Lebanon, a country on its knees

Text by: Paul Khalifeh Follow

10 mins

The successive crises and the catastrophe of August 4, which destroyed part of Beirut, plunge Lebanon into a disorder which risks reaching the point of no return. 

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From our correspondent in Beirut, 

“  Furniture, car, jewelry, we sold everything. We are going with the children to Canada!  "In the aftermath of the double explosion which destroyed part of Beirut on August 4, Hiba and her husband decided to leave Lebanon to"  start from scratch under milder skies  ".

The stories of young people and families who want to leave abound. Everyone knows a neighbor, a friend or a loved one who has chosen to go and start a new life elsewhere. 
Lebanon has become an inhospitable land for many Lebanese. “  It's a cursed country. He will never know peace and stability,  ”says Hiba, in his forties, sadly. Lebanon is above all a country on its knees. Shaken by multifaceted crises since last fall, it is sinking deeper into a destructive chaos every day.

A Breathless System

The country has been hit since last October by the worst economic crisis in its history. The system, artificially kept alive for years with financial engineering invented by the controversial Governor of the Banque du Liban (BDL) Riad Salamé, and loans paid for very dearly, has come to the end of its breath. The whole economy was based on a gigantic Ponzi scheme that collapsed like a house of cards. 

The state budget, the balance of payments, the trade balance… all economic indicators have been in deficit for years. The cash economy, encouraged and institutionalized, has destroyed the productive sectors over the years. Lebanon imported, in 2019, more than 80% of its needs, for 17 billion dollars, and exported only 2.6 billion. 

The funds necessary to finance this system were provided by the diaspora or by private or institutional investors, attracted by the attractive interest rates offered by the banks, which were in turn handsomely paid by the BDL. A large part of the money was used to finance the needs of the State, hostage to a corrupt political class, past masters in bribes, embezzlement, insider trading, patronage and patronage. nepotism. Abuses of power encouraged and covered by the so-called “  political confessionalism  ” system, based on a distribution between Christians and Muslims of political and administrative positions.

The machine broke ten months ago. The Lebanese discovered with amazement that their savings no longer existed except on paper. Banks began to ration withdrawals in foreign currency before stopping them permanently. A renowned Lebanese economist, Dan Azzi, coined the term “Lollar”, which means the Lebanese dollar. These are deposits in US dollars in banks, which in reality are worth only a third of their actual value. In just a few weeks, hundreds of thousands of Lebanese have seen their hard work melt away.

An unstructured protest movement

The situation reached such a degree of deliquescence that the Lebanese let out their anger on October 17th. The protest movement against the political class, accused of corruption and negligence, has grown over the weeks, pushing Prime Minister Saad Hariri to resign on October 29.

However, this movement did not manage to structure itself as a force for change. Measures taken to combat the spread of the coronavirus pandemic have worsened the situation, as it has everywhere in the world. Thousands of businesses and companies have closed and tens of thousands of people have lost their jobs.

►Also read: Why Lebanon is sinking into the economic crisis

The depreciation of the national currency against the dollar destroyed the purchasing power of the population, causing the prices of consumer products to soar. 
Overwhelmed by internal contradictions and subjected to strong external pressure, the government of Hassane Diab , which succeeded Saad Hariri, failed to implement a vast plan for economic and financial reform, which it adopted in forceps in April. Shortages of fuel oil, food products and the tightening of the rationing of electricity turn the daily life of the majority of the Lebanese into ordeal.

"  The political class has plunged the country into political instability and economic bankruptcy and has instituted a culture of corruption," Antoine Sfeir, doctor of international law , told RFI. It is resistant to any modernization and has not carried out any of the reforms required to implement the CEDRE Conference (which granted in Paris, in April 2018, pledges of aid and loans of 11 billion dollars to Lebanon) . It is irrefutable proof of the indifference and irresponsibility of this political class with regard to the interests of the State and the citizens.  " 

Criminal negligence and incompetence

It was in this context that the country was struck by the disaster of August 4. 174 people were killed and more than 6,500 injured in a double explosion of 2,700 tonnes of ammonium nitrate stored in a port hangar, in defiance of the most basic precautionary measures. The cataclysmic explosion destroyed part of Beirut and threw into the streets more than 300,000 people, now homeless. The port is largely destroyed, the city offers an apocalyptic spectacle, as if struck by a devastating earthquake. The material damage is estimated at 15 billion dollars by the President of the Republic Michel Aoun.

