International sharp review丨China's new development pattern adds impetus to world economic recovery

　　During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival this year, Chinese people who have achieved positive results in epidemic prevention and control have been enthusiastic about consumption.

According to data released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism of China, on the first day of the holiday, the country received 97 million domestic tourists, a 73.8% year-on-year recovery on a comparable basis; tourism revenue was 76.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year recovery of 68.9% on a comparable basis.

The continuous recovery of consumption is effectively helping China gradually form a new development pattern in which the domestic large cycle is the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promote each other.

　　Since the 2008 international financial crisis, the world economy has always been in a period of in-depth adjustment, coupled with the current impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the impact of unilateralism and protectionism on the global industrial chain supply chain, the road to world economic recovery can be described as complex and difficult.

In the dark, China's economy is bringing light, especially in August, a number of economic data "turned positive", bringing new hope to the world economy.

The OECD recently issued a press release stating that in the second quarter of this year, most of the G20 members experienced unprecedented economic decline, and China was the only member that achieved positive economic growth.

The World Bank issued a report on September 28, raising the forecast for China's economic growth this year to 2%, 1% higher than the June forecast.

Because of this, the international community increasingly wants to know how China will build a new development pattern and what development opportunities it can bring to the world.

　　In fact, since the occurrence of the international financial crisis in 2008, China's economy has shifted to a major domestic cycle.

There are two sets of data worthy of attention. One is that the ratio of current account surplus to GDP has dropped from 9.9% in 2007 to less than 1% now; the other is that domestic demand has contributed 7 percent to economic growth since 2008. The year exceeds 100%.

It can be seen that the new development pattern has been developed logically on the basis of long-term practice in the past and fully conforms to the trend of China's economic development. It is China's long-term proactive action, and it is by no means a passive response in the context of increasing external environmental uncertainty.

　　This pattern emphasizes the "domestic cycle as the main body", which means that the expansion of domestic demand will be used as a strategic basis to transform the huge domestic demand potential into a powerful driving force for high-quality development.

China has a large market of 1.4 billion people and a middle-class group of 400 million, and the trend of consumption upgrading is obvious.

At the same time, China has the world's most complete and largest industrial supply system, and the digital economy including online shopping, distance education, telemedicine, etc. is booming, all of which provide a powerful boost to accelerate the formation of a new development pattern.

　　It needs to be pointed out that the new development pattern is by no means a closed domestic cycle, but an open domestic and international double cycle, which will bring China closer to the world economy.

On the one hand, China's expansion of domestic demand will inevitably bring "Chinese opportunities" to the world, including providing increased demand for the global economy and providing broader market opportunities and investment opportunities for other countries.

Makoto Uchida, CEO of Nissan Motor Co., said a few days ago that the Chinese auto market has rebounded rapidly from the epidemic, and the company's key areas have returned to the level of a year ago, or even slightly improved.

　　On the other hand, the effective operation of China's industrial system contributes to the stable operation of the global industrial chain.

People have seen that China has taken the lead in controlling the epidemic, taking the lead in resuming work and production, and the economy has been recovering steadily.

China's total imports and exports in August increased by 6% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 11.6%, and the cumulative export growth rate turned positive for the first time this year.

People have also noticed that in the first six months of this year, China-Europe Express trains have increased 30% year-on-year growth in import and export goods, becoming a “steel camel” that stabilizes the international supply chain.

Frank Zelling, a well-known German expert on China issues, recently published an article saying that as the world's largest production base and sales market, China's importance in the global supply chain will continue to increase in the next few years.

　　"China's door to opening up will not be closed, it will only open wider and wider." Even in the face of severe challenges such as the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the deep recession of the world economy, China continues to introduce new reform and opening measures.

For the first time, the Canton Fair has been moved to the “cloud” as a whole, the “Overall Plan for the Construction of Hainan Free Trade Port” was officially issued, the 2020 version of the negative list of foreign investment access has been further reduced, the online and offline integration of the Service Trade Fair will be held, and the third CIIE will be held as scheduled ... China's opening-up measures have continued to be implemented, which has greatly boosted the confidence of foreign investors.

In an interview recently, Chen Kaifeng, chief economist of the US Huisheng Financial Management Company, said that in the process of implementing a diversified layout, China's market potential and opening opportunities are difficult to be ignored and abandoned. In the future, foreign companies will continue to actively invest in China.

　　Recently, there was another piece of good news: FTSE Russell, one of the world’s three major bond index suppliers, announced that it will include Chinese government bonds in the FTSE World Treasury Bond Index from October 2021.

Prior to this, Chinese government bonds have been officially included in the JPMorgan Chase Global Emerging Markets Government Bond Index and Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index.

This is a positive result of the continuous expansion of China's economic opening up to the outside world, and it is also the due meaning of the mutual promotion of the domestic and international dual cycles.

　　After 71 years, New China has stood at a new historical starting point.

As a leading country in the world in terms of epidemic prevention and control and economic recovery, China will work hard to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, open new horizons amidst changes, and continue to open up space for China's economic development and add impetus to the recovery of the world economy.

　　(International sharp commentator)