- Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, nearly 50,000 redundancies have been envisaged under social plans. This is already three times more than last year.
- These insolvency proceedings should multiply at the start of the school year in the event of cash flow difficulties and too sluggish economic recovery.
- The reduction in traditional partial unemployment and the repayment deadlines for loans guaranteed by the State will increase the pressure on companies.
This is the other dreaded second wave, a very concrete consequence of the recession at work because of the coronavirus pandemic.The social plans of companies should multiply soon, putting tens of thousands of employees on the floor. A movement that has already started, with announcements of layoff plans in sectors stopped dead by the pandemic, such as the automobile, aviation or aeronautics. Some companies are already at the stage of filing for bankruptcy, such as the Alinea sign where the only candidate for the takeover proposes to lay off a thousand employees.
Because of the crisis, economic layoffs are soaring. In total, since March 1, “around 49,000 termination of employment contracts have been considered within the framework of PSE [job protection plans]”, ie three times more than in the same period last year, notes Dares, the statistical institute of the Ministry of Labor. In addition to this figure, there are some 2,700 “small collective redundancies” projects planned in companies with less than 50 employees and / or involving less than 10 people.
"Push" of PES from the start of the school year
If we observe a lull in the social plans envisaged by companies over the first two weeks of August, the summer was still turbulent. "Since the end of June, there has been an acceleration of collective proceedings, due to a less vigorous economic recovery," notes Pierre Ferracci, president of the Alpha group, a cabinet that supports elected staff.
Despite the various aid measures (partial unemployment, loans guaranteed by the State), he expects “a very strong surge in PES between September and December. "The time to negotiate these social plans, the big departures will be seen from November, December ...", forecasts for its part the cabinet LHH Altedia. In an interview with the Ebra press group, this restructuring consulting firm says it works on particularly large social plans, "ranging from 150 to several thousand people".
Social plan triggers
So far, state aid has played its part. And for the time being, the workforce reductions have mostly been “through the cancellation or postponement of planned hires” as well as the non-renewal of fixed-term contracts, notes the Dares. But the fall in GDP - - 13.8% in the second quarter of 2020 - is massive. In the face of this record recession, even healthy companies are likely to falter, as the OFCE recently recalled. Hence the importance of the long-awaited recovery plan, which is to be announced on Thursday, September 3.
In such a context, certain deadlines could thus trigger social plans. From October, "classic" partial unemployment will cost employers more, unless they benefit from long-term partial activity. The other step to take will take place in April 2021, when it will be necessary to start repaying the loans guaranteed by the State.
Conventional ruptures
Beyond employment protection plans, which must respond to an economic reason, companies have other tools to reduce their workforce, such as voluntary departure plans and collective terminations. For its part, the Dares notes that individual conventional ruptures "are clearly increasing".
"In the cases that we are currently seeing, companies want to safeguard their competitiveness," explains Eric Beaudouin, CEO of Oasys, a firm which is responsible in particular for the reclassification of employees and executives. Currently, its employee reclassification missions come from various sectors: retail, transport, tourism, aeronautics, automotive subcontractors, etc.
A probably long transition
Whether or not they are close to filing for bankruptcy, companies are accelerating their changes, to the detriment of employment. “In retail, it is very striking to see companies that are forced to close their stores, as customers have become accustomed to buying online. Outside of the crisis, they would have closed them later, but as these shops have become hotbeds of losses, this process is accelerating. The crisis is not an alibi, but a trigger, ”he notes.
As a result, thousands of employees who will have to be reclassified. “All businesses will be affected by social plans. But for employees who do mono production, or have a very specific qualification, the risk is not to see any prospect of re-employment immediately. So the transition period will be long, ”warns Pierre Ferracci.
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