Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, September 29 (Xue Yufei) Since the epidemic, how has the real estate market in large and medium cities been trading?
According to a report released by the Shell Research Institute on the 28th, from January to September, the cumulative number of new housing transactions in 66 cities monitored by it fell by 9.4% year-on-year, and the total transaction area fell by 8.8% year-on-year. The rate of decline has narrowed compared with the second quarter. The cumulative transaction volume of second-hand housing in 18 key cities monitored by it increased by 4% year-on-year, and the impact of the epidemic on the second-hand housing market in key cities has been filled.
According to the analysis of experts from the Shell Research Institute, due to the early grabbing of housing companies and the upgrading of the property market in multiple locations, the "Golden Nine" phenomenon in the new house market did not appear, but a small peak of transactions may occur during the "Silver Ten" period.
In terms of second-hand housing, since the current round of property market regulation, the second-hand housing market has not had the so-called "golden nine silver ten" phenomenon. Instead, the transaction volume will be lower than in July and August. It is expected that it will remain in the buyer's market in the future.
"Golden Nine" did not show the recovery speed of first-tier cities to achieve overtake
According to statistics compiled by the Shell Research Institute, the total number of new houses in 66 cities in the third quarter of this year increased by 2.0% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month; the transaction area increased by 1.1% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month.
Since July, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Chengdu and other cities have introduced regulatory and upgrade policies to combat real estate speculation and prevent market fluctuations during the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" period. The transaction volume in September failed to drive the rapid data in the third quarter. Rising, the short-term effect of the policy appears.
From January to September, the cumulative number of new housing transactions in 66 cities fell by 9.4% year-on-year, and the total transaction area fell by 8.8% year-on-year, which was 5-6 percentage points narrower than the cumulative decline in the second quarter. The market recovery rate continued to slow along with the upgrading of local regulations .
In terms of different cities, first-tier cities achieved an overtake in their recovery speed in the third quarter, leading the country.
As of the third quarter, the transaction volume of the new housing market in first-tier cities has shifted from the largest decline to the smallest quarter-on-quarter compared to the second quarter, and the market has accelerated its recovery.
Although the number of new housing transactions and the transaction area in 66 cities from January to September decreased by about 10%, the performance of each city was different, with some cities falling sharply, while others rising against the trend.
The report shows that in the first three quarters of this year, the cumulative transaction area of the new housing market in Nanchang, Changzhou, Changchun, Wuhan, Wuxi, and Quanzhou decreased by 60.5%, 52.9%, 41.2%, 32.0%, 31.2%, and 28.8%, respectively. Nanjing, Dongguan, Chengdu, Yangzhou and Shenzhen rose 15.0%, 14.5%, 13.4%, 10.2%, and 9.4% respectively.
As the regulation and control of hot cities are upgraded, the market will gradually stabilize.
The report believes that Nanjing’s current cumulative transaction area growth rate has declined compared with the second quarter, and the regulatory effects will appear in the short term; Dongguan’s regulatory policies have given the market a window period of nearly one and a half months. Before the policies are fully implemented, the demand side will meet Actively enter the market, but the overall growth rate is relatively stable; Chengdu officially introduced its regulatory policies on September 14, and it is expected that the cumulative growth rate of transaction area in the fourth quarter will gradually decrease; Yangzhou's plan for integration of the Yangtze River Delta is good, and demand is released to a certain extent. The prospects are good.
Second-hand housing transaction volume achieves positive growth, Shenzhen drops by about 50%
According to the report, after the epidemic basically ended at the beginning of this year, demand for home purchases rebounded strongly in the second quarter, but slightly weakened in the third quarter. The actual second-hand residential transaction volume in the 18 cities monitored by it fell 9% from the previous quarter, and the market has cooled. .
Overall, in the first three quarters of this year, the cumulative transaction volume of second-hand housing in 18 key cities increased by 4% year-on-year, surpassing the same period in 2019. The impact of the epidemic on the second-hand housing market in key cities has been filled.
According to the report, in the third quarter, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in key cities generally fell, and the transaction volume in over 80% of the cities declined.
The cities with the highest decline rate are mainly in two categories. The first category is the cities that experienced overweight regulation in July, such as Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Nanjing. Among them, the volume of Shenzhen in the third quarter fell nearly 50% from the previous quarter, the largest decline, and Dongguan and Nanjing Respectively fell 42% and 25% from the previous month.
