Chinanews client, Beijing, August 26 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) Under the international "food crisis" warning, will China fall into a food crisis? Is the grain harvest this year? Can food security be guaranteed? Do you want to stock up on food? On the 26th, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a press conference to give an authoritative response.
On August 26, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a press conference. Photo by Xie Yiguan
Grain production is stable and improving
Tang Ke, director of the Department of Market and Information Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that this year's summer grain and early rice have been harvested. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of summer grains this year was 285.6 billion jin, an increase of 2.42 billion jin; the output of early rice was 54.6 billion jin, an increase of 2.06 billion jin, and the output resumed after a decline for seven consecutive years.
"The production of rice and corn throughout the year mainly depends on the autumn grain." Tang Ke pointed out that from the perspective of the agricultural situation of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the area of autumn grain has increased steadily this year. Although local droughts and floods are severe, the post-disaster recovery of production is timely and effective. The growth of autumn grain is generally good, and the trend of stable and good grain production has not changed. If there are no major disasters in the later period, the whole year will be a bumper year.
"This period is a critical period for the formation of autumn grain production. In fact, it is also a time when disasters are prone to occur. There is still one week after the'July 15 (lunar calendar) fixed drought and flood'. Lodging, the early frost in the north, the cold dew in the south, and the threshold of diseases and insect pests.” said Pan Wenbo, director of the Plant Management Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
Pan Wenbo said that the next step will be based on disaster relief to achieve a bumper harvest, implement the later field management measures, and go all out to grab a good harvest of autumn grain, to ensure that this year's grain output is stable at 1.3 trillion catties, and achieve a good harvest of food and agriculture in a well-off year.
Data map: Rice in Heilongjiang Province has entered the filling stage. Photo by Wang Nina
There is no basis for a sharp increase in food prices
Under the influence of factors such as improving downstream demand and active market-oriented purchases, the purchase prices of wheat and corn have risen recently, which has caused people to worry about food prices.
"Generally speaking, the current grain prices in China have been steadily rising, the trends of varieties have diverged, and the price fluctuations of different links have been different. In July, the average price of rice, wheat, and corn in the three grain trade markets was 122.4 yuan per 100 catties. , A month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. Among them, the price of rice has the smallest increase, followed by wheat, and the price of corn has increased significantly. The price of grain in the purchase and wholesale links has increased significantly." Tang Ke said.
In Tang Ke's view, the overall stability of my country's grain prices is supported by fundamentals. On the one hand, the above-mentioned grain production is steadily improving. On the other hand, food stocks are abundant. "In recent years, my country's ration inventory has continued to maintain a high level. The current national rice and wheat inventory levels are roughly equivalent to the annual consumption of urban and rural residents. Although the corn inventory is digested quickly, the market supply is guaranteed."
On the consumer side, Tang Ke pointed out that this year, affected by the epidemic, home consumption of rations increased, but out-of-home consumption decreased, and there was little change in total consumption. After the situation of epidemic prevention and control continued to improve, the consumption of corn forage and deep processing recovered well, but the increase in actual demand was relatively stable. Changes in short-term food demand caused by food hoarding will not have a lasting impact on food prices.
"From the perspective of the later trend, we have a good foundation for ensuring the stable operation of grain prices. Coupled with the sufficient supply and low prices of most major agricultural products such as corn and soybeans in the world, domestic grain prices lack the conditions for a substantial increase. With the harvest of autumn grains on the market one after another, China's grain market is expected to remain basically stable." Tang Ke said.
Data map: Harvesting site in Tancheng County, Linyi, the main production area of summer grain in Shandong. Photo courtesy of Agricultural Development Bank Shandong Branch
No need to rush to stock up on grain and oil
Under the overall deviation of the international food crisis and the agrometeorological year, public opinion on the domestic "grain shortage" has repeatedly occurred. Traders and growers have been hoarding food for sale in some places, and some residents have begun to hoard food.
In this regard, Tang Ke pointed out that in the context of the global pandemic of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the uncertainty in the operation of domestic and foreign agricultural products markets has increased. Some consumers are buying more grains and oils out of risk prevention, and some traders and farmers are optimistic. It is understandable that the market outlook expects to stock up more food. But we must avoid following the trend to prevent waste caused by improper storage, and to prevent losses caused by later price fluctuations.
"From the perspective of the operation of China’s grain market during the first half of this year, due to sufficient grain reserves, high levels of grain and oil processing and transformation capacity, strong grain market regulation and emergency protection capabilities, coupled with a developed logistics distribution system, the domestic terminal grain and oil product market The supply is continuously abundant and the price is basically stable. There is no need for consumers to be overly anxious or even panic buying." Tang Ke said.
The nanometer research team of the Gansu Academy of Sciences tested large areas of nanometer winter wheat and nanometer spring wheat in Henan, Xinjiang and Gansu to improve quality and yield. The picture shows a comparison photo of winter wheat in Xiangcheng County, Henan Province (nano wheat on the right). Photo courtesy of Nano Room, Gansu Academy of Sciences
National food security is guaranteed
The “China Rural Development Report 2020” recently jointly issued by the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the China Social Sciences Press mentioned that by the end of the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, there may be a food gap of about 130 million tons, of which cereals ( The shortfall of the three major staple foods is about 25 million tons. Some people worry about whether this means that national food security will deteriorate in the future.
In response, Tang Ke responded that the food gap mentioned in the report of the Academy of Social Sciences should refer to the gap in production and demand including soybeans, rather than the gap between actual supply and demand. Soybeans are the main source of China's large production and demand gaps and large imports.
"In the future, my country's soybean imports will remain high. By strengthening international economic and trade cooperation, and steadily expanding the source of soybean imports, we can effectively make up for the gap in domestic production and demand and ensure the supply in the domestic market." Tang Ke said.
"At present, China's food security is guaranteed. The per capita occupancy is 472 kilograms, which is far higher than the international food security standard of 400 kilograms per capita. At the same time, under the bumper harvest for many years, stocks are abundant and prices are generally stable." Pan Wenbo pointed out, although Under the balance of the total amount of grain, structural contradictions will exist for a long time. Some grains are imported to adjust the surplus and lack of varieties, but the total amount is too small. The bottom line of domestic grain self-sufficiency and absolute security of rations can be maintained.
"The overall situation of China's food security is good. There is no problem with the current supply, and the medium and long-term supply is guaranteed." Pan Wenbo said that in the future, he will adapt to the new situation and new changes in national food security, while strengthening market control, rationally guiding consumption, and strengthening response The ability to risk challenges. (Finish)