China-Singapore Jingwei Client, October 11th (Dong Xiangyi) Although the property market has not seen a hot market during the "Golden Week" this year, the National Day holiday has just ended and Xuzhou, Jiangsu took the lead in launching control policies, followed by Shaoxing, Zhejiang. .
The policies of the two places coincided with the focus on the management of the record price of commercial housing, and at the same time, they once again clarified restrictions on sales, "limiting land prices, and competing for construction."
According to agency data, the number of national real estate control policies in the first September of this year was as high as 403.
The analysis believes that Xuzhou and Shaoxing issued policies to further illustrate the guidance of non-relaxation of regulation.
Especially in the fourth quarter, national real estate companies will actively promote and destock. At this time, it is also critical to stabilize the market order.
It is expected that in the fourth quarter there will still be adjustments throughout the country, focusing on the implementation of the "three stability" policy.
In addition, real estate sales promotion will still have a certain driving effect on transactions, the overall decline in market size will be controllable, and house prices will remain stable.
At the same time, the strict implementation of the "three red lines" will be postponed to 2023, which has also been confirmed by the media as a misunderstanding, and will still be fully implemented in the entire industry from 2021.
As for whether to affect housing prices, in the opinion of experts, since the current policy is definitely not implemented, it has no impact on the market.
Xuzhou and Shaoxing introduced regulation after the festival
Start the property market "double gun"
On the evening of October 9, the official website of the Xuzhou Municipal Housing and Urban-rural Construction Bureau issued the "Notice on Further Promoting the Healthy Development of the Urban Real Estate Market", informing about the supply of homes, price management for record, decoration behavior and price supervision, real estate financial policies, commercial housing sales restrictions, Many aspects such as housing security are clarified.
The notice clarified that the management of the sales price of commercial residential buildings should be strengthened.
For newly-recorded commercial residential projects, one-time price filing shall be implemented for parcels with a construction area of less than 100,000 square meters; price filings may be carried out in installments for parcels with a construction area of more than 100,000 square meters, and each filing shall not be less than 100,000 square meters Rice, the last phase is less than 100,000 square meters, and the record is based on the facts; the record price cannot be adjusted within one year.
Source: Xuzhou Housing Construction Bureau website
Xuzhou also stipulates that all financial institutions should strengthen the review of the use of credit funds and flow detection, and adopt various effective measures to strictly prevent consumer loans and other loans from being used to purchase houses in violation of regulations.
Xuzhou’s "continue to adhere to the policy of restricting transactions in commercial housing" is not new.
According to Xuzhou's "Notice on Improving the Opinions on the Stable and Healthy Development of the Urban Real Estate Market" in June 2018, the sales restriction policy had been implemented at that time.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, told reporters from Sino-Singapore Jingwei that even if the content of the policy is reiterated, it will continue to release signals of policy tightening. At least similar to the six-year restriction on sales, it can also regulate housing transactions and prevent various types of restrictions. Housing speculation has also further magnified the effect of the restriction on sales.
According to the 70-city housing price data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in August, the sales price of new commercial housing in Xuzhou increased by 0.8% month-on-month and 11.6% year-on-year, second only to Yinchuan, Tangshan, and Xining; the sales price of second-hand housing increased by 0.8% month-on-month. , The year-on-year increase was 7.3%.
According to data from Xuzhou Yibaifang, in the first three quarters of this year, the total income from land transactions in Xuzhou reached 37.28 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 73% year-on-year, ranking 29th in the country.
In quarterly terms, the total amount of land transactions in Xuzhou was close to 12.5 billion yuan in just July, August, and September.
"The introduction of the policy in Xuzhou this time further illustrates the orientation to the stability of housing prices and expectations." In Yan Yuejin's view, the latest phase of Xuzhou's new commercial housing price index has the fourth largest year-on-year increase in the country. It is a city with overheated housing prices, so the policy was introduced. In line with expectations.
On the same day, Shaoxing, a prefecture-level city in Zhejiang Province, followed Xuzhou and became the second city to upgrade regulation after the National Day holiday.
According to data from the Centaline Real Estate Research Center, Shaoxing is the 27th city in the country to tighten control policies.
The Shaoxing Municipal Housing and Urban-rural Construction Bureau issued the "Notice on Further Promoting the Stable Operation of the Real Estate Market", emphasizing the strict implementation of the policy of "limiting land prices and bidding for construction", the strict implementation of the "dual filing" system, strict phased sales management, and strict regulation of market order. Strictly implement the main responsibility.
Source: Shaoxing Housing and Urban-rural Development Bureau website
The most important aspect of the policy is to strictly implement the "dual filing" system.
The price filing of newly opened projects must comprehensively consider other similar housing prices in the same area or "land price + cost" and other factors, and the price filing of additional projects shall not be higher than the price of commercial housing filed for the first time.
Some analysts believe that this provision means that the autonomy of developers is compressed, and the right to decide the record price tends to be regulated by the government.
For developers, the setting of their filing prices will be more scientific and reasonable, and subject to stricter supervision, and the filing prices will not have large fluctuations; for buyers, the prices of properties on sale will also be effectively controlled, and there is no need to Worry about the ups and downs of housing prices.
In addition, for those who have obtained the pre-sale permit or have already handled the registration of the sale of existing houses, all the listings and the price of each house shall be disclosed at once within ten days, and the sale shall not be higher than the declared price.
In addition, increase land supply and implement differentiated land supply.
Strictly implement the policy of "limiting land prices and competing for construction", and strictly control the premium rate and floor price.
Yan Yuejin pointed out that from the content of Shaoxing's property market policy, there are fewer references to purchase restrictions and loan restrictions, and more focus on land prices and housing prices.
This also shows that in the current special period, the housing transaction is still encouraged, but we must guard against the speculation of land prices and housing prices.
