Chinanews client, Beijing, October 15th (Reporter Xie Yiguan) On the 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September.

Many institutions predict that as the price of pork goes down, the increase in CPI may decline.

CPI year-on-year growth chart.

From the National Bureau of Statistics

CPI year-on-year increase or return to "1 era"

  The pace of rise of the "Second Brothers" slowed down. In August, the CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year, which was 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month.

How will the CPI increase in September change?

Let’s take a look at pork prices, which have been at the “C” position in the CPI increase factor for many months.

  According to the “National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System” of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in September, the average wholesale price of pork (white strip meat wholesale average price) was 47.38 yuan/kg, down 2.1% month-on-month and up 31.9% year-on-year. The month narrowed sharply. 

  "Food prices have weakened since September. The weekly price index of edible agricultural products has a small increase from the previous month, with an average of 139.7 points, a slight increase of 0.3% from the previous month, and a year-on-year increase of approximately 5%." Senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center Liu Xuezhi said that pork prices fell month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth rate narrowed significantly, driving the month-on-month increase in food prices in September. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate will narrow to single digits.

  "In addition, retail fuel prices fell once in September, and non-food prices are still weak. With the gradual recovery of service consumer demand, non-food prices have formed a certain degree of support. In addition, the September carryover factor dropped by 0.9 Percentage points have an impact on the year-on-year increase in CPI. Based on the above factors, it is expected that the year-on-year increase in CPI in September will be significantly narrowed, possibly between 1.5% and 1.9%, with the median value being 1.7%.” Liu Xuezhi pointed out.

  According to Flush ifind statistics, the average forecast value of 24 institutions for September CPI year-on-year increase is 1.93%.

Among them, the predicted maximum value is 3.90%, and the minimum value is 1.60%.

If the above average forecast value is fulfilled, the CPI increase in September will drop significantly from August, and it will return to the "1 era" after a lapse of 18 months.

Production capacity is restored to 80%, pork prices may peak and fall

  In recent months, although the year-on-year increase in pork prices has continued to shrink, it is still the main factor affecting the increase in CPI, especially the increase in food prices.

How pork prices go will affect the future trend of CPI growth.

  On October 10, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a national live pig production recovery video scheduling promotion meeting and pointed out that up to now, the national live pig and reproductive sow stocks have returned to the level of more than 80% of normal years, and the proportion of large-scale pig breeding has increased to 53%.

  "The'pig cycle' has entered a downward channel, and pork prices have peaked and fallen." said Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities. On the one hand, the stock of live pigs and reproductive sows continued to rise steadily; on the other hand, the demand for pork has been rising. It has rebounded, but it is difficult to be stronger than the same period last year.

  "At present, pig farming is in the recovery period of production capacity, and it is expected to enter the production capacity cashing period in the fourth quarter." Sun Fu, chief macro analyst at West China Securities, said that from now until the Spring Festival, pork will show a "booming supply and demand, and high supply." The price will drop.

Next year, from the Spring Festival to the middle of the year, the slaughter volume will increase in an all-round way, the supply will rise sharply, and the demand will enter the off-season after the holiday. It is expected that the pig price will drop significantly.

Data map: Changsha citizens buy pork in supermarkets.

Photo by Lu Yi

In the future, the

price of pork will fall, will the CPI increase or be negative now?

  According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, from October 5 to 11, the national market price of edible agricultural products dropped by 1.1% compared with the previous week, and the price of meat mainly fell.

Among them, the wholesale price of pork was 44.13 yuan per kilogram, down 3.1%; the price of beef dropped by 0.1%, and the price of mutton rose by 0.2%.

In addition, the price of poultry products dropped slightly, the price of aquatic products dropped slightly, the average wholesale price of 30 kinds of vegetables dropped by 0.2%, and the average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits dropped by 1.1%.

  "With the decline in pork prices, it is expected that the monthly increase in CPI during the year will continue to fall, reaching around 1% by the end of the year." Sun Fu said.

  Heping Cao, a professor at the School of Economics of Peking University, told the China News Network that although the CPI growth rate is expected to decline slightly in September, considering the pick-up of consumption and the increase in retail market demand, the CPI growth rate is expected to be between 2.2% and 2.4% in the fourth quarter.

  In the view of Everbright Securities, starting from August 2020, the CPI growth rate will re-enter the downward channel, and it will fall to between 1% and 1.1% in December.

The CPI growth rate in 2021 will show an evolutionary characteristic of "declining first, then rising and then falling". It may fall to a negative range in February next year, and then rise again, and continue until June 2021, after which it will enter a downward channel.