At present, the housing market is not declining, and local regulation continues.
But at the same time, the differentiation between regions is also very obvious, including Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Jinan, Zhengzhou and other places have seen a significant decline in house prices.
In contrast, the second-hand housing market can better reflect the actual situation of changes in housing prices in various places due to the influence of price restrictions, sales restrictions, and structural factors in the price of first-hand housing.
According to the “Changes in the Sales Prices of Commercial Residential Buildings in 70 Large and Medium-sized Cities in August 2020” announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, the prices of second-hand houses in 27 of the 70 cities fell year-on-year in August.
House prices in 27
cities fell back a year ago
Data shows that in August, several key cities in the Beijing-Ring area among the second-tier cities and several central cities in Shandong and Henan declined significantly.
Among them, Tianjin second-hand housing prices fell 0.8% month-on-month and 4.5% year-on-year; Shijiazhuang fell 0.4% month-on-month and fell 3% year-on-year; Jinan fell 0.5% month-on-month and fell 2.9% year-on-year; Zhengzhou fell 0.1% month-on-month and fell year-on-year 4.4%; In addition, although second-hand housing in Taiyuan and Qingdao rose month-on-month, they also fell year-on-year.
Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute, analyzed to a reporter from China Business News that many cities in the north have indeed seen a decline in second-hand housing prices this year.
From the data of 58 Anjuke Online, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang have experienced a small downward trend in housing prices since 2018.
From the listing price (average price) of second-hand housing, this trend is particularly obvious.
Recently, the chairman of Henan Real Estate Chamber of Commerce held a closed-door meeting in Zhengzhou.
Regarding the topic of "discount sales by real estate companies", everyone's views are generally the same-that price reduction promotions do more harm than good to the development of the entire industry.
However, whether to cut prices is ultimately the market's final say.
According to local media reports, in September, Zhengzhou's real estate sales promotion battle has begun. Some real estate prices are lower than three years ago, and there are frequent actions of zero down payment, low down payment, and hardcover changes.
Among them, in a large market in the high-tech zone, the current refined decoration price after discount is about 13,500 yuan/㎡, and the average price for the first opening in November 2016 was 14,500 yuan/㎡. It can be seen that the price is lower than three years ago, with a drop of 1,000 yuan/㎡.
Zhang Bo said that the regional differentiation this year is mainly caused by the supply and demand relationship in different cities.
The downward trend of second-hand housing prices in many cities has begun to show signs of growth in 2018. The main reasons include the previous increase in housing prices. After the regulation, the improved demand in some cities has been significantly suppressed, and the excessive concentration of real estate development investment has led to long-term high supply. .
Taking Tianjin as an example, Zhang Bo analyzed that the decline in the property market in Tianjin can be traced back to the regulatory policies introduced in March 2017. What really caused the property market to cool down was the gradual imbalance of supply and demand, especially the growth rate of population inflow in the past two years has not kept up with market supply. increase.
In 2018 and 2019, Tianjin’s net population inflow was 27,300 and 22,300 respectively. At the same time, from the perspective of Tianjin’s real estate investment in the past two years, Tianjin Real Estate completed real estate development investment of 242.449 billion yuan in 2018, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, and completed in 2019 Investment in real estate development was 272.782 billion yuan, an increase of 12.5%.
Therefore, under the background of the oversupply of new houses in Tianjin, it is normal for the second-hand housing market to cool down.
The trend in Shijiazhuang is also quite similar.
According to Zhang Bo's analysis, after two adjustments were introduced in March and September 2017, the Shijiazhuang property market has gradually returned to rationality. The talent settlement policy in April 2018 has added some heat to new houses, but in the end house prices have gradually declined.
Obvious regional differentiation
Compared with the Beijing area, Central Plains, Shandong and other places, several major cities in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, such as Hangzhou, Ningbo, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, have experienced rapid population inflows in recent years. Since last year, the overall housing market in these regions has also been relatively hot. .
Zhang Dawei, chief market analyst of Centaline Property, analyzed to a reporter from China Business News that after the property market experienced a general rise in 2016 and 2017, the differentiation between regions has been very obvious since last year.
Behind this differentiation is essentially changes in industry and population.
In developed regions such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the development of high-tech industries and emerging industries has been very prominent in recent years, with rapid population inflow and high overall economic vitality.
Take the Science and Technology Innovation Board as an example. Since the gate opened for more than a year, listed companies have been concentrated in several key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Suzhou, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou.
According to the data, as of July 23, there were 140 listed companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and nearly 80% were distributed in Jiangsu (29), Beijing (25), Guangdong (22), Shanghai (20), Zhejiang (11) ) The five most dazzling economic regions.
Associate Professor Ding Changfa of the Department of Economics of Xiamen University analyzed to a reporter from China Business News that in recent years, as my country’s economy has entered a new normal, traditional industries that were more profitable before 2013 were saturated and faced bottlenecks in market development. The demand is relatively large, so where these industries are more prominent, there will be more talents and populations.
Ding Changfa said that high-tech industries and emerging industries generally need high-end talents, and their income is relatively high, and young people are mainly concentrated in emerging industries.
Nowadays, the main body of buying houses is young people. Therefore, Beijing, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and other places with developed emerging industries have stronger purchasing power in the property market.
He also said that many central cities in the north are lagging behind in industrial development, but the land supply is huge.
In contrast, the emerging industries in the southeast coast, especially the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, have developed well, but the increase in land supply lags behind the increase in demand, so housing prices in these places are facing upward pressure.
The small city in the northeast has fallen by nearly 10%
Outside of North China, second-hand housing in several cities in southwestern Guizhou, Sichuan, and the central two lakes also experienced a year-on-year decline.
According to Zhang Bo's analysis, the characteristics of house price changes in the central and western regions are very obvious. Provincial capital cities are generally hot. In August, house prices have risen to varying degrees from the previous month, while the third and fourth-tier cities in the province show a pattern of mixed fluctuations.
The rise in provincial capital cities is mainly affected by market enthusiasm, while other cities in the province where housing prices have fallen are mostly affected by supply and demand. On the one hand, market supply in some cities has continued to maintain a certain high level, on the other hand, the demand for house purchases has not increased significantly. The transaction of new houses also puts pressure on the second-hand housing market.
Regional differentiation is also reflected in Guangdong, the largest economic province.
In Guangdong, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Huizhou in the Pearl River Delta region all experienced significant house price increases in August, while second-hand houses in Zhanjiang in western Guangdong fell 4.2% year-on-year, and Shaoguan fell 2.5%.
This differentiation is closely related to the regional differences in Guangdong's economic development.
The analysis report of the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics shows that in recent years, although the eastern and western wings of Guangdong have focused on building industrial clusters such as biomedicine and green petrochemicals, the northern ecological development zone has accelerated the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and the high-end industries have achieved rapid development. There is still a big gap compared to the core area.
In 2019, the total value added of advanced manufacturing in the east and west wings and the northern ecological development zone accounted for 38.1% of the above-scale industries, 21.1 percentage points lower than the core area of the Pearl River Delta.
Among the 27 cities, Mudanjiang in Heilongjiang Province experienced the largest decline.
Data show that in August Mudanjiang second-hand housing fell 1.6% month-on-month and 9.3% year-on-year, a drop of nearly 10%.
Mudanjiang is also a typical case of a shrinking city in the northeast.
Yi Baozhong, a professor at the Northeast Asia Research Institute of Jilin University, analyzed to a reporter from China Business News that the industrial development in the Northeast is relatively weak and the population is out of population. Therefore, real estate is not supported by population and urbanization.
Especially in most small and medium-sized cities in the Northeast, there is not much rigid demand.
According to the "Analysis Report on the Population Development Status of Mudanjiang" released by the Heilongjiang Provincial Statistics Bureau at the end of July this year, according to the combination of the population information system of the Public Security Bureau and the investigation, as of the end of 2019, the permanent population of Mudanjiang was 2.605 million.
Compared with the data of the sixth census in 2010, the permanent population has decreased by 194,000 in the past ten years, with an average annual decrease of 22,000.
According to the report, due to the underdeveloped economy, small economic aggregate, unreasonable industrial structure, and low level of urbanization in Mudanjiang, the lack of major projects that can affect the city’s economic development has led to a lack of attractiveness in terms of remuneration, benefits, and benefits. Intensified the exodus, especially the outflow of young and middle-aged people.
Among them, the "post-90s" and "post-00s" have become the main force of the outflow population, accounting for 27.1%.