However, institutional data show that housing prices in Shaoxing show no signs of rising recently.
According to data from Fang Tianxia, the average reference price of second-hand housing in Shaoxing in September was 9,436 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 9.29% from August and a decrease of 21.65% from the same period last year.
New latitude and longitude in the data map
Limited policy impact in the two places
National real estate regulation up to 403 times
"These policies are all looking at the excitement, there is no fundamental change, and the credit is not fully tightened." Zhang Dawei, the chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, told a reporter from Sino-Singapore Jingwei. "Look at the content of the control policies in these two cities separately. Close, the actual control policy is not strong, mainly because of the tightening of the filing price adjustment, which is expected to have a certain impact on the market. But the impact is limited."
Yan Yuejin said that after the "11th" holiday, including Xuzhou and Shaoxing, policies were introduced to further illustrate the guidance of non-relaxation of regulation.
Especially in the fourth quarter, national real estate companies will actively promote and destock. At this time, it is also critical to stabilize the market order.
At the same time, there was news after the holiday that the strict implementation of the "three red lines" would be postponed to 2023.
According to a report by the Shanghai Securities News, the news is suspected of being misunderstood. The "three red lines" policy has not been postponed and will still be fully implemented in the industry from 2021.
According to media reports, the "three red lines" mean that the asset-liability ratio of real estate companies after excluding advance receipts should not exceed 70%; the net debt ratio of real estate companies should not exceed 100%; and the "short-term cash debt ratio" of real estate companies should be less than 1.
With the gradual tightening of the financing side of real estate enterprises, the probability of developers increasing discounts and promotions in order to reduce debts may increase greatly. As for whether it directly or indirectly affects housing prices, in the opinion of experts, it is certain that the current policy has not been implemented, so No impact on the market.
When the policy is implemented in the future, it will not be too late to look at the impact.
In the third quarter of 2020, the central government held several meetings to emphasize that the positioning of "housing and housing, not speculation" remains unchanged, and it has deployed regulatory measures from multiple aspects.
Since July, many places have tightened control policies, such as Hangzhou, Ningbo, Shenzhen, Chengdu and other cities to stabilize market expectations.
From the point of view of the content of regulation, the policies introduced by various regions are mainly manifested in the purchase restriction, loan restriction upgrade, sales restriction period increase, value-added tax exemption period increase, land market control is strengthened, market supervision is clarified, and high-level talents and families without houses are given priority to purchase houses Etc., to ensure rigid demand and curb real estate speculation.
Statistics from Centaline Real Estate Research Center show that in September this year, the total number of national real estate regulation and control measures totaled 35. From July to September alone, more than 27 cities issued more than 30 tightening policies; from January to September, the total number of national real estate regulation and control policies reached 403. Times.
Zhang Dawei believes that although the tightening of regulatory policies in various regions from August to September is not strong, it still represents the trend of real estate regulation. One city and one policy. Housing and housing are not speculated to maintain the stability of the real estate market. If the increase is too fast, it will inevitably lead to Regulate and upgrade.
The latest report "China's Real Estate Market Summary and Trends for the Third Quarter of 2020" released by the China Index Research Institute pointed out that looking forward to the fourth quarter, due to urban policies, some cities with strong expectations of house prices and land prices will continue to upgrade their property market policies. Stabilize expectations, but with the gradual manifestation of policy effects, the room for policy tightening has been significantly reduced.
Some cities will further increase the introduction of talents by increasing housing subsidies and strengthening housing security, and relaxing restrictions on settlement will also further promote the development of the real estate market.
The Golden Week property market fades
House prices in the fourth quarter
According to statistics released by many agencies, the National Day holiday just past did not give the property market too many opportunities for performance. The performance of the "Silver Ten" was weak, and the new and second-hand housing markets showed a "uneven hot and cold" scene.
The analysis believes that with the increase of residents' demand for tourism, buyers pay more attention to travel during long holidays, and their attention to the property market has weakened. The so-called Golden Week of the National Day property market has faded in the past three years.
According to the monitoring data of Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, during the double holiday, the sales area of new houses in 10 key cities (Beijing, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Suzhou, Dalian, Fuzhou, Qingdao, Dongguan, Wenzhou, Tai'an) was 728,600 square meters, which was the same as last year’s National Day Week. Compared with a slight increase of 1.6%.
On the whole, this year’s holiday sales volume is basically the same as last year, but since this year’s holiday is one day longer than previous years, in terms of average daily sales area, the average daily sales area of the top 10 cities in 2020 will be 91,100 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1% .
The average daily sales area is the lowest since 2015 during the National Day Week.
Source: Zhuge looking for a house
In terms of the second-hand housing market, data released by the Shell Research Institute shows that in the 18 cities monitored during the Golden Week, the average daily transaction volume of second-hand housing increased by 50% over the same period last year, and the average transaction price of second-hand housing increased by 12% year-on-year.
Zhang Dawei believes that the impact of the epidemic on the real estate market has passed, and the subsequent market will continue to heat up.
However, the frequent occurrence of regulatory policies kept the increase at a "warm" level.
According to the report of the Zhongzhi Research Institute, the national real estate market in the fourth quarter will show a situation of "a small adjustment in market size, a slowdown in enthusiasm for new construction, and a relatively high level of investment growth."
Under the tightened regulation, demand will return rationally, and the market scale will return to the adjustment channel under the effect of the cycle. However, the active promotion strategy adopted by real estate companies will still have a certain driving effect on transactions, and the overall decline in market size will be controllable; the overall operation of housing prices will remain stable Mainly, the increase in improved products and the emergence of first- and second-line de-distribution advantages will drive the average sales price to continue to maintain a slight increase.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
(The opinions in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)
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