The month-on-month increase in the sales price of commercial residential buildings fell back in July, and the real estate market prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities were generally stable.
"Housing and living without speculation" has not changed and will not change (Rui Finance)
The sales price index of newly-built commercial housing released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 14 showed that the real estate market prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities were generally stable. From January to July, the national real estate development investment was 7532.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, and a growth rate of 1. Increased by 1.5 percentage points in June. As the central government and the local governments strengthened the regulation, and insisted on the unshakable positioning of "housing to live without speculation", industry insiders believe that the real estate market will gradually stabilize in the second half of the year.
The growth rate has fallen, and house prices have cooled
Statistics on changes in the sales price of commercial residential buildings in July showed that the number of cities with rising housing prices decreased from 61 last month to 59. The sales prices of newly-built commercial residential and second-hand residential buildings in various tiers of cities fell back or the same as last month.
According to Kong Peng, chief statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, in July, preliminary estimates showed that the sales price of newly built commercial housing in four first-tier cities increased by 0.5% from the previous month, and the increase was 0.1% lower than the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen Increased by 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.8%, and 0.6% respectively; the sales price of second-hand housing rose by 0.7% month-on-month, and the increase was 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month. Among them, Beijing remained flat, while Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.5%, 1.6% and 1.2%.
Kong Peng said that in July, various localities will thoroughly implement the deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, adhere to the positioning of houses for living, not for speculation, and do not use real estate as a short-term economic stimulus method, and strive to stabilize land prices, house prices, and stabilize expectations. , Due to the city's policy, one city, one policy, timely scientific and precise control, promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and the real estate market prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities are generally stable.
Specifically, the sales prices of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing in first-tier cities increased by 3.6% and 5.7% respectively year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points respectively from the previous month; the sales prices of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing in second-tier cities both increased year-on-year for 15 consecutive years. The sales prices of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing in third-tier cities rose by 4.5% and 1.8% year-on-year, respectively, and the growth rate dropped by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, both of which were the same or fell for 16 consecutive months.
"This shows that after the central government set the tone for the real estate market in July this year, second-tier cities have actively controlled the real estate market and achieved better performance." Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, analyzed.
Real estate development investment increased by 3.4%
While the month-on-month increase in housing prices fell in July, the completion of real estate development and investment across the country has further recovered, and the decline in the sales area of commercial housing has narrowed.
From January to July, the national real estate development investment was 7532.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, and the growth rate was 1.5 percentage points higher than that in the first six months. Among them, residential investment was 5.5682 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.1%, and the growth rate increased by 1.5 percentage points.
From a structural point of view, residential investment increased by 4.1% year-on-year, office building investment and commercial business housing investment fell by 1.4% and 8.9% year-on-year respectively; from a regional perspective, the central region fell by 3.1% year-on-year, and real estate investment in the eastern, western and northeastern regions , Respectively increased by 4.0%, 8.3% and 2.5% year-on-year.
On the sales side, from January to July, the sales area of commercial housing was 836.31 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, and the rate of decline was 2.6 percentage points narrower than that from January to June. Among them, residential sales area fell by 5.0%, office building sales area fell 21.8%, and commercial business housing sales area fell 18.8%.
Ma Hong, a researcher at the Zhixin Investment Research Institute, believes that in July, under the background of the rebound in real estate sales and start-ups, and a relatively good financing environment, the real estate industry continued to rebound, and real estate development investment became the most outstanding performance in the investment "troika". Industry.
Yan Yuejin said that the current growth rate of real estate development investment is on the one hand related to the active land supply of various regions and the active start of enterprises; on the other hand, it has also played an active role in stabilizing investment, especially the driving effect of fixed asset investment.
Timely and accurate real estate regulation
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, "whether real estate should be used as a means to stimulate economic recovery" has become the focus of public opinion. The real estate work symposium held on July 24 clearly stated that it insisted not to use real estate as a short-term economic stimulus, and insisted on stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations. It directly responded to public opinion because of the city’s policy and one city.
Yan Yuejin said that after the real estate work forum, local governments have continued to tighten control over housing prices, especially from the perspective of stable transaction order, local governments have actively supervised high-priced projects, which has also brought the increase in housing prices under control, reflecting local tensions. Tighten the direction of price regulation.
Thereafter, the Politburo meeting held on July 30 again emphasized the need to adhere to the positioning of houses for living, not for speculation, and to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Since July this year, more than 10 cities including Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Zhengzhou, Dongguan, Nanjing, Ningbo, Changchun and Haikou have introduced tightening policies for the property market. Some cities have experienced partial overheating, and the city government, which is responsible for the regulation and control, introduced timely regulation and control measures to cool the property market, demonstrating the determination of the cities to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
"The epidemic has not and will not change the policy tone of "housing, housing, no speculation"." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, believes that the central government has emphasized the positioning of "housing, housing, no speculation" twice in a week, which shows the central government's attitude towards the real estate market. It is resolute and will maintain policy stability and continuity.
"As the central and local governments continue to promulgate the policies of'stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices, and stabilizing expectations', and local regulation has increased, the increase in housing prices in the second half of the year is generally controllable." Ma Hong said.
Kong Dechen