China Daily, October 18th. Recently, US media published articles that the epidemic will promote China's GDP growth far beyond that of the United States.
Bloomberg reported on the 16th that the new crown epidemic will have a lasting impact on global economic growth, and China will further lead the global economic growth.
Bloomberg uses data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to calculate that China’s share of global economic growth is expected to rise from 26.8% in 2021 to 27.7% in 2025, which is higher than the US’s expected global output. The share is 15 and 17 percentage points higher.
IMF Research Director Gita Gopinat wrote in the report: “Although the global economy is recovering, the upward momentum may be long and full of imbalances and uncertainties.” The report stated that after the rebound in 2021, the global The economic growth rate will gradually slow to around 3.5% in the medium term.
China’s output this year is expected to exceed the level of 2019. With the exception of China, the output of advanced economies, emerging markets, and developing economies will be lower than 2019 levels even next year.
In addition, foreign media also believe that the economic gap between China and the United States is shrinking.
The Nikkei Asian Review reported on the 16th that the IMF's forecast shows that China will return to 8% growth by 2021, and the economic gap between China and the United States will be reduced to 25%. The advantages and disadvantages of the world economic power pattern become obvious Complete control of the epidemic and sound financial conditions have become factors affecting the success or failure of developed countries and emerging market countries.
China was the first to contain the epidemic and the economy is recovering. The economy grew by 3.2% from April to June, and it is expected to grow by more than 5% from July to September.
From April to June, the actual gross domestic product (GDP) in US dollars reached 3.3 trillion US dollars, and the gap with the United States (4.3 trillion US dollars), which had shrunk by more than 30% annually, narrowed to 23%.
China's obvious recovery is due to the high ratio of manufacturing, which has been less hit by the epidemic.
About 40% of China's GDP comes from the manufacturing sector, and exports in September increased by 9.9% year-on-year, reaching the highest level in a year and a half.
If calculated according to the forecast of the IMF, the GDP of the United States in 2021 will be 21.2 trillion US dollars and China will be 15.8 trillion US dollars.
In 2008, when the financial crisis broke out, China's economy was only 31% of that of the United States, but by 2021 it will be close to 75%.
Author: Wei Feng