According to a "progress note" from the Retirement Orientation Council (COR), the pension system will suffer a deficit of at least 10 billion euros per year until 2024. For the year 2020, marked by the coronavirus epidemic, the deficit will be 25.4 billion euros, against 29.4 billion for the first forecasts.

The deficit of the pension system will plunge to more than 25 billion euros this year, before rising to 10 billion next year and then widening to 13 billion in 2024, according to a "progress note" from Retirement Guidance Council (COR), of which AFP obtained a copy on Tuesday.

This document, intended for Prime Minister Jean Castex, refines the forecasts made in June.

Loss of 10.2 billion in 2021

Four months ago, the COR was counting on an unprecedented loss of 29.4 billion euros in 2020 for all pension plans.

A loss of earnings due to Covid-19 and its consequences (unemployment, massive recourse to partial activity, postponements and exemptions from contributions), which have "a massive impact on the resources of the retirement system".

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The deficit would however be "a little less important" this year (-25.4 billion) "because of a slightly less degraded economy" than four months ago.

The expected rebound of the economy in 2021 should lead to an improvement in the accounts, with a loss brought down to -10.2 billion.

The annual report at the end of November

This improvement will be short-lived because the balance will then deteriorate to -11.6 billion in 2022, -12.1 billion in 2023 then -13.3 billion in 2024. A trajectory already traced before the health crisis, which would however cause " a need for additional financing "estimated at" a little less than 5 billion "per year from next year. 

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This "progress note" is a prelude to the COR annual report, expected at the end of November and which will serve as a basis for the discussions that the government intends to reopen on the pension reform, despite the unanimous opposition of the unions.