The other category is the cities in the Bohai Rim city cluster, such as Dalian, Langfang, and Jinan, whose month-on-month declines were 33%, 25%, and 19%, respectively.
The volume of transactions in Guangzhou, Wuhan and Xi'an continued to increase in the third quarter, with growth rates of 23%, 21%, and 19% respectively.
According to data from the Shell Research Institute, in the third quarter, the transaction prices of second-hand houses in key 18 cities continued to increase mainly, with 14 cities rising month-on-month. However, as the transaction volume declined, the average transaction price in key cities gradually lost momentum, exceeding 70%. Housing prices in key cities have narrowed or even turned down.
According to the report, the price increase of second-hand housing in Shenzhen in the third quarter narrowed by nearly 3 percentage points from the previous quarter. The monthly price of second-hand housing has stopped rising and flattening, and the effect of regulation and control has appeared and needs further fermentation.
The month-on-month increase in prices in Beijing narrowed significantly from 3.2% in the second quarter to 0.7%.
In 11 of the 14 cities with rising prices, the price increase was below 3%, and the price increase was moderate and gradually stabilized.
In the third quarter, the second-hand housing market in Guangzhou and Xi'an further heated up, which led to an increase in prices from the previous quarter, up 4.3% and 3.3%, respectively, ranking among the top 18 cities.
The price increase momentum of Bohai Rim cities is insufficient.
The second-hand housing prices in the Bohai Rim city cluster ranked at the bottom of the 18 cities. Among them, Dalian, Yantai and other cities increased by about 1% in the third quarter, a modest increase; Qingdao, Beijing and Tianjin prices were flat month-on-month; Langfang and Jinan prices The decline was relatively large, and fell for two consecutive quarters.
On a year-on-year basis, the increase in prices in Bohai Rim cities was also at the bottom, with prices in Jinan and Langfang down by 5.3% and 2.7% respectively.
National Day holiday promotes small peak transactions in the future in the buyer's market
Since the concept of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" was put forward, the market's attention has been high, but the new house market in September this year did not show excessive heat.
Regarding the lack of fineness of the "Golden Nine", Pan Hao, a senior analyst at the Shell Research Institute, analyzed on the 28th that according to monthly data, the market recovery in August this year was still relatively good, but there was some weakness in September. The reason is that the housing Companies started to grab and run in August, and at the end of August, the property market regulation and upgrade in many places were related. At the same time, there was a Mid-Autumn Festival missing in September this year, and the market lacked marketing nodes.
But he also said that looking at the data in August and September on average, the market is still going up, and there is a clear recovery process.
Pan Hao pointed out that according to the monitoring of the Shell Research Institute, near the end of September, the amount of real estate brokers to see has risen sharply, but there is no actual transaction volume. This shows that buyers have a wait-and-see mood before the holiday and look forward to the developer during the National Day holiday. Introduce more promotional activities.
Therefore, it is expected that there will be a small peak in new house transactions in the next 2-4 weeks, which will support the "Silver Ten" market, and there will be no sharp decline in prices.
Regarding the future performance of the second-hand housing market, Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute, said on the 28th that “Golden Nine Silver Ten” is a concept proposed by developers. From the performance of the second-hand housing market, especially since the current round of property market regulation, The real estate market no longer has the so-called "golden nine silver ten" phenomenon, and the transaction volume will be lower than in July and August.
Xu Xiaole said that the current second-hand housing transaction cycle is 126 days, which means that it takes four months from listing to transaction. The cycle is still long. With financial interest rates in a state of up and down, the second-hand housing market will continue to In a buyer's market, the upward momentum of the market is weak.
According to the report, the transaction volume of the second-hand housing market in the third quarter of this year remained at a relatively high volume, and transaction prices in key cities generally continued to rise. This led to insufficient demand savings in the future. The seasonal rebound at the end of the year may be weaker than in previous years. In larger cities, second-hand housing prices are likely to change from rising to falling.
Regionally, the second-hand housing zone in Beijing and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration did not decline in the third quarter but increased from the previous quarter. It is expected that the market performance in the fourth quarter will be better than other urban agglomerations, and other urban agglomerations have a high concentration of demand in the early release. Or face a relatively deeper correction.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
All rights reserved by Sino-Singapore Jingwei. Without written authorization, no unit or individual may reprint, extract and use in other ways.