The property market is not diminishing, and local regulation continues.
On September 14, Chengdu, which has set a record of nearly 60,000 people, introduced the "15 New Deals on Real Estate" to crack down on hype.
In terms of housing policies, Chengdu has increased the proportion of shack reforms and no-house households lottery. Among them, the lowest proportion of shed reform priority has been increased from 10% to 20%, and the lowest proportion of households without housing has been given priority to the remaining houses after shed reform. Increase from 50% to 60%.
Including Chengdu, as of now, many hot cities have introduced new policies on property market regulation.
According to incomplete statistics, since July this year, 11 provinces and cities including Hangzhou, Dongguan, Ningbo, Inner Mongolia, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Wuxi, Shenyang, Changzhou, and Chengdu have successively introduced tightening policies for the property market.
At the same time, 16 cities accepted the central "window guidance" within two months.
On the 14th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the sales price index of new commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in August, showing that the real estate market in 70 large and medium-sized cities was generally stable.
The month-on-month increase in the sales price of newly-built commercial housing in various tier cities slightly expanded, and the month-on-month increase in the sales price of second-hand housing in second-tier cities fell.
Patching property market control policies
On September 14, the Chengdu Municipal Government’s official website issued the “Notice of the General Office of the Chengdu Municipal People’s Government on Maintaining the Stable and Healthy Development of the City’s Real Estate Market”, which adjusted the land market, financial and credit policies, leasing market, and housing market.
A person in charge of a real estate company surnamed Liu in Chengdu told China Business News that Chengdu’s property market regulation and control policies are similar to those in Hangzhou, and both have increased the preference for households without houses.
"The regulation of the property market in hot cities should give priority to rigid demand as much as possible, and suppressing real estate arbitrage should be a main logic of fine regulation." He said.
On September 12, the third-tier city of Changzhou also began to implement a new real estate regulation and control policy.
For example, in relation to the loan restriction policy, “family who already owns a house and have not settled the loan to purchase a house, the minimum down payment for another loan is 60%”, and the intensity of regulation is not inferior to the down payment ratio of the Shenyang Second Set of 50%.
This is directly related to the continued rise in housing prices in Changzhou.
Based on external data such as Kerui, Changzhou housing prices have dropped a little this year except in February due to the impact of the epidemic. Since March, new houses have risen to 20,000 yuan per square meter, an increase of nearly 20%.
Among the 70 large and medium-sized cities in July this year, Yinchuan ranked first in the country in terms of month-on-month increase in new house prices, with a month-on-month increase of 2%. This is also the third consecutive month that Yinchuan has ranked first in terms of month-on-month increase in new house prices.
On September 8, Yinchuan Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau held the Yinchuan Real Estate Market Regulation Conference and issued a "price limit order" for the real estate market.
For projects that open before September 1, in the short term, the proposed average sales price in September shall not be higher than the average price in August to be regulated in the short term.
In the near future, Yinchuan Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau will refer to the average price filed in August, and put forward price adjustment suggestions for various real estate development companies by business type.
On September 4, the Hangzhou Municipal Housing Security and Real Estate Administration issued the "Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market."
Among them, in terms of the identification standards for homeless families, Hangzhou clarifies that buyers over 30 years of age who are single and have no own housing records within the city’s purchase restrictions, divorced singles for 3 years and have no housing records within the city’s purchase restrictions Buyers who have been at least 3 years old can be considered as families without houses.
Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute, analyzed that since July, cities have continued to tighten their regulatory policies. Many cities including Hangzhou, Dongguan, Ningbo, Shenzhen, Nanjing and many other cities have introduced regulatory measures, and the signs of tightening are obvious. .
From the perspective of house prices in August, the decline in the nation’s market enthusiasm has already been reflected, but house prices in first-tier cities have continued to rise.
A senior analyst in the real estate industry of a medium-sized brokerage firm in East China said that whether it is the recent urban forums, 12 real estate companies forums, or the recent "three red lines" standards for real estate financing, some cities such as Dongguan and Shenzhen have continued to control the property market. Patches collectively reflect the new feature of real estate policy "precise regulation".
"It's not that first-tier and new first-tier cities are the focus of government regulation. Any city with higher housing prices may enter the list of regulation." said Wu Rui, deputy managing director of Savills Shenzhen and head of the Shenzhen investment department.
Shanghai Centaline Real Estate Market Analyst Lu Wenxi told CBN that the property market in various places is cooling.
Judging from the control measures in various places since July, the control mainly focuses on plugging loopholes, such as restricting issues such as false divorce, talent settlement, and social security period. This is also to make up for the original loopholes and shortcomings to ensure the intensity of policy implementation. .
"After the regulatory policies come out, the transaction volume will shrink, but it will be a long-term process of gradual shrinking. It is not ruled out that there will be the possibility of continuing to patch. It is hoped that a mild correction will prevent speculative behavior in property speculation and prevent use. Highly leveraged speculators have caused large fluctuations in house prices." Lu Wenxi said.