This disaster, blamed on the negligence of political leaders and the incompetence of administrative officials, angered the Lebanese. Despite the destruction of part of the capital and braving the danger of the coronavirus, thousands of shocked Lebanese demand, on August 8 and 9, the departure of the leaders and the judgment of those responsible for the tragedy. Mock gallows are erected in downtown Beirut, where dolls are symbolically hung with the effigy of major political figures, including Michel Aoun and Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah. Part of the anger is channeled towards Hezbollah, in particular by Christian figures, such as the leader of the ex-militia of the Lebanese Forces Samir Geagea or the leader of the Kataëb party (Christian right) Samy Gemayel. The latter resigns from Parliament with two other deputies of his formation, in the hope of causing a snowball effect to impose early parliamentary elections. The goal is to regain with its allies the parliamentary majority, lost in the May 2018 election. This majority is today made up of the Free Patriotic Movement (CPL) founded by Michel Aoun, Hezbollah and the Shiite Amal movement, and their allies from different communities.

Samir Geagea and Samy Gemayel pose today as the spearhead of the battle against Hezbollah which they accuse of all the evils and of which they demand the disarmament of the military branch. Hassan Nasrallah's party claims to keep its weapons to defend Lebanon against "  the Israeli danger  ". 
A dozen deputies out of the 128 in Parliament slammed the door but the maneuver was neutralized by the head of the legislature Nabih Berry, who is the most important Shiite political figure in the state. The government, for its part, will not resist the pressure from the streets and the parliamentary opposition. Hassane Diab resigned on August 10 after being let go by Nabih Berry.

The executive power vacuum

Lebanon today finds itself with a vacant executive power, at a crucial moment in its history. And nothing shows that a new Prime Minister will be appointed in the coming days, since Michel Aoun has still not convened binding parliamentary consultations for the choice of a successor to Diab. 

► To read also: "We are not close to having a new government in Beirut"

However, contacts and negotiations should resume on this subject after the deadline for the verdict of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) in the assassination of Rafic Hariri, so apprehended by the Lebanese, has passed without incident. 
The STL said on August 18 that it did not have "evidence" on the responsibility of the leaders of Hezbollah and Syria in the attack of February 2005, and acquitted three of the four accused, suspected members of Hezbollah.

The political crisis comes as the coronavirus pandemic experiences a serious rebound after being contained for the first few months. On Wednesday August 19, the symbolic mark of 10,000 infected people was crossed with 581 new contaminations, bringing the number of cases and 109 deaths to 10,347. This explosion of infections is largely due, according to health authorities, to the demonstrations and chaos following the disaster of August 4. Severely affected by the double explosion with four hospitals out of service in Beirut, the hospital sector is saturated. The government therefore ordered on Tuesday August 18 a confinement of seventeen days, from August 21, coupled with a curfew from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. 

And as if all these misfortunes were not enough to bring Lebanon to its knees, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (Escwa) published alarming figures on Wednesday, August 19. According to this commission, the rate of extreme poverty in Lebanon fell between 2019 and 2020 from 8 to 23%. The Escwa report indicates that more than 55% of the Lebanese population now live in poverty and struggle to meet their basic needs. 2.7 million people are considered poor, earning less than $ 14 a day.

Faced with this nightmarish picture, the Lebanese want to see a glimmer of hope in the coming to Beirut, after the disaster of August 4, of leaders and diplomats from around the world. It was Emmanuel Macron who opened the ball on April 6, followed by many ministers and diplomats, including the number 3 of the US State Department, David Hale.

“  It shows that the world has not completely abandoned us,  ” enthuses Ziad, a business executive who has just returned from Qatar after losing his job. But not all display this optimism. “  Lebanon is located in the heart of an area where a confrontation is taking place linked to the routes of oil and gas and major regional partnerships. Westerners come at the instigation of the Americans to counter the influence of China and Russia,  ”says columnist Ghaleb Kandil. If geopolitical issues of this importance are added to Lebanon's internal problems, the return of stability to the country will be almost an impossible mission. 

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