China News Agency, Shanghai, September 26 (Reporter Wang Enbo) Lu Lei, deputy director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China, revealed in Shanghai on the 26th that the People's Bank of China and the Foreign Exchange Administration are studying in depth the main content and key links of promoting capital account opening in the next five years. .
Lu Lei said at the Shanghai Summit of the Global Wealth Management Forum that day.
He said that in the long run, it is China's established reform orientation to steadily and orderly promote the opening of capital and financial projects centered on the opening of financial markets.
According to Lu Lei, in response to the logical orientation of China’s capital account liberalization in the past 30 years of “inflow first and then outflow, long-term first then short-term, first direct and then indirect, first institutions and then individuals”, relevant parties have compared the liberalization of OECD capital flows. General rules: In the 91 negative lists, 86 of China have achieved varying degrees of opening up.
According to the statutory measurement standards of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), among the 40 capital item sub-items of the seven categories, 37 of China have achieved varying degrees of openness; as of June this year, the degree of openness was 66.4%.
According to the actual measurement standards of the IMF, China’s above-mentioned openness reached 70% in 2019, an increase of 8 percentage points from 2011; the openness of direct investment was as high as 91.7%, capital and currency markets were 64%, derivatives and other instruments were 50%, securities Investment openness (that is, the proportion of foreign investors' securities investment in GDP) is 14%.
This in turn shows that China's financial market still has a huge open potential.
Talking about recent opportunities in the Chinese market, Lu Lei quoted a Morgan Stanley report saying that from 2020 to 2030, the average annual inflow of China’s stock and bond markets may reach US$100 billion to US$300 billion, and the proportion of the renminbi in the world’s reserve currency may vary from 2% rose to 8% to 10%, which means that offshore RMB scale and return investment demand continue to maintain high growth.
He believes that from the current conditions, the global "wide currency, low interest rate" provides China with the advantages of RMB-based financial market development; major economies maintain zero or negative interest rates, and China and major developed economies maintain higher interest rates. The difference determines the attractiveness of RMB assets in the near future.
The fundamentals of China's economic development and reform dividends have created a strong attraction to global capital.