In 2021, Russia's national debt will approach 20% of GDP.

This was announced on Tuesday, September 8, by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov during his speech at the Strategic Session of the Moscow Financial Forum.

“Next year we will approach the line of about 20% of debt to GDP.

We believe that this is not a dangerous level, but it would probably be inappropriate to go beyond it, ”the minister said.

Note that today Russia's debt burden remains one of the lowest in the world.

According to the American Institute of International Finance, in the first quarter of 2020, the country's public debt amounted to only 14.3% of GDP.

Meanwhile, in recent years, the Russian financial authorities have noticeably increased borrowing along with budget spending to eliminate the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.

“We had, of course, to dramatically increase borrowing, we had to resort to our safety cushion - the National Welfare Fund (NWF), we had to prioritize spending.

Indeed, this year we will have a budget deficit of about 4% of GDP, and initially it was planned to have a surplus of slightly less than 1% of GDP, ”Siluanov said.

It is noteworthy that back in July, the Ministry of Finance estimated the possible budget deficit in 2020 at about 5% of GDP.

In many respects, the change in the forecast is due to a gradual recovery in business activity and an improvement in the filling of the treasury.

Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the Center for Market Research at the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, NRU HSE, spoke about this in an interview with RT.

“The losses from the suspension of the economy, the interruption of supply chains, restrictions on the movement of passengers and goods were not as dire as they were estimated in April, during the peak of the pandemic.

The industry, on which the GDP largely depends, has already begun compensatory growth.

Naturally, if the industry increases its pace, the financial condition of enterprises improves, profits grow, which means that tax collection to the budget increases, "Ostapkovich explained.

According to Anton Siluanov, in 2020 the Russian economy may shrink by less than 4%.

At the same time, the observed decline in GDP turned out to be more restrained than in a number of other states.

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said this on the sidelines of the forum.

“Contrary to negative forecasts, the decline in Russia was not as deep as in many countries of the world.

And the recovery processes are even more dynamic.

First of all, thanks to the timely decisions of the president and the actions of the government, and, of course, the professional work of many representatives of the business community, including the financial sector, "Mishustin emphasized.

As the head of the Cabinet of Ministers noted, the government promptly took a number of measures that made it possible to support the population and business in a difficult period.

In particular, we are talking about providing credit holidays, as well as soft loans for companies and entrepreneurs.

  • RIA News

  • © Alexey Maishev

According to the latest data from the Ministry of Economic Development, within the framework of three concessional lending programs, Russian banks have approved loans to businesses totaling more than 1 trillion rubles.

Companies affected by the coronavirus have issued almost 38 thousand interest-free loans in the amount of 98 billion rubles, almost 175 thousand loan agreements at 2% per annum in the amount of 388 billion and 9 thousand agreements at a rate of 8.5% per annum for 637 billion rubles.

Recall that the money received by the enterprise must be used to pay salaries to staff at the rate of one minimum wage (12,130 rubles) per employee.

At the same time, the loan itself can be partially or completely written off if employers keep their jobs.

Also, the preferential programs of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade made it possible to restructure loans for citizens, as well as small and medium-sized businesses for a total amount of 238 billion rubles.

"In addition, the most effective measures are the provision of tax deferrals to entrepreneurs, payments to families with children, as well as a reduction in the key rate by the Central Bank," said Alexander Abramov, head of the laboratory at the Institute of Applied Economic Research, RANEPA, in a conversation with RT.

As a reminder, in July the Central Bank cut its key rate to the minimum for the entire post-Soviet period (down to 4.25% per annum).

At the same time, in the near future, the regulator may continue to reduce the indicator.

This was stated by the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina within the framework of the Strategic Session of the Moscow Financial Forum.

“We have some space for easing monetary policy, but everything will depend on how (the situation -

RT

)

develops

with the pandemic, with the economy as a whole, with inflation,” Nabiullina said.