More than 50% of private equity holdings and more than 80% of institutions believe that September will usher in opportunities to adjust positions
Our reporter Wang Ning
Private equity adjustment is one of the references for ordinary investors to invest. In September, the overall position of private equity has undergone new changes.
On September 1, the latest data obtained by a reporter from "Securities Daily" showed that Rongzhi·China Hedge Fund Manager's September A-share confidence index was 117.18, a decrease of 2.40% from the previous month.
From the perspective of private equity positions, the average subjective long private equity positions of stocks were 79.47%, unchanged from the previous month, and remained at a medium-to-high level overall. At the same time, positions were maintained at the highest level in the past three years after January this year.
Specifically, the proportion of private placements with positions maintained at more than 50% accounted for as high as 96%, and 15% of private placements were in full position; more than half of private placements with positions of more than 80% increased month-on-month; positions remained at 50% to 80%. It accounted for 27%, up nearly three percentage points from the previous month.
Less than half of the holdings of private equity continue to decline
In August, divergence in the A-share market intensified, and the switching of funds was more obvious. Especially during the announcement of the semi-annual report of listed companies, private equity pursued more certainty in the investment direction, and the major indexes remained high and fluctuated as a whole.
Against this background, the A-share fund manager confidence index declined slightly in September, which was lower than in July and August.
According to the latest private equity positions learned by a reporter from the Securities Daily, the current average position of subjective long strategy private equity in stocks is 79.47%, which is basically flat compared to August. The overall position remains at a medium to high level, and the position reached the second only in the past three years. The highest position in January of this year.
Specifically, the number of private equity funds with mid-to-high positions remains at a relatively high level. Private equity with positions of 50% or more accounted for 95.96%. Among them, 15.32% of private equity is currently full, compared to 18.52% in August. A decrease of 3.2 percentage points; the proportion of private equity holdings over 80% was 54.03%, up 1.12 percentage points from 52.91% in August; the proportion of private equity holdings between 50% and 80% was 26.61%, compared to 23.81 in August % Rose by 2.8 percentage points; the number of private placements with positions below 50% continued to decrease.
On the whole, most private placements still maintain relatively high positions, and the number of private placements in full positions has declined, but the number of private placements in medium and high positions is still increasing.
From the point of view of the increase and decrease indicators, the proportion of private placements planned to increase positions has decreased slightly, and the proportion of private placements planned to reduce positions has increased.
At the same time, the September A-share market trend expectation confidence indicator value is 127.02, a decrease of 1.42% from the previous month; of which, 4.03% of fund managers are extremely optimistic, 49.19% of fund managers are optimistic, and 43.55% of fund managers are neutral. According to the opinion, 3.23% of fund managers are not optimistic about the market situation in September.
Private equity analysis believes that in August, the A-shares contracted and closed, and the uncertainty in overseas markets increased. Funds were more difficult to choose stocks in the pursuit of certainty. The policy faced the formation of support from the capital market, and the market system was gradually improved and continued to open. It is a long-term strategy.
At the same time, entering September, with the completion of the semi-annual report disclosure, institutions will once again usher in a better opportunity to adjust positions. The switch between high and low markets is obvious. It is recommended to pay attention to the elasticity of low-level stocks and look for deterministic valuation depressions.
Regarding the September increase or decrease plan, 81.45% of fund managers chose to keep their current positions unchanged, 12.1% of fund managers intend to increase or substantially increase their positions, and 6.45% of fund managers want to reduce their positions.
Part of the private equity conversion cycle
September enters the "golden nine silver ten" moment, can A shares continue to hit new highs after shrinking in August?
Most private equity have different views on this, and their investment styles have also switched.
“The A-share market fluctuated up in August, and the macro recovery signal was further confirmed.” Huang Ziming, the co-investment director of Chuanjiabao Asset Management, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that smart funds have quietly balanced their holding styles. The early “epidemic stocks” and “benefits” The valuation difference between “stocks” is likely to begin to shrink.
From the perspective of monetary policy adjustments, there is not much room for interest rates to rise or fall. They are still optimistic about the growth style, but they will look for opportunities in the traditional cycle sector.
Lin Jiayi, CEO of Xuanjia Finance, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the A-share market has shown a split in its internal structure.
On the one hand, the consumer, pharmaceutical, and technology sectors have experienced relatively high cumulative gains and are expected to usher in a large-scale adjustment, and there will be a mean return to demand; on the other hand, undervalued financial, real estate and cyclical stock valuations have rotated to compensate.
"At present, the undervalued sector is basically a certainty to make up for the increase. As long as the market maintains ample liquidity, the valuation of the undervalued sector will increase. This is also a sector that is highly valued and over-allocated. At the same time, offline placements will also be allocated. Open a new bottom position."
Chen Wenjin, senior researcher of Qianming Assets, said that the overseas epidemic control situation stabilized in September, which will be the node for the next batch of manufacturing companies to resume work and enter the peak period of high-end manufacturing. At the same time, China’s A-share market reforms, including the GEM registration system A series of measures such as the launch of the Kechuang 50ETF will become a short-term market transaction impetus. Therefore, the overall fundamental trend in September is still upward.
In the short term, we are optimistic about maintaining a high level of prosperity in the pharmaceutical, high-end equipment manufacturing, and new energy sectors during the year.