Many cities issued consumer vouchers to focus on catering and other industries
In August, the total amount of social zeros turned positive for the first time, but the cumulative decline was still 8.6%; all localities urged holiday consumption, experts: the November holiday consumption will welcome explosive growth
The first short holiday after the epidemic situation in my country has basically stabilized is obviously high hopes of boosting national consumption.
A reporter from the Beijing News noted that this year’s National Consumption Promotion Month event kicked off on September 9 and lasted until October 8.
And this consumption feast will escalate with the advent of the holiday. The Ministry of Commerce previously revealed that during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, more than 1,300 consumer promotion activities involving upstream and downstream, production, supply and marketing, domestic and foreign trade enterprises will be held in various regions, including foreign trade and export transfer. Domestic sales, time-honored national trends, and poverty alleviation consumption of agricultural products, etc., allow consumers to enjoy preferential treatment and benefits.
At the same time, in order to accelerate the market recovery, the "red envelope rain" of consumer coupons that have been issued across the country will continue to help.
Experts told the Beijing News reporter that under the influence of the holiday effect, consumption during the November holiday will usher in an explosive growth.
Why do you value this small holiday spending?
Since the beginning of this year, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has hit my country's consumer market, but as the epidemic prevention and control situation stabilizes, consumption is gradually recovering.
The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that the total retail sales of consumer goods in August (hereinafter referred to as the total social zero) reached 3,357.1 billion yuan, an increase of 0.5% year-on-year, which is the first time this year to achieve positive growth.
Among them, the growth rate of the retail sales of communication equipment products is eye-catching, with a year-on-year increase of 25.1%. In addition, the retail sales of beverages, cosmetics, gold, silver and jewelry, and daily necessities have also increased by more than 10% year-on-year, which is particularly worthwhile The focus is on automobile consumption. Under the stimulus of multiple policies to boost automobile consumption, the retail sales of automobile products have continued to increase year-on-year in July and August, with monthly increases of 12.3% and 11.8% respectively. These are all powerful Spurred the return to growth of total social zero in August.
However, as a whole, in the first eight months of this year, my country's total social zero still fell by 8.6% year-on-year, so a steady stream of momentum is still needed to boost consumption.
This is also the main reason why the consumption situation of this year's November and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday has attracted much attention.
In this regard, the Ministry of Commerce and local governments hope to further promote people's holiday consumption by issuing consumer vouchers and organizing various activities.
This year's National Consumption Promotion Month will be held from September 9th to October 8th, covering the October and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays.
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, two weeks after the launch of the 2020 National Consumption Promotion Month, 179 key cities have carried out nearly 2,000 events.
According to the monitoring of the third-party payment platform, the total national consumption of goods and services in the first two weeks of the event was about 1.9 trillion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 7.4%.
During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, there will be more than 1,300 consumer promotion activities involving upstream and downstream, production, supply and marketing, and domestic and foreign trade companies. At the same time, many large e-commerce platforms will also launch festive consumer coupons during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. , Mid-Autumn Food Festival and other promotional activities, some platforms will also set up special promotions for consumer poverty alleviation.
What is the driving force of "spending money" on consumer coupons?
According to statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, in the first two weeks of the National “Consumption Promotion Month” in 2020, consumption promotion activities have been steadily promoted in various regions, and a total of 160 million yuan of consumer vouchers have been issued in eight regions including Jiangsu, Shanxi and Yunnan.
According to statistics from Galaxy Securities, as of September 17, since the outbreak of the epidemic, the central government has issued a total of 8 consumer promotion policies, and the local level has issued a total of 216 consumer promotion policies, many of which are policies for issuing consumer vouchers.
During this long holiday, many cities also used consumer vouchers to “spend money”. Among them, from September 14 to November 8, the Chengdu Municipal Government will issue more than 200 million yuan on the basis of 200 million yuan in subsidies. Coupons.
Taiyuan electronic consumer vouchers will be issued in the first round on September 19, and will be divided into 15 rounds, setting up four types of consumer vouchers for accommodation, catering, retail, home appliances, and department stores.
In fact, the cities that issued consumer vouchers as early as March have shown the power of “leverage”. The consumer vouchers issued by Hangzhou have been written off by 220 million yuan, driving consumption of 2.37 billion yuan, with a multiplier effect of 10.7 times; Zhengzhou first issue 50 million yuan of consumer vouchers, 11.524 million yuan was issued two days to write off, driving consumption of 128 million yuan, the multiplier effect reached 11 times.
According to the calculations of Zhongtai Securities, without the use of consumer coupons, the year-on-year growth rate of the national social zero this year is about 2.3%, and assuming that the total amount of consumer coupons issued in the country is 80-360 billion yuan, it will be carried out in the range of 10-15 times leverage. It is estimated that the corresponding year-on-year growth rate of social zero for the whole year is 4.2%-15.4%.
According to the statistics of the brokerage research report, just about a month after the emergence of the first batch of consumer voucher cities, about 80 provinces, cities, and districts (counties) nationwide have announced the issuance of consumer vouchers, with a total amount of tens of billions.
A reporter from the Beijing News sorted out and noticed that more consumer vouchers are invested in industries that are more affected by the epidemic, such as catering, tourism, culture, and sports, and some cities will "implement policies based on cities" to subsidize key local industries that are more affected.
Most consumer vouchers require a certain amount of consumption to be deductible, which will help give full play to the "leverage" of consumer vouchers.
Zhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, told the Beijing News reporter that the issuance of consumer vouchers is to stimulate consumption and release demand through subsidies.
From past experience, general consumer subsidy policies will drive consumption growth to new highs in the short term, especially in the areas that are mainly supported by consumer coupons.
However, consumer vouchers are not "inclusive", but where they need to be supplemented. Consumer vouchers are issued to industries that have been hit harder to help them recover faster.
Will there be an explosive growth in consumption under the epidemic?
Judging from the experience of previous years, the Golden Week of November is the peak of household consumption. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, from October 1 to 7, 2019, the national retail and catering companies achieved sales of 1.52 trillion yuan, compared with 2018. An increase of 8.5% over the same period.
During the small holiday this year under the epidemic, whether consumption can reproduce the excitement and prosperity of previous years, all parties may still be watching.
Fu Yifu, a senior researcher at the Suning Financial Research Institute, told the Beijing News that from historical experience, in previous years, the National Day holiday was the time when consumption was concentrated. Driven by the holiday effect, tourism, retail, catering, hotels, Various fields such as leisure and entertainment have experienced considerable growth.
"In the early part of this year, due to the impact of the epidemic, all walks of life were generally impacted to a certain extent, but at present, the situation of domestic epidemic prevention and control continues to improve and tends to stabilize. Offline consumer scenes that have been heavily impacted by the epidemic, such as tourism , Movie watching, etc. have been restarted, and the growth momentum is also good."
Fu Yifu said that everyone’s consumer confidence and enthusiasm are constantly improving, and some consumption plans are also on the agenda, such as many people’s previous travel plans, because the epidemic did not take place, they would choose to travel on November, which is equivalent to compensatory travel. , This can be expected; another example is theater consumption, which is currently gradually recovering. Although the recovery is not as expected, it can be seen that many blockbuster films are scheduled for National Day. Therefore, retaliatory viewing is also worth looking forward to.
Fu Yifu believes that overall, under the influence of the holiday effect, it can be foreseen that the energy consumption of this year's National Day holiday should not be much smaller than that of previous years, and consumption during the November holiday will definitely usher in a wave of explosive growth.
Beijing News reporter Pan Yichun