China's "Double Cycle" Helps World Economic Recovery
Wang Huiyao (Director of Globalization Think Tank (CCG))
According to calculations by the Data Center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival this year, the country received 637 million domestic tourists, a 79.0% year-on-year recovery on a comparable basis; domestic tourism revenue was 466.56 billion yuan, a 69.9% recovery on a comparable basis.
The US "New York Times" reported that consumption during the Golden Week reflects the state of China's economy from one aspect and sends a clear signal of China's economic recovery.
As an important economy that controlled the epidemic earlier, China's social and economic activities have basically returned to normal.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the second quarter, my country's GDP growth rate reached 3.2%, and the month-on-month growth rate reached 11.5%.
In August, the cumulative growth rate of industrial value added above designated size from January to August, the cumulative growth rate of exports of goods from January to August, and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in August were three indicators that turned positive for the first time this year.
The World Bank released a report in September, raising the forecast for China's economic growth this year to 2%, one percentage point higher than the June forecast, and predicting that the Chinese economy will grow by 7.9% next year.
The vitality and resilience of China's economy are inseparable from factors such as China's significant epidemic prevention and control effects, a huge consumer market, a complete industrial chain, and innovative applications of "Internet +" technology.
At the same time, with the adjustment of the national strategic layout and policy support, China is accelerating the pace of in-depth adjustment of its economic structure and development model, and is accumulating its efforts to embrace a higher level of strong development.
Improving supply-side structural reforms and promoting the transformation of China's economy from high-speed growth to high-quality growth are important directions for China's economic reform and development in recent years.
Since the beginning of this year, related strategies and policies such as the negative list of foreign investment access, the Hainan Free Trade Port, the new development pattern of "dual cycle", and the Beijing Pilot Free Trade Zone have been introduced.
Among them, the "dual cycle" new development pattern is a macroscopic layout with strategic guiding significance, which is in line with the general law of the rise of major countries.
At present, my country has established 21 free trade zones, including the Beijing Free Trade Zone, which play an important role in promoting the liberalization and facilitation of international trade and investment, and are an important measure for the mutual promotion of international and domestic dual cycles.
The "double cycle" not only brings China's domestic demand for foreign products and services to a new level, but also promotes the growth of global value chains.
China proposes to build a new development pattern of "dual cycles" and make full use of two markets and two resources. This is the inherent need for the high-quality development of China's economy and an objective requirement for rebalancing the global economy. It will drive the world while achieving its own stable development. Economic recovery and development.
In recent years, the world economic structure has undergone profound adjustments, especially affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the world economy has been in deep recession, international trade and investment have shrunk sharply, the international financial market has been turbulent, and protectionism and unilateralism have prevailed in some countries.
Under the background of weak international and domestic markets and unstable international economic and trade environment, tapping domestic demand, cultivating domestic demand, and giving full play to the role of domestic consumption in stimulating economic development are important measures to realize my country's economic recovery and development.
At present, China is the second largest economy in the world. The development of China's digital economy has stimulated new domestic consumer demand. 1.4 billion people, 1 billion smartphone users, 400 million middle-class scale, fast 5G network, two-thirds of the world China’s high-speed rail and China’s domestic poverty alleviation goal by the end of this year all show that China’s domestic demand has great potential.
At the same time, we must realize that domestic demand cannot replace external demand. Balancing domestic and external demand is the meaning of building a new development pattern of "double cycles".
Emphasizing the large domestic circulation does not mean reducing the international circulation. On the contrary, the improvement of China's domestic circulation will help a stronger international circulation.
In the context of the international economic downturn, to build a new development pattern of "dual cycles", it is necessary to make better use of the pulling effect of the internal cycle on the basis of making the internal cycle bigger and stronger, and at the same time stimulate the quality and upgrade of the internal cycle to form a " "Double Cycle" two-wheel drive strategy.
At present, China is the largest trading partner of more than 120 countries and regions, including Japan, South Korea, and the European Union, and the largest export market for many countries.
Eurostat recently released data showing that in the first seven months of this year, the total import and export volume of the 27 EU member states and China was 328.7 billion euros, an increase of approximately 2.6% year-on-year. For the first time, China surpassed the United States to become the EU's largest trading partner.
In addition, China has maintained the status of ASEAN's largest trading partner for 11 consecutive years, has become Africa's largest trading partner for 10 consecutive years, and has become the largest trading partner of South America and the second largest trading partner of Latin American countries.
In the context of economic globalization, China is closely linked to the economic recovery and development of many countries and regions. The high-quality development of the Chinese economy can drive other countries and regions to accelerate their economic recovery.
Moreover, with the steady progress of the "Belt and Road" construction and China's digital economy leading new trends and stimulating new demands, China's economic and trade cooperation with other regions still has great potential.
In recent years, with the adjustment of the supply side structure and the expansion of opening to the outside world, China is forming a virtuous cycle system in which imports and exports are balanced, the use of foreign capital and foreign investment are coordinated, and the growth momentum is more dependent on domestic demand, especially consumer demand. The industrial chain has contributed to the promotion of a virtuous circle of the global economy.
The global spread of the new crown epidemic has shown the risks of close ties between countries in the era of globalization, and has also alerted the world to the huge cost of isolation.
In the face of the epidemic, no country is an island, and cooperating with each other requires the cooperation of all countries.
In the context of China's first strong economic recovery, China can make a positive contribution to the recovery of the world economy.
Further deepening the development of opening up, playing the exemplary role of 21 free trade zones, reducing the negative list of foreign investment access, and creating a fair and just legalized business environment are not only the only way for the high-quality development of China's economy, but also to promote the recovery of the world economy. Development is an important measure to increase the well-being of people of all countries.