If social distancing is upgraded to three stages, it is predicted that the Korean economy, which had been'saving' compared to other countries, will be seriously shocked.

The third level of upgrade will cease all socio-economic activities except for the minimum essential economic activities.


First of all, the damage to the self-employed and small business owners becomes severe.

At the time of the'first shock' caused by the Shincheonji crisis in March, in Daegu, where urban economic activity was virtually stopped, credit card sales for self-employed persons fell by 49%, and decreased by 29% nationwide.

In the metropolitan area, the center of the coronavirus outbreak, 48% of the 6.4 million small businesses nationwide flock.

If the upgrade proceeds to the third stage, this is why more damage than Daegu in March is expected.


The situation in the United States and Europe, which failed to prevent coronavirus from earlier this year and suffered a'shutdown', an emergency close to a de facto economic and social containment measure, also has great implications for us.

In New York, where the city blockade was issued for three months after the coronavirus outbreak was severe, 1,300 restaurants have gone bankrupt and 470,000 jobs have been lost.

In the United States as a whole, 22 million jobs were lost between February and April, and the unemployment rate is the highest in history. It has been in the 10% range for four consecutive months since April.

Consumption, a major pillar of the US economy, collapsed due to the economic crisis caused by the shutdown and massive unemployment, and the growth rate in the US in the second quarter was the worst ever since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

The growth rate of GDP for the second quarter of gross domestic product was calculated at -32.9%.


In the UK, which also imposed a strong blockade, including restrictions on movement and closure of non-essential sectors since March, GDP in the second quarter of the year decreased by 20.4% compared to the previous quarter. 

It was the worst economic recession in 11 years since 2009, when the financial crisis was severe.

In addition, most European countries such as France -13.8%, Italy -12.4%, and Germany -10.1% showed'negative growth' in GDP in the second quarter.

For Korea, which showed results in corona prevention in the second quarter compared to the United States and Europe, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) made a somewhat promising prospect that Korea's growth rate will record -0.8% this year.

However, there was a condition "if Corona 19 does not spread again".

If the second corona shock occurs globally, it is expected that "Korea could also drop the growth rate to -2.0%."

There are many domestic institutions that have

predicted that if the corona re-proliferates, the goal of'reverse growth' will become serious. Forecasts include the Bank of Korea -1.8%, the Korea Development Institute -1.6%, and the Capital Market Research Institute -1.9%.

However, at the time of setting these forecasts, even the extreme element of the '3rd stage' was not reflected.

If we upgrade to three levels, the impact on our economy could be even greater than these forecasts.


KB Securities predicted that the annual growth rate could drop by up to 0.4 percentage points if the three-step social distancing measures in the Seoul metropolitan area are implemented for two weeks.

Cha Nam-soo, a research fellow at the Federation of Small Businessmen, was concerned that "there could be a disaster subsidy, a survival subsidy, and if the economic preemptive response is not done equally, the small business may not have the strength to withstand."


In order not to go to the third stage of distancing, where a serious blow to the national economic premise is expected, the current second stage of quarantine regulations must be strictly followed.

This is'News Pick'.