The CPI growth rate in September returned to the "1 era", how do prices go in the fourth quarter?

　　Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, October 15 -

　　Xinhua News Agency reporters Chen Weiwei and Chen Aiping

　　The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 15th. In September, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.7% year-on-year, and the increase was 0.7 percentage points lower than the previous month. It fell below 2% for the first time this year.

How to treat the fall in CPI growth?

Can prices continue to stabilize in the fourth quarter?

The reporter conducted interviews on hot issues.

Food prices drive CPI growth to fall

　　Food prices, especially pork prices, are an important factor affecting CPI growth.

The data shows that in September, food prices rose by 7.9% year-on-year, and the increase was 3.3 percentage points lower than the previous month, affecting the increase in CPI by about 1.69 percentage points.

Among them, pork prices rose by 25.5% year-on-year, a sharp drop of 27.1 percentage points from the previous month.

　　"The significant reduction in food price increases is the main reason for the decline in CPI." Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications, analyzed that affected by the increase in the base last year, the price increase of pork in September fell sharply year-on-year, which was the main reason for the decrease in food price increase. the reason.

　　“Although pork is still more expensive, it feels that the price is indeed lower than before. Recently, the prices of vegetables and fruits seem to be a little more expensive.” Ms. Liu told reporters at a convenient vegetable shop in Fengtai District, Beijing. There are ups and downs, and overall spending has not changed much.

　　The data confirmed her feelings.

In September, the price of fresh fruits rose 7.3% from August, but fell 6.9% from the same period last year; the price of fresh vegetables rose 2.4% from August, but the growth rate also declined.

　　According to Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, the price increase of fresh fruits was mainly due to the superimposed influence of seasons and festivals. The price increase of fresh vegetables was mainly affected by seasonal factors and rainfall in some areas.

　　According to expert analysis, as autumn vegetables are successively listed, market supply is expected to recover in a relatively short period of time, and the price of fresh vegetables will drop accordingly.

　　Pork prices have recently begun to fall, compared with August, pork prices fell 1.6%.

　　Guo Liyan, director of the Market and Price Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics, analyzes that with the active promotion of the expansion of live pig production capacity and the release of reserves and other measures to ensure supply and price stability, pork prices have continued to decline recently.

　　Up to now, the national stocks of live pigs and reproductive sows have returned to the level of more than 80% of normal years, and the proportion of large-scale pig breeding has increased to 53%.

The relevant person in charge of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that the relationship between pork supply and demand will be further eased in the fourth quarter.

Non-food prices are relatively stable

　　From a year-on-year perspective, non-food prices remained unchanged from the same period last year.

Among them, the price of health care rose 1.5% year-on-year, the price of education, culture and entertainment rose 0.7%, and the price of transportation and communications dropped 3.6%.

　　"In September, my friend and I took a short trip around Shanghai and found that the hotel prices were a bit more expensive than before. The Mid-Autumn Festival approaching the National Day is another peak consumption season, not only in Shanghai, but I feel that the prices of high-quality hotels in the entire Yangtze River Delta are higher than in the off-season. It's still very tight." Shanghai citizen Zheng Bing told reporters.

　　Recently, as the situation of my country's epidemic prevention and control has improved, the resumption of work and production, and the resumption of business have accelerated, and the life service industry has gradually recovered, and the prices of some services have risen in the short term.

　　According to Dong Lijuan, with the gradual recovery of entertainment consumption and the increase in the number of movie viewers, the price of movie tickets increased by 4.1% compared to August; the new semester begins, the fees of extracurricular education and some private schools have increased, and the price of education services has increased by 1.6% compared with August; The summer and autumn seasons change, and clothing prices have risen 0.9% from August.

　　In Guo Liyan's view, the prices of education, culture, entertainment, and family services have been affected by factors such as the school season and accelerated recovery of consumption. Both the month-on-month and year-on-year rises have shown slight increases, which has supported the continued rise of core CPI.

Under the normalized epidemic prevention and control, production and life are advancing steadily, and the stability of the CPI operation center has been enhanced.

CPI growth in the fourth quarter may continue to fall

　　On the whole, prices remained stable in September.

Dong Lijuan believes that in September, all localities actively implemented the "six stability" and "six guarantees" policies and normalized epidemic prevention and control measures, and the market supply and demand situation was generally stable.

　　Since the beginning of this year, the year-on-year increase in CPI has been high and low. After reaching a high of 5.4% in January, it fell back to the 2% platform in the second quarter and further fell below 2% in September.

From January to September this year, national consumer prices rose by 3.3% over the same period last year.

　　Liu Xuezhi analyzed that with the recovery of tourism, accommodation and other industries, non-food prices are expected to gradually stabilize and rise slightly in the future.

However, consumption recovery is relatively slow, and non-food prices may remain at a low level.

In addition, live pig production continues to recover and stocks continue to increase, and pork prices will steadily decrease.

The second half of last year was a period of rising pork prices. In the fourth quarter of this year, the year-on-year increase in pork prices will significantly narrow.

　　"Looking forward to the fourth quarter, due to the significant drop in CPI carry-over factors, and considering the gradual easing of the structural increase in food prices, it is expected that the average increase in CPI in the fourth quarter will further decline from the third quarter." The annual price control target of around 3.5% has a solid foundation.