Climb: Oreshkin allowed Russia to enter the top 5 economies of the world in 2020

In 2020, Russia may enter the top 5 largest economies in the world.

This was stated by the presidential aide Maxim Oreshkin.

“Russia has not given up on its goals to enter the top five economies (of the world -

).

If you open the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for this year, you will see that this year Russia will be the fifth economy in the world to rise to this level.

Therefore, from this point of view, we can say that this year it (the goal) has been achieved, ”said Oreshkin during his speech at the forum“ Territory of Meanings ”.

According to him, the revenue base of the budget will be larger than it was planned in June-July.

In turn, the expenditure side of the off-budget funds will be less than previously expected.

At the same time, as Oreshkin emphasized, Russia's entry into the five largest economies in the world was largely made possible due to the global crisis and a significant decline in GDP in other countries.

“As elsewhere in the world, the crisis mainly hit in the II quarter.

By the way, an interesting fact - Russia fell much less than European countries, the United States.

Our fall at its peak, even taking into account the decline in oil production, was 8.5%, ”said the assistant to the Russian leader.

According to the IMF, in 2019, in terms of GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP), Russia took the sixth position and lost to China, the United States, India, Japan and Germany.

PPP GDP is calculated on the basis of the purchasing power of national currencies of states in relation to a list of certain products and services.

“If our GDP is expected to decrease by an average of 5% this year, and the Ministry of Economic Development allows even 4%, then the German economy may fall immediately by 7-8%.

Thus, in terms of GDP at purchasing power parity, we can bypass Germany and come to fifth place, "said Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the Center for Market Research at the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge at the Higher School of Economics, in an interview with RT.

As Maxim Oreshkin noted, now Russia will need to gain a foothold in the "five" most developed economies in the world.

“And then - the fulfillment and achievement of the goal of sustainable economic growth above the world average will allow us to stay in this group,” he added.

Labor rehabilitation

According to Oreshkin, unemployment in Russia peaked in July-August amid the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

Nevertheless, at the moment the situation on the labor market has stabilized and will improve in the near future.

“The recovery phase (of the economy -

)

will begin in autumn

, it is important to support it.

I believe that next year we can return to pre-crisis levels - both in terms of employment and output, ”said Oreshkin.

During the pandemic, the number of officially registered unemployed in Russia increased from 727 thousand to 3.6 million people.

At the same time, today the unemployment rate in the country according to the methodology of the international labor organization is 6.3%.

The head of the Ministry of Labor Anton Kotyakov announced this on Monday.

Note that back in March, the unemployment rate in Russia was 4.7%.

Meanwhile, as Anton Kotyakov stressed, after several months of deterioration in the situation in August, positive trends were outlined in the Russian labor market.

"In the month of August (observed. -

) there was already a rather serious excess of the number of hired workers relative to the number of those dismissed," the minister said during a discussion of measures to increase the employment rate in the United Russia party.

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• © Maxim Bogodvid

In many ways, the outlined recovery of the labor market, experts interviewed by RT, explain the lifting of quarantine restrictions and the gradual return of business to work.

So, for example, according to the analytical agency IHS Markit, in July the growth of business activity in the Russian services sector accelerated to a maximum over the past 12 years.

“In the past months, not just enterprises were closed, but entire service and transport sectors.

Now the lockdowns are over - the economy starts compensatory growth.

And any economic growth determines the dynamics of employment - people are needed who will restore all this.

Salaries will also grow, which will motivate people to look for work, ”explained Georgy Ostapkovich.

In addition, the growth of unemployment in the country made it possible to restrain measures of state support for the population and business.

In particular, we are talking about the provision of credit vacations, direct payments to families with children, as well as soft loans and tax breaks for companies and entrepreneurs.

“The most effective measure was the provision of funds to enterprises in the most affected industries in the amount of one minimum wage (12,130 rubles per employee).

This tool turned out to be so in demand that the Cabinet of Ministers increased the total amount of support four times from the initial one.

Thus, it was possible to save about 10 million jobs, "said Pavel Sigal, vice president of the all-Russian public organization for small and medium-sized businesses" Support of Russia ", to RT.

As the expert noted, a retraining program for citizens who have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus pandemic will also start operating in September.

At retraining courses, Russians will be able to master a new profession for free in three weeks.

According to the forecasts of the Cabinet of Ministers, the support measures will allow employing about 110 thousand people. 

“In these conditions, it is predicted that by the end of this year the unemployment rate will drop to 5%, and in 2021 it will be no more than 3.5-4%,” concluded Pavel Sigal.