Bureau of People's Livelihood Investigation

  Editor's note:

  This is the People's Livelihood Investigation Bureau, which has never seen people's livelihood.

Follow what you want to follow and what you didn't follow, and investigate what you want to see and haven't seen.

  Chinanews client, Beijing, September 13th (Reporter Xie Yiguan) The glory of 2019 is no longer the glory of 2019. The "Little Chicken" will be retrograde in 2020. The value of the pig brother, who can be obtained by stepping in the past, is soaring. Big Sister Yang is on an equal footing, her value does not rise but falls, and few people buy it, so she can only start big sales.

Data map: "Seabuckthorn chicken" stocked in the mountains of Wenqi Village, Zhuoni County, Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Gansu.

Photo by Shi Jingjing

The price of chicken has plummeted, and the price of chicks has fallen by 45% a year

  If you are a fitness enthusiast, or love to buy chicken, you may find yourself running on the road to "chicken freedom".

  "The chicken thigh is now 12 yuan a catty, and the pipa leg is 13 yuan a catty." In a vegetable market in Xicheng District, Beijing, a merchant selling chicken told a reporter from Chinanews.com, "The price has dropped recently, and compared to the beginning of the year, the price has dropped even more. It’s a lot. At that time, Pipa legs sold for about 18 yuan."

  The fried chicken shop owners are familiar with the price of chicken.

A person in charge of a fried chicken shop said, "Recently, the purchase price has been maintained at 140-150 yuan a box, but it has risen to 160 yuan a box a few days ago, and now it has dropped to 140 yuan a box. Last year's November was much more expensive. , The price of a box of chicken is about 230-240 yuan."

  For chicken price trends, it may be more intuitive from the data.

  According to the designated monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the country’s 500 county fairs, in the first week of September, the national average price of live chicken was 19.84 yuan/kg, down 12.2% year-on-year and 14% lower than the beginning of the year; the average price of white striped chicken was 21.94 yuan /Kg, down 6.6% year-on-year, down 11% from the beginning of the year; the average price of commercial broiler chickens was 3.08 yuan/kg, down 45.4% year-on-year, and down 30% from the beginning of the year.

  In contrast, the price of pork is a lot more expensive.

In the first week of September, the national average price of live pigs was 37.02 yuan/kg, an increase of 42.8% compared with the same period last year and an increase of 10% compared with the beginning of the year.

The national average price of pork was 56.00 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 38.1% and a 9% increase from the beginning of the year.

  It can be seen that at present, the price of pork is more than twice that of white striped chicken.

Fewer people buy when prices fall, and merchants start big promotions

  In a vegetable market in Fengtai District, Beijing, a merchant selling fresh chicken said that this year's chicken sales were not very good.

"Last year, we could sell more than 2,000 yuan a day, and this year, when the most was more than 1,000 yuan, it did not exceed 2,000 yuan."

  In a large supermarket not far from the vegetable market, a variety of products in the chicken section have been promoted.

The reporter noticed that the promotional price of chilled chicken breasts is 15.98 yuan per catty, and the promotional price of three yellow chickens is 11.98 yuan per catty.

The picture shows the supermarket staff introducing the price of the whole chicken.

Photo by Xie Yiguan

  According to the supermarket staff, the price of three yellow chickens has been reduced by half compared to the original price.

  On e-commerce platforms, chicken is also being promoted wildly.

At Meituan, the original price of Chia Tai Chilled Chicken Drumsticks (260g) was 9.9 yuan a catty, and the current price is 5.99 yuan; the original price of Chia Tai single frozen chicken wing root (500g) was 17.8 yuan a catty, and the current price is 11.9 yuan.

  Promotions are not only reflected on chicken, but also chicken products.

Recently, chain catering companies such as KFC and McDonald's have launched preferential activities, and chicken is the well-deserved protagonist.

  For example, KFC’s original chicken 80th anniversary event launched a half-price bucket of original chicken, and recently launched "39 yuan a bucket of happiness", featuring 39 yuan ten wings a bucket and 39 yuan 5 fried chicken buckets; McDonald’s 88 gold powder festival, "Buy one get one free for crispy chicken" and "39 yuan for 11 pieces of fried chicken."

  "Because the price of chicken is cheap, the cost of the product has dropped, so the fried chicken in the store has been engaging in activities recently." said the person in charge of the fried chicken shop.

Why is "pork expensive, chicken cheap"?

  Obviously chicken and pork are frequent customers at the table, why is the price "chicken is not as good as pig"?

According to market analysis, the "chicken cycle" may be an important factor.

  Similar to the "pig cycle", the chicken cycle is also a repeated process of "production capacity decline-price increase-breeding increase-supply increase-meat price decline", and this round of chicken cycle is also affected by the resonance of African swine fever and other factors.

  Looking back on the past few years, in 2016, the boom market stimulated the increase in the production capacity of the poultry breeding industry; in 2017, the industry market entered a trough under the H7N9 influenza epidemic at the beginning of the year. After 2018, the production capacity of poultry farming relative to poultry slaughter is short, and the price of poultry farming has risen and the profit of the poultry farming industry has recovered.

  Entering 2019, although the amount of poultry farming is higher than in previous years, the shortage of pork caused by African swine fever has stimulated the alternative supply of poultry meat, and the poultry industry is still in a favorable state of high prices.

The picture shows the chicken section in the supermarket.

Photo by Xie Yiguan

  The person in charge of a chicken breeding company in Xiaogan, Hubei told reporters that the industry has begun to boom in the second half of 2018 and the company is still profitable in 2019. However, due to the influx of many people into the chicken industry, the market supply has increased, coupled with the catering industry under the epidemic Affected, students also attend classes at home, resulting in insufficient chicken consumption. This year's breeding efficiency is not good.

  According to data from the professional version of Tianyancha, as of September 11, in accordance with the industrial and commercial registration, my country has added more than 63,000 chicken breeding and chicken breeding-related companies in the first August of this year, an increase of 46.9% over the previous year.

  "The two consecutive years of upward economic growth have led to a significant overcapacity in the industry. In the first half of 2020, the stock of ancestral breeders and parent breeders in the country reached the highest level in the past five years." New Hope, a leading agricultural and animal husbandry company, reported in the semi-annual report. According to China, “As the situation of African swine fever has gradually stabilized, coupled with the weakening of demand caused by the new crown epidemic, the poultry cycle has begun to show a significant downward trend compared to the pig cycle.”

  According to New Hope, the price of commercial chicken seedlings began to fall sharply after reaching a high in nearly a year in October 2019. By June 2020, it fell by 77%, and the price of chicken meat also fell by 25% during the same period.

  Therefore, some netizens uttered for the chicken: "I can't help but let my life fall."

Pork prices have fallen back, and chicken has worsened the situation?

  In August, the year-on-year and month-on-month increase in the national consumer price (CPI) decreased.

Among them, the CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the main driving force of the CPI-the price increase of pork fell sharply by 33.1 percentage points year-on-year to 52.6%.

  The wholesale price of pork in the national edible agricultural product market has been declining for four consecutive weeks. Tang Renshen Chairman Tao Yishan even stated recently, “The big pig farmers in the pen have already predicted that by 2022, the domestic meat price will fall to 10 yuan. I am even more pessimistic. It is entirely possible for the price to fall to 4-5 yuan."

Xue Jiapei, a single-handed young man from Zhijiang, Hubei, uses the existing mountain resources behind his house to develop native chicken breeding.

Zhang Yuanshe

  If the value of "Second Brother" plummets, will chicken prices be further hit?

  "The price of chicken will be stable and slightly adjusted within a short period of time, and the fluctuation will not be very large." Gao Xiang, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, told the reporter of Chinanews.com that the overall market in the fourth quarter is still weak. Will be released further.

  Minhe Shares, the largest parent-generation broiler breeder cage-raising company in China, stated in the semi-annual report that with the recovery of economic conditions, the industry is expected to have better development in the second half of the year. In addition, during the epidemic, many places have upgraded the control of the live poultry market. , Increasing centralized slaughter to promote cold fresh and frozen products, and the market for safe and hygienic white feather broiler cuts has greater room for development in the future.

  However, due to the drop in chicken and chicken prices, Minhe shares, which more than tripled its net profit last year, had a net profit of 232 million yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 73.26%.

Last year, the net profit of Yisheng shares attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased by nearly 5 times, a year-on-year decrease of 77.42%.

  "From 2018 to 2019, the entire farming end will be more profitable. This year, the farming end companies will have mutual profits and losses. There is no time when the losses are particularly high." Gao Xiang said that the current loss-making hatcheries and farmers can still accept it, and the production will be reduced in a short time. The situation is relatively rare.

But if this kind of not particularly good market lasts for a long time, some companies may slowly reduce production.

  Have you bought chicken recently and how much cheaper?