The pork price fell to four or five yuan in the next year?

Breeding companies: meat prices falling below the breeding cost line cannot be sustained

  News from our newspaper (Reporter Zhang Qin) Just as the price of pork continues to be at a high level, a statement that "the price of pork may fall to four or five yuan" is quite eye-catching.

However, some breeding companies responded to this, saying that the price of meat has its own rules, and the situation of substantially lowering the cost of breeding is unlikely to continue.

  Recently, Tang Renshen Chairman Tao Yishan made a forecast to the outside world, saying that the price of pork will turn in early next year.

"With the start of a new wave of pig cycle, live pig production capacity will face surplus. Large pig farmers in the pen have already predicted that the domestic meat price will fall to 10 yuan by 2022. I am even more pessimistic, when the meat price will fall to 4 to 5 yuan. Yuan is completely possible.” In this regard, many domestic “pork stocks” have fallen sharply recently.

Take New Hope as an example. After falling by 7.13% the day before yesterday, it fell again by 5.73% yesterday.

As of yesterday, it has fallen sharply for two consecutive trading days.

  In this regard, Zhang Minggui, the new president of New Hope, expressed doubts about the "four to five yuan meat price" at the analyst meeting. "From the perspective of the practitioner, it cannot withstand scrutiny. Once the pig price falls below 20 yuan, it will fall. Most of the breeding cost line has been broken, and most of the companies and farmers that have expanded their production will choose to wait and see or clear it. It is impossible to continue to fall to the level of 4 to 5 yuan." And Liu Yonghao, chairman of the New Hope Group, said earlier this month. Zeng said that the current pork price is very high due to the reduction in quantity, and the current price is still more than 36 yuan per kilogram, which is much higher than the normal price of 14 yuan per kilogram.

He said that with technological advancement, organization in place and a large amount of capital investment, live pigs are now recovering. I believe that after the middle of next year, pork prices will gradually return to normal prices.

However, in an interview with a reporter from Beijing Youth Daily yesterday, a relevant person from the New Hope Group expressed that they would not respond to this again, "do not want to become a war of words."

  The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, Fu Linghui, recently expressed his views on the current domestic pork price trends at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office. He believed that pork prices will remain high for a period of time.

In this regard, he analyzed that the increase in pork prices is mainly due to two factors: on the one hand, due to the gradual recovery of catering services as companies resume work and production, the demand for catering-related pork has increased; on the other hand, it is due to the southern flood in July. It has an adverse effect on the production and distribution of live pigs, and has affected the price increase of pork.

  He said that since last year, due to some unreasonable restrictions on breeding, the production capacity of pigs has been affected to a certain extent. At present, governments at all levels increase the production capacity of live pigs in a timely manner, and the number of live pigs on hand is increasing seasonally. "However, from the perspective of supply, the production and supply of live pigs are still in tight balance, and prices will continue to run at a high level for a period of time, but generally speaking, it is unlikely that pork prices will rise sharply."