Housing prices remain stable and the general trend remains unchanged
Regarding real estate market issues, the central government and relevant ministries and commissions recently convened three consecutive meetings to reiterate three times that "real estate should not be used as a short-term economic stimulus tool", emphasizing adherence to problem orientation, and attaching great importance to new conditions and problems in the current real estate market.
These three meetings involved at least six ministries including the Central Bank, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as more than a dozen hot cities and many large real estate companies.
At the local level, since July, many cities including Dongguan, Ningbo, Shenzhen, Nanjing and other cities have issued policies to tighten the property market regulation.
In the past two months, hotspot cities have introduced a lot of restrictive control policies, including Hangzhou, Wuxi, Shenyang, Changzhou, Yinchuan and many other cities that have introduced property market tightening policies.
For example, many cities such as Dongguan and Changzhou, which are under the control of this round, have a relatively hot land market in the first half of 2020, and the premium rate of land auction transactions continues to rise.
Based on the tracking data of multiple brokerages on mainstream real estate companies, the current inventory is at a historically low level, and there is a strong demand for restocking. Under the environment of loose financing in the first half of the year, real estate companies have actively obtained land to promote a rebound in net debt ratio.
The research report of Huachuang Securities shows that in the first half of the year, the net debt ratio of the real estate sector was 87.9%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points from the end of 2019.
Among them, the net debt ratio of first-tier real estate companies was 64.9%, an increase of 8.3% from the end of 2019; the net debt ratio of second-tier real estate companies was 121.9%, an increase of 4.2% from the end of 2019; the net debt ratio of third-tier real estate companies was 91.9%, compared with 2019 An increase of 4.9 percentage points at the end of the year.
On August 20, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People’s Bank of China held a “Key Real Estate Enterprise Symposium” in Beijing to convey the new financing rules for key real estate companies: the asset-liability ratio of real estate companies after excluding advance receipts should not exceed 70%, and the net debt The ratio shall not be greater than 100%, and the cash short-term debt ratio shall not be less than 1.
The "three red lines" policy has also attracted the attention of many real estate companies.
A person in charge of a TOP5 real estate company in Shenzhen told a reporter from China Business News that based on the background of deleveraging financing and the general trend of refined real estate control, considering the company’s current projects, on the one hand, the overall destocking efforts are considerable; on the other hand, the hot spot The destocking of cities and third- and fourth-tier cities are severely divided.
"In the follow-up, we will still get land, but we will try our best to select more promising cities and projects with better investment returns. We will not go to the third and fourth tiers for land bank expansion. Cash is king."
"Under the background of the'three red lines', paying more attention to operating cash flow indicators should be the common choice of many real estate companies, and it is not ruled out that real estate companies sell some operating properties to ease the tight cash flow." Wu Rui continued.
On the whole, under the continued tightening of the property market control policies, the overall national property market remained stable in August.
Kong Peng, chief statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained that in August, preliminary estimates showed that the sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in four first-tier cities rose by 0.6% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1% from the previous month.
Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.6%, 0.6%, 0.9% and 0.5% respectively.
The sales price of second-hand housing increased by 1.0% month-on-month, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.7%, 0.8%, 1.7% and 1.1% respectively.
The sales price of newly built commercial housing in 31 second-tier cities rose by 0.6% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1% from the previous month; the sales price of second-hand housing rose by 0.4% from the previous month, and the increase was 0.1% lower than the previous month.
The sales prices of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing in 35 third-tier cities rose by 1.0% and 0.6% respectively from the previous month, and the increase was 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous month.
According to analysis by Zhang Dawei, chief market analyst of Centaline Real Estate, from the data on housing prices in 70 major cities across the country, housing prices in 59 cities for newly built houses rose in August, which was the same as the highest point in the third quarter of 2019; housing prices in 70 cities for second-hand housing rose in 47 cities , The same as July 2019.
Lu Wenxi believes that although the month-on-month increase in the housing price index in August has declined, many regions still maintained a trend of month-on-month increase.
Many cities have joined the ranks of regulatory upgrades, mainly to prevent the market from overheating.
The off-season in July and August is not weak, the sentiment of the property market is high, and the transaction base is pushed up.
The "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" itself is a relatively hot traditional sales period in the property market, and the government also hopes to use these policies to show its attitude towards the overheating of the market and prevent irrational behavior.
Zhang Bo said that since home buyers are still optimistic about the market outlook, as long as purchase restrictions and differentiated credit policies do not change, the regulation of cities with high housing market enthusiasm continues to tighten, and the overall stability of housing prices will not change.
In addition, the recent increase in the financial side of the "three red lines" of debt control of real estate companies, the phenomenon of real estate companies in the real estate market in September is expected to openly or covertly discount the phenomenon, while boosting sales volume, while maintaining the overall housing prices smooth.
Author: Wu Junjie ▪ ▪ Lu Yao Lin Xiaozhao