After the "hard landing", when will the global aviation industry "set sail"?

　[Finance] (Financial World) After the "hard landing", when will the global aviation industry "set sail"?

　　China News Service, Beijing, October 8 (Liu Liang) Under the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the global aviation industry has suffered heavy losses, and many world-renowned airlines have seen their revenues shrunk sharply. Salary cuts and layoffs are undercurrent.

After experiencing an unprecedented "hard landing", the industry estimates that it will take at least four years for the global aviation industry to return to the level before the epidemic.

　　The epidemic has caused a severe impact on the global aviation industry that is rare in history.

Affected by the severe shrinkage of flight traffic, major airlines are facing challenges such as grounding aircraft and reducing orders, and their revenue has also fallen sharply.

　　In order to cope with the challenge of the sharp decline in revenue, major airlines have to cut costs through salary cuts, layoffs, and extended vacations.

For example, United Airlines previously announced that it would issue a layoff notice for its 36,000 employees; Philippine Airlines also announced that it would lay off 2,700 employees, accounting for more than 30% of the total number of employees.

　　But even so, it is still difficult to hide the bleak prospects of the aviation industry.

According to a recent statement issued by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), airlines around the world have cut spending by more than 50% in the second quarter of this year, but airline revenues over the same period are still 80% lower than last year.

IATA predicts that global airlines are expected to spend US$77 billion in cash in the second half of this year, which is equivalent to US$300,000 per minute.

　　"Failure to make ends meet" has become a problem for major airlines.

IATA analysts said that the summer of previous years was the "golden period" of airline revenue, and airlines would also use this to accumulate reserve funds to cope with winter off-season expenditures.

However, this year, affected by the epidemic, the northern hemisphere airlines' revenues in the spring and summer seasons are bleak, and the off-season reserves have been stretched.

　　At present, the outbreak of epidemics in various countries has also made the recovery of the global aviation industry full of variables.

The number of confirmed cases of the epidemic in the United States is still high, and European countries such as France and Germany are facing a rebound of the epidemic in recent days. In many cities, the number of new confirmed cases in a single day has reached a record high. .

　　Under the impact of the epidemic, at least 20 airlines worldwide have declared bankruptcy and reorganization.

The surviving airlines are also actively implementing the "self-help" strategy.

The sharp decline in the number of international tourists has made local tourism the key to the industry’s recovery.

Global tourist survey research also shows that most tourists who plan to travel want to start at home.

　　Against the background that international long-distance travel demand continues to be sluggish and there is little possibility of improvement in the short term, Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand and other countries are vigorously stimulating local tourism through subsidized accommodation and transportation, travel e-vouchers, and discount flights.

Airlines from Japan, Brunei and other countries have also launched short-distance sightseeing flight services.

　　According to a report from the World Tourism Organization, based on the experience of past crises, leisure tourism (especially travel for the purpose of visiting relatives and friends) is expected to recover faster than business travel.

However, industry insiders believe that this also means that the "recovery" of airline revenue will be relatively slow, because long-distance travel and business travel are usually the main sources of airline revenue.

　　It is worth mentioning that at a time when the global aviation industry is suffering, the continued improvement of China's epidemic prevention and control situation has created a favorable environment for the resumption of the Chinese aviation industry.

Industry data shows that since the second half of the year, China's major airlines have achieved year-on-year growth in traffic volume, and flight volume has continued to increase.

　　According to Zhao Wei, a professor at the Civil Aviation Management College of China, the pace of China's civil aviation recovery is currently at the forefront of the world. In the next few months, the domestic flight volume and transportation volume of China's civil aviation is expected to reach or exceed the level of 2019.

However, in the context of the uncertain situation of the epidemic situation in various countries, the recovery of the global aviation industry is still relatively difficult.

　　Under the influence of the epidemic, IATA estimates that the economic losses of global airlines this year will reach 84 billion U.S. dollars. It is estimated that this year’s revenue will be 419 billion U.S. dollars, which is only half of last year’s. Global air passenger traffic will not recover until at least 2024. The level before the epidemic.

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