rise! rise! rise! It has risen for 8 consecutive months, and also hit a 6-year high! "Corn" is crazy too?
Since the beginning of this year, corn futures have continued to rise for eight consecutive months, starting from 1900 points in January and reaching 2366 points on July 31, a record high in 6 years, with an increase of 21.56% during the year.
Southern corn is divided into spring corn and summer corn according to the different planting time. It is the harvest season of spring corn now.
Jining, Shandong: A bumper harvest is in sight
Corn futures hit a 6-year high
In Fangwangzhuang Village, Wenshang County, Jining City, Shandong Province, the grower Fanghua told reporters that he himself contracted 450 acres of land for corn planting this year, one third of which is spring corn.
Fanghua, a planter in Fangwangzhuang Village, Wenshang County, Jining City, Shandong Province: 140 acres of spring corn and 300 acres of summer corn.
The overall output was much better than expected.
Yang Zhiliang is also a corn grower in Fangwangzhuang Village. He still has freshly harvested spring corn stacked in front of his house. He told reporters that this year's spring corn yield is good, and summer corn is expected to have a good harvest.
In the past two years, in addition to planting corn, he also raised 200 pigs. Every year, he kept a part of the grain as feed. Last year, he kept 20,000 catties of corn, and the price of corn rose all the way. He felt that the price was right. He also sold part of the corn. Get out.
Yang Zhiliang, a grower in Fangwangzhuang Village, Wenshang County, Jining City, Shandong Province: Last year it was sold at 9.7 yuan/jin. After the Spring Festival, it was sold at 1.05 yuan. Later, the price increased. Now the market price is the lowest at 1.2 yuan/jin.
With the listing of spring corn, corn trading began to be active, and the price also showed a trend of volatility adjustment.
Relevant data shows: On September 1, the national average transaction price of corn was 2233 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan per ton from the previous trading day.
The transaction price of corn in non-corn producing areas in the south is relatively high. The transaction price in Guangdong and Fujian is around 2350 yuan/ton. The price in the main corn-producing areas in the north is relatively low, and the purchase price in the northeast is about 2200 yuan/ton.
Alternate new and old corn
Grain-receiving companies are worried about price pressure on inventory
Under normal circumstances, more than 70% of my country's annual corn output is used for processing feed. Under the background of rising corn prices, what is the corn inventory of feed companies and what pressures do breeding companies face?
Cui Wenming, a grain purchaser in Beichang Village, Bincheng District, Binzhou City, Shandong Province, has been in the corn business for 17 years. He purchases about 20,000 tons of corn each year.
He told reporters that the price of corn has been rising this year, but recently he has sold all the corn he saved.
Now is the time when corn is new and old. In addition, the spring corn output only accounts for 30% of the annual corn output. Last year's corn sales on the market have come to an end, and the supply of corn is tight.
Cui Wenming, a grain harvester in Beichang Village, Bincheng District, Binzhou City, Shandong Province: One-fifth of spring corn was purchased.
There are many summer corns, but few spring corns, and spring corn will be available in large quantities in mid-September.
We receive about 10,000 jin a day, and at the highest peak, we receive more than 200 tons a day.
The reporter learned that corn accounts for more than 60% of the feed. The continuous expansion of my country's breeding scale this year has also increased the demand for corn. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the country’s live pig inventory increased by 4.8% month-on-month in July for 6 consecutive months. Growth, an increase of 13.1% year-on-year.
In July, the total stock of laying hens nationwide was 1.399 billion, an increase of 26 million or 1.89% from the 1.373 billion last month.
A person in charge of a feed production company in Binzhou City, Shandong Province told reporters that due to the recent high corn prices and the fact that spring corn has been on the market, there is uncertainty about the price trend of corn, and their corn inventory is very low.
Shandong New Vision Ranch currently has 11,900 dairy cows and 1,500 new ones this year. The person in charge told reporters that 30% of the dairy cow’s feed comes from corn green reserves. Due to the high corn price this year, the supply of corn green reserves is expected to be affected. Plan to reduce the acquisition volume.
Yao Yuanzhe, general manager of Victoria Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd., Dezhou City, Shandong Province: This is an increase of about 40 yuan from our purchase price of one ton last year. While ensuring safe stock, we have reduced the corn green reserve stock.
We collected 80,000 tons last year, and this year we will purchase and store at 75,000 tons, so that the normal ration supply of the cattle can be achieved.
Summer corn yield is optimistic
Analysts are still optimistic about prices
In 2019, the planting area of corn in my country exceeded 630 million mu, with a total output of 260 million tons. This year's spring corn harvest is good, and summer corn will gradually mature and go on the market in one month. What about the growth of summer corn?
How will the subsequent corn price trend change?
The staff of the Corn Research Institute of Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences told reporters that the current summer maize blooming and pollination period has passed smoothly. In addition, the rainfall is relatively sufficient and the temperature during the maize growth period is relatively high. The output of summer maize will be more optimistic.
Meng Zhaodong, a researcher at the Corn Research Institute of the Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences: The planting area in Shandong this year is about the same as in previous years, between 58 and 60 million mu.
Because this year's planting quality is relatively good, the overall yield will be high. The good plots have a yield of about 650 kg per mu, and the poor plots have an average yield of more than 440 kg per mu. The situation this year is better than in previous years.
When the reporter visited Binzhou City and Jining City, where corn planting is concentrated in Shandong Province, local growers also said that the growth of corn this summer is better than last year.
The market price of corn depends on the relationship between supply and demand. If the supply is strong, the price of corn will fall; if the demand is strong, the price of corn will rise.
According to data from the National Grain and Oil Information Center, from 2020 to 2021, the new supply of corn will be 268 million tons and the total consumption will be 293 million tons. The corn supply gap will reach 25 million tons.
Industry insiders believe that although summer corn is expected to increase production, it will not change the tightness of the corn market after the listing.
Zhou Junyu, an analyst at the Agricultural Products Department of Everbright Futures: The market's estimate of the new corn price is relatively high. The general reference is the price of the old corn currently being auctioned, which is around 2,000 yuan/ton.
In the short-term, if corn is concentrated on the market, it will definitely have a certain impact on prices, but in the medium and long term, it will not have much impact on corn prices. The tight supply and demand pattern is here.