Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, October 9th (Zhang Shunan) According to the principle of "one adjustment for ten working days", a new domestic product oil price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on the 9th, which is also the first round of adjustment after the holiday .
According to institutional analysis, the rate of change in crude oil during the current price adjustment cycle basically fluctuates positively, and domestic oil prices are likely to rise slightly.
New longitude and latitude Zhang Shunan in the data map
According to Longzhong Information, as of the ninth working day of the price adjustment cycle (September 29), the comprehensive rate of change in crude oil was 3.35%, corresponding to an increase of 110 yuan/ton.
From the current point of view, although international oil prices have risen and fallen sharply during the National Day, they have basically offset each other, and the upward adjustment is still a high probability event.
Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Meng Peng believes that since this cycle, under the multiple effects of factors such as the decline in US crude oil inventories, the increase in Libyan crude oil production, and the still severe global epidemic, the overall international oil price has shown a volatile trend, and there has been a single day. The plunge, the rate of change of crude oil fell from a positive high, and the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment.
According to Hu Xue, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, in the pricing mechanism with ten working days as the pricing cycle under normal circumstances, the last two working days have little impact on the retail price adjustment of refined oil products, but the current pricing cycle spans the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. During the double holiday, this means six crude oil trading days more than under normal circumstances. If the crude oil price level fluctuates too much during the National Day, the expected price adjustment of refined oil may change accordingly.
As of October 7, local time, international oil prices have fallen.
The price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $39.95 per barrel, a decrease of 1.77%; the price of London Brent crude oil futures for December delivery closed at $41.99 per barrel, a decrease of 1.55%.
Data released by the US Energy Information Administration on the 7th showed that US commercial crude oil inventories were 492.9 million barrels last week, an increase of 500,000 barrels from the previous month, which was higher than the market's expected 294,000 barrels.
Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client has noticed that since this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 18 adjustments, including 11 strandings, 4 downward adjustments, and 3 upward adjustments. Gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 1,860 yuan/ton and 1,790 yuan/ton respectively. .
Among them, six times failed to adjust due to triggering the "floor price" protection mechanism.
According to Longzhong Information, in terms of retail, the gasoline prices of 92# and 95# at Sinopec gas stations in Shandong are at 5.48 and 5.88 yuan/liter respectively. If this round of increase is implemented, oil prices may enter the "6 era".
In terms of gas stations, the retail price of gasoline at private gas stations has recently been 0.4-0.6 yuan/liter lower than that of main gas stations. During some site activities, the discount can reach 1.2-1.3 yuan/liter.
The next round of price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on October 22, 2020. Li Yan predicts that the next round of refined oil price adjustment will have a higher probability of a slight increase.
Meng Peng analyzed that after the holiday, there will be a wave of centralized replenishment operations in the market. However, as the demand for gasoline drops, domestic gasoline prices are expected to show a steady decline.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
All rights reserved by Sino-Singapore Jingwei. Without written authorization, no unit or individual may reprint, extract and use in other ways.