recovery process is stable and progressing, and the structure is gradually improving. , The endogenous toughness is further highlighted.

　　The temperature of economic recovery is also fully reflected in people's livelihood indicators.

In particular, employment, which had faced greater pressure before, kept the overall stable situation.

　　Statistics show that in the first three quarters, 8.98 million people were newly employed in cities and towns across the country, completing 99.8% of the annual target.

The surveyed unemployment rate also showed a steady decline. The national urban surveyed unemployment rate in September was 5.4%, which continued to fall from the high of 6.2% at the beginning of the year.

Stable employment also guarantees the income of residents. In the first three quarters, the national per capita disposable income of residents increased by 0.6% in real terms, which was the first time this year to become positive.

　　If it is said that under the epidemic situation, protecting basic people’s livelihood is the bottom line that must be maintained for economic growth, then how high the “ceiling” at this time is to a large extent depends on whether new momentum can come forward and fill some of the traditional impetus limited by the epidemic. Vacancy.

　　In this regard, according to Liu Aihua, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, under the impact of the epidemic, China's industrial transformation and development momentum has accelerated significantly, and new momentum represented by the Internet economy has grown against the trend.

For example, in the first three quarters, the value added of China's high-tech manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 5.9%, and the value added of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 4.7%, both faster than in the first half of the year.

At the same time, the driving effect of new infrastructure such as 5G construction and rail transit, and new consumption is also increasing.

　　Faced with the huge impact of the epidemic and the complex and severe domestic and foreign environment, China's economy has steadily recovered and is "outstanding" in the world.

However, in the short remaining time of this year, there are still more uncertainties and instability. Is this momentum sustainable?

　　Cheng Shi believes that looking forward to the fourth quarter, three major trends are expected to dominate the follow-up recovery process of China's economy: First, thanks to improved employment and the restart of consumption scenarios, the rebound in consumption is expected to increase marginally; second, as financial support shifts from short-term to medium- and long-term Extension, the activity of real economy enterprises will be further enhanced; third, policy efforts are expected to remain generally stable.

Based on this, China's economic cycle is expected to move from "repair" to "recovery" within the year, and will basically return to normal before the epidemic at the end of the fourth quarter.

　　Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, suggested that the next stage should continue to maintain the stability and continuity of macro-control policies, consolidate the foundation for sustained recovery, and further increase policy support for key areas and weak links.

　　Specifically, fiscal policy should continue to implement policies such as tax cuts and fee reductions to reduce the burden on enterprises. With the completion of the issuance of local government special bonds, it is necessary to further accelerate the use of funds; monetary policy should continue to play the role of structural policy and adopt various policies The portfolio maintains reasonable and sufficient liquidity, increases support for manufacturing, small, medium and micro enterprises, and promotes a further decline in real loan interest rates